December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[hlcater]

looks like the GEFS saw the EPS and decided that it needed to out do it.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017121218/384/snod.conus.png

[Niko]

Clear and frigid w temps @ 12F.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

CMC trying to lose the deep western trough now;

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

GFS already looking dramatically different as well. The eastern trough is much deeper this run and the building of a trough in the west is no longer there. Looks to pull a NW flow

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

May have spoken to soon about the GFS. We are on stand-by.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Eh, this run wasn't bad but it wasn't good either. 

[Minny_Weather]

May have spoken to soon about the GFS. We are on stand-by.

I'm just glad it finally brings in Winter before Hour 240. The fact that we are in mid-December and have not hit single digits yet is unprecedented.

[GDR]

Not a bad gfs run again, I’ll take it

[Minny_Weather]

Not entirely so...during the 1915-16 winter; Lincoln did not drop to 19 F or less until December 14, 1915.  So even falling into the teens; not even the single digits; has happened before.

Yeah this year we are lucky we had a cold first half of November to kind of even the playing field and stay away from many warm extremes. I'm hoping the same can be said for December with a cold end to the month. 

 

Also what are you doing with Lincoln stats? That's my job!

[Snowlover76]

Eh, this run wasn't bad but it wasn't good either.

Told ya

[Minny_Weather]

I think the GFS kinda went cuckoo for cocoa puffs on the 00z run with the magnitude of cold it's projecting a few days before Christmas. I'm thinking it was overplayed it and that we'll see some moderation towards some more reasonable kind of cold you'd expect right after a pattern change in future runs. Definitely is eye candy to look at a barney rampage here again.

[OKwx2k4]

You all are going to be glad we didn't waste cold in November.

[james1976]

I will join in here. You can throw dust in my face too.

 

I'll drive 5 hours to get the dust job as well.

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

DR NO AKA EURO saying no to the western trough second time in a row now after the CMC and GFS make major changes tonight as well;

 

[james1976]

Here comes the pattern change....

[Craig-OmahaWX]

gfs_namer_225_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Here comes the pattern change....

Don't be so quick to say its coming. the EURO is completely different, the CMC no longer has the western trough and the GFS has also slightly changed as well. Its 11 days out not holding my breath.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

LOL freaking hilarious. Huge western ridge and the same NW flow through the Great Lakes pattern again. 

 

[james1976]

LOL freaking hilarious. Huge western ridge and the same NW flow through the Great Lakes pattern again.

 

Fire up the grill then. Thats how i look at it if it isnt gonna snow.

[GDR]

[GDR]

Fears are confirmed! Terrible run for Nebraska. 384 hrs of junk!

[westMJim]

Light snow is falling here, the heaver snow is still off to the west of here. With a temperature of 18° all of the snow that falls will cover not only the ground but the roads as well. NWS is thinking about 6” in this area we shall see.  BTY there is about a 60 mile wide area NW to SE that is in a WSW and on either side of that about a 30 to 40 mile area that is in a WWA 

[westMJim]

The snow fall has now picked up in intensity it is close to moderate in intensity  and with a temperature of 19° the snow will not have a problem acclaiming on both the ground and untreated roads (even treated roads will become snow covered) I know some areas near the lake received a good amount of snow yesterday but here in Grand Rapids the official amount was reported at just a trace. In Muskegon they reported just over a half inch at .6” and in the center of the state Lansing had just under a half inch coming in a .4”  Today there will be much more snow that that. With that said it time to look at todays

 

Climatology for today December 13^th     At Grand Rapids, MI

The average H/L for today at Grand Rapids is 35/24

The record high is 61° st in 2015 the coldest maximum is 15° set in 1943

The record low is -6° set in 1958 and the warmest minimum is 48° set om 1920

The biggest snow fall is 6.8° set in 1973 (can we pass that today?)

The most on the ground is 15” set in 1970

Last year the H/L was 26/16 there was .7” of snow and the day started out with 8” on the ground.

[Tom]

Did anyone notice on Gary's blog that he now is using the late Oct GL's bomb (Oct 24th) and comparing it to the Dec 10th pattern???  Wait a minute, he used that same late Oct storm for the early Dec Blitz (Dec 4th-5th)!  If you don't believe me, go back to his archives and check out his Dec 4th post.  He clearly used it and said it is roughly a 42 day cycle (centered around 45 days).  I have my doubts, but that's just my 2 cents.  I'm a Big believe that there is a clear 30-day harmonic and it's showing up again around Christmas eve, more so than it did in late November when the west coast ridge ended up being much stronger.

 

Regarding the potential late weekend system (17th/18th), the 30-day harmonic shines again as there was a juicy storm system that formed in the same position the modeling is suggesting for it to come out of the southern Plains with somewhat of a subtropical connection.  Back on Nov 17th-18th, there was much more blocking and that is not happening this go-around with a + AO, although, there may be some room there (albeit it marginal) for some snow on the northern periphery of the southern wave.

