December Weather In the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How is that volcano doing?

[snow_wizard]

I'm peeled to Twitter. Every other minute I'm looking for signs of east coast winter weenies complaining that their winter will end so we can get in on the action.

 

Just remember what usually happens to us in front loaded winter...the rest of the winter sucks in most cases.  Reversals are pretty common between early winter and mid winter.

[snow_wizard]

How is that volcano doing?

 

I'm betting it will blow big based on the seismograph readings.

[stuffradio]

Just remember what usually happens to us in front loaded winter...the rest of the winter sucks in most cases.  Reversals are pretty common between early winter and mid winter.

Late winter is when I want to be gardening though.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not sure what to tell people to convince them we will be fine.  I would gladly bet my next paycheck we get nailed later on.

[ShawniganLake]

Yup...full reversal. For some reason Mother Nature likes to do those.

I don’t want to be around here if it doesn’t. Things will get ugly.

[snow_wizard]

Late winter is when I want to be gardening though.

 

I said mid winter...as in January.

[stuffradio]

I said mid winter...as in January.

I still like front loaded winters better. For example, 2011 was pretty bad... it was full of cold rain in the lowlands. My radishes wouldn't grow in March.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I am not saying the winter will suck. Just always hate to see 2-3 weeks of prime time completely go to waste.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rain continues to increase and the temp is steadily dropping.

[ShawniganLake]

That ridge is anchored in place thru day 15 on the EPS

[MossMan]

We're f*cked.

Agreed.

[WeatherArchive]

Day 9 by far the strongest block the EURO has shown in days

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120212/216/500h_anom.na.png

Why does it look heart shaped? God's love?

[MossMan]

39 and moderate rain!

[HighlandExperience]

Agreed.

Don’t worry this is just a rifle jam. Will get warning shots later.

[Deweydog]

Rain continues to increase and the temp is steadily dropping.

Sounds like prime time stuff!

[TT-SEA]

Ugly day.   

[MossMan]

Ugly day.

Very ugly. Let’s get this ridge pumping!! I will take anything over this 39 degree rainfest.

[TT-SEA]

Very ugly. Let’s get this ridge pumping!! I will take anything over this 39 degree rainfest.

 

I am not happy with either.   

 

I want some deep troughing.   

 

Feels sort of strange knowing that this is the last snow at the ski resorts for the foreseeable future.  

[stuffradio]

Don’t worry this is just a rifle jam. Will get warning shots later.

Trifle jam sounds tasty.

[snow_wizard]

That ridge is anchored in place thru day 15 on the EPS

 

The EPS control has hinted at rising heights over the NE Pacific toward mid month the last couple of runs.  Seems about right.

[snow_wizard]

Rain continues to increase and the temp is steadily dropping.

 

I think some places could see snow before the precip runs out.  Tim has a real good chance.

[stuffradio]

CFSv2 weekly makes us wait until the 6th of Jan for cold rain.

 

[snow_wizard]

CFSv2 weekly makes us wait until the 6th of Jan for cold rain.

 

cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_6_12Z.png

cfs-avg_z500aMean_us_6_12Z.png

 

Most CFS runs have been quite a bit better than that.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF shows Monday being a pretty chilly day with 925mb temps of -2 for the East Puget Sound lowlands and highs in the upper 30s.  That will get the fake cold snap off to a good start.  The gradient angle next week will be highly favorable for trapped cold air to remain in the Central Puget Sound through next week.  Tim will probably have east winds and sunshine.  The pattern being shown usually makes my area one of the coldest in Western WA.

[westcoastexpat]

Just remember what usually happens to us in front loaded winter...the rest of the winter sucks in most cases.  Reversals are pretty common between early winter and mid winter.

 

I don't know, last winter was really awesome. It was the best winter of my life. Snow all season.

[stuffradio]

The RRWT states we will see troughs to begin January.

 

[Deweydog]

The WRF shows Monday being a pretty chilly day with 925mb temps of -2 for the East Puget Sound lowlands and highs in the upper 30s. That will get the fake cold snap off to a good start. The gradient angle next week will be highly favorable for trapped cold air to remain in the Central Puget Sound through next week. Tim will probably have east winds and sunshine. The pattern being shown usually makes my area one of the coldest in Western WA.

I hope Covington area hotels, hostels and airbnb's are ready for the influx of visitors.

[stuffradio]

Next month looks like cold air on average is locked in western Canada, and then overall most of the winter is focused out over west.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This does not have the feel of a great fake cold setup. 

[Phil]

How is that volcano doing?

Grumbling, but can't make up his mind.

[Deweydog]

This does not have the feel of a great fake cold setup.

It's not.

[Phil]

Yeah I am not saying the winter will suck. Just always hate to see 2-3 weeks of prime time completely go to waste.

The vast majority of winters will feature ridgy periods during "prime time". Whatever that means.

[TT-SEA]

I hope Covington area hotels, hostels and airbnb's are ready for the influx of visitors.

 

It is pretty special to wrap up a month of clouds and rain and darkness and transition into a couple weeks of fog and darkness.   I can see why people would flock there.

 

If its going to be sunny and breezy here then I might have to move the family down to Covington for the week.   I would prefer they do not see the sun until February.  

[Phil]

The EPS control has hinted at rising heights over the NE Pacific toward mid month the last couple of runs. Seems about right.

It will happen, but first, the northern periphery of the ridge will split off into northern Siberia during Christmas week, and activate the east-Asian/NPAC jet, which then will accelerate the discontinuous retrogression by longitude across the entire Siberia/NPAC domain, dumping a load of Arctic air into the western US sometime around New Years.

 

At least that's my opinion.

[Deweydog]

18z day three:

 

Ridgy.

[Deweydog]

18z day four:

 

Ridgy.

[stuffradio]

18z day four:

 

Ridgy.

18z day five to six ridgy

[Deweydog]

18z day five to six ridgy

You can't skip ahead!!!

[stuffradio]

You can't skip ahead!!!

I didn't, I create the maps