December Weather In the PNW

[snow_wizard]

The NWS has shaved a little bit more off the forecast temps for this week.

[Farmboy]

Crazy wind here at 4:30 am, snowing lightly, but too windy for it to stick around... Probably 50 mph gusts...

[TT-SEA]

38 and cloudy here which is warmer than when I went to bed.   

[westcoastexpat]

Day 10 signs of some possible retrogression. Hmmm

 

The blocking ridge ends up trying to rebuild itself around Dec 19, just after it appears to be breaking down... I think December is done. Warm and dry. My eye is on January now.

[MossMan]

38 and cloudy here which is warmer than when I went to bed.

Rose a degree here as well. Currently cloudy and 39.

[ShawniganLake]

Frosty and 29F here.

[TT-SEA]

Frosty and 29F here.

 

Phil will say it must be freezing here then... I am higher.   

 

39 with thick clouds here and looks like some precip moving in again.  

[Jesse]

Phil will say it must be freezing here then... I am higher.

 

39 with thick clouds here and looks like some precip moving in again.

Why do you care so much?

[TT-SEA]

Why do you care so much?

 

Phil does not understand our microclimates and then accusing me of lying... its annoying.      I might report more on things I find interesting... but I do not lie about observations here.

[Timmy]

Phil does not understand our microclimates and then accusing me of lying... its annoying. I might report more on things I find interesting... but I do not lie about observations here.

You lied about your lack of freezes thus far with stock images of roses

[TT-SEA]

You lied about your lack of freezes thus far with stock images of roses

 

 

Indeed.

[TT-SEA]

Frosty and 29F here.

 

For those who do not live... this is why its 29 up there and 39 here.   

 

Clear skies over Vancouver Island while there are thick clouds banked up against the Cascades here.   This is a very common set up...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

35 here this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty crazy how bad things have gotten in the models over the next 2-3 weeks. No cold air for 1500 miles. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Most of the country will be torching over the next two weeks. Only the Great Lakes and NE will escape.

[ShawniganLake]

Nice to see some ridging rebuilding at the end of the 12z GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS now keeps us above normal through mid-January.

[HighlandExperience]

Most of the country will be torching over the next two weeks. Only the Great Lakes and NE will escape.

New York Times will post an article about Christmas time snow disappearing.

[Guest El nina]

CFS now keeps us above normal through mid-January.

Alright it's over.

[Jesse]

GFS MOS shows PDX with highs around 50 from Wednesday onward.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

New York Times will post an article about Christmas time snow disappearing.

 

I'm dreaming of a white Christmas.

[Jesse]

According to the 12z GFS, today’s scattered showers will be the last precip for two weeks. I find that hard to believe.

[Timmy]

CFS now keeps us above normal through mid-January.

But Philbert said...

[TT-SEA]

Our amplifying ridge is about to cause a huge crash in the Midwest.   

 

Look at the forecast for Minneapolis... 54 with rain tomorrow and then 19 with snow tomorrow night.    

 

[Front Ranger]

Most of the country will be torching over the next two weeks. Only the Great Lakes and NE will escape.

 

The eastern half of the nation is pretty cold overall through day 10 of the EPS. Hard to say beyond that. 

[Front Ranger]

According to the 12z GFS, today’s scattered showers will be the last precip for two weeks. I find that hard to believe.

 

Would not be unprecedented for December. But nearly.

[Eastvanisle]

I'll share these on here as well, for our US comrades who have also been betrayed by winter. Grab one and use it in good cheer!

[umadbro]

Anyone firing up the BBQ at the bottom of the cliff yet? If not, I'll volunteer.

[TT-SEA]

Google says it will only get down to 32 here once over the next week... not sure I believe this though.

 

[ShawniganLake]

According to the 12z GFS, today’s scattered showers will be the last precip for two weeks. I find that hard to believe.

What was December 2005 like there? We only had a few hundredths of an inch for the first 18 days of the month. Pretty much worse case scenario for winter if we continue on that path.

[TT-SEA]

What was December 2005 like there? We only had a few hundredths of an inch for the first 18 days of the month. Pretty much worse case scenario for winter if we continue on that path.

 

That was a different kind of ridging.   That was very cold and very windy.    And then of course it transitioned to extremely warm and wet right before Christmas.  

[Jesse]

That was a different kind of ridging.   That was very cold and very windy.    And then of course it transitioned to extremely warm and wet right before Christmas.  

 

I don't think it was all that different at face value. Surface details for the upcoming pattern are yet to be seen.

[Jesse]

What was December 2005 like there? We only had a few hundredths of an inch for the first 18 days of the month. Pretty much worse case scenario for winter if we continue on that path.

 

Cold and dry. Lots of chilly east winds and eventually highs in the low-mid 30s before a moderate overrunning event the week before Christmas. Then it warmed up dramatically and we didn't see a whiff of cold air again until mid-February. Near record warm January was sandwiched in between.

[ShawniganLake]

That was a different kind of ridging. That was very cold and very windy. And then of course it transitioned to extremely warm and wet right before Christmas.

It was a little chilly here but not cold. Lots of 42/30 type weather.

[Deweydog]

I don't think it was all that different at face value. Surface details for the upcoming pattern are yet to be seen.

There were subtleties to that setup which were pretty consequential and at this point aren't showing up the models. The biggest one was the fact we kept getting clipped by cool air masses which deepened the east side cold pool, dried the low levels and increased gradients.

[Jesse]

There were subtleties to that setup which were pretty consequential and at this point aren't showing up the models. The biggest one was the fact we kept getting clipped by cool air masses which deepened the east side cold pool, dried the low levels and increased gradients.

 

Sure, but it's still probably the closest and most recent analog. Heights were fairly high then as well for a notably long stretch, even though the ridge axis may have had more a of a propensity to get shoved west at times.

[Jesse]

It will be interesting to see how the lower levels react to a ridge sitting directly on top of us for at least 7-10 days, during essentially the lowest point of insolation for the entire year.

 

I can imagine spots in the Willamette Valley seeing some incredibly persistent fog. But for up here its hard to tell how mixed things may or may not stay.

[Bryant]

Yes. It's in the Winter Predictions thread.

Thank you

[Deweydog]

Sure, but it's still probably the closest and most recent analog. Heights were fairly high then as well for a notably long stretch, even though the ridge axis may have had more a of a propensity to get shoved west at times.

That's a pretty crucial distinction. In 2005, the system on the 13th dropped thicknesses on the east side well into the 520's. It turned things over, provided some clearing and deepened the cold pool. No reason the models couldn't shift toward something similar but right now this setup looks relatively mild aside from the climo norm of drier equals cooler this time of year in the lowlands.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS MOS shows PDX with highs around 50 from Wednesday onward.

 

Definitely makes sense. This is not really a fake cold setup. I would expect valley fog to develop and become entrenched, but probably a warmer inversion with highs in the 40-45 range and lows around 35 in the Willamette Valley.