[St Paul Storm]

Just got back from Ireland last night. Great trip, and even had the pleasure of driving across the country on Sunday during a rare snowstorm. Now it’s snowing moderately here in St Paul. Roads becoming covered almost instantly. About 3” on the ground.

 

Hadn’t looked at a model run in 7 days. Reading through the last few pages of this thread has provided some great morning entertainment.

[Tom]

Just got back from Ireland last night. Great trip, and even had the pleasure of driving across the country on Sunday during a rare snowstorm. Now it’s snowing moderately here in St Paul. Roads becoming covered almost instantly. About 3” on the ground.

 

Hadn’t looked at a model run in 7 days. Reading through the last few pages of this thread has provided some great morning entertainment.

Welcome back home!  Glad you had a good trip on the other side of the pond.

[jaster220]

There was a solid 4-8" of LES across the NW flow favored belts of SWMI, mainly from the west side of Kzoo to the lakeshore, with the jackpot zone in the classical ~20 mile stretch from just east of Hartford to Oshtemo. It was still hazard flasher driving conditions at 6:30 last evening. Sharp cut-off as is often the case from W side of Kzoo to the E side. Today's event looks to flip that around nicely. Have current depth about 4" in mby, hoping to double that by the morning..

[Niko]

Currently @ 14F and cloudy. Snow is knocking on my doorstep.

[Tom]

There was a solid 4-8" of LES across the NW flow favored belts of SWMI, mainly from the west side of Kzoo to the lakeshore, with the jackpot zone in the classical ~20 mile stretch from just east of Hartford to Oshtemo. It was still hazard flasher driving conditions at 6:30 last evening. Sharp cut-off as is often the case from W side of Kzoo to the E side. Today's event looks to flip that around nicely. Have current depth about 4" in mby, hoping to double that by the morning..

At least someone is scoring on the snow!  I gotta ask you, but how the heck do you manage to drive all those miles each and every day to and from work?  You must have thousands of miles on your car from all those trips.

[james1976]

6z GFS still looks solid for pattern change after the 21st. Plenty of systems targeting the central CONUS.

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah you can't really make any hasty conclusions after one suite of model runs. They all feed off the same data so 00z GFS and Euro being ridgy doesn't mean too much. It's when they start being consistent that we pay attention.

[OKwx2k4]

Did anyone notice on Gary's blog that he now is using the late Oct GL's bomb (Oct 24th) and comparing it to the Dec 10th pattern??? Wait a minute, he used that same late Oct storm for the early Dec Blitz (Dec 4th-5th)! If you don't believe me, go back to his archives and check out his Dec 4th post. He clearly used it and said it is roughly a 42 day cycle (centered around 45 days). I have my doubts, but that's just my 2 cents. I'm a Big believe that there is a clear 30-day harmonic and it's showing up again around Christmas eve, more so than it did in late November when the west coast ridge ended up being much stronger.

 

Regarding the potential late weekend system (17th/18th), the 30-day harmonic shines again as there was a juicy storm system that formed in the same position the modeling is suggesting for it to come out of the southern Plains with somewhat of a subtropical connection. Back on Nov 17th-18th, there was much more blocking and that is not happening this go-around with a + AO, although, there may be some room there (albeit it marginal) for some snow on the northern periphery of the southern wave.

He can't do it in years like this one. That's the question of the 1917-18, 1978-79, 1983-84 types. LRC doesn't work on them. Not until it's already past winter.

[Snowlover76]

LOL freaking hilarious. Huge western ridge and the same NW flow through the Great Lakes pattern again.

 

Again. I told you guys this yesterday and I got flamed for it. There is no reason to be hopeful that this winter will turn around. None. End of story.

[Snowlover76]

Yeah you can't really make any hasty conclusions after one suite of model runs. They all feed off the same data so 00z GFS and Euro being ridgy doesn't mean too much. It's when they start being consistent that we pay attention.

Yea you can. The pattern change isn't happening in the next 6 weeks. Move on.

[james1976]

Again. I told you guys this yesterday and I got flamed for it. There is no reason to be hopeful that this winter will turn around. None. End of story.

Whats your total season snowfall prediction for yby??

[Snowlover76]

Whats your total season snowfall prediction for yby??

6" and I'm gonna take the under on that.

[Snowlover76]

Keep falling for those fantasy runs that show a pattern change though

 

 

Someday you all will learn.

[Snowlover76]

I love how to some of you getting an average winter in Nebraska is too much to ask for. You get guys like money who do this all the time

[Minny_Weather]

I love how to some of you getting an average winter in Nebraska is too much to ask for. You get guys like money who do this all the time

Are you trolling or do you not see the pattern change next week?

[james1976]

Keep falling for those fantasy runs that show a pattern change though

 

 

Someday you all will learn.

Move to Michigan

[Money]

I love how to some of you getting an average winter in Nebraska is too much to ask for. You get guys like money who do this all the time

All I’m saying is don’t be a hypocrite

 

Complain when the models don’t show anything yet when they do it’s « it won’t happen anyways »

 

Constant whining is stupid