Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 I feel like what the 18z GFS ensemble shows is almost exactly the progression that Phil has been describing for weeks now. The GFS show that the block builds a little further to west over Christmas week then everything retrogrades once again with finally the PNW getting hit with some real cold around the 28th-30th. It's really been quite the slow process but it really does look like things are getting close! I'm still really quite amazed that I we look to hold onto this blocking pattern for at least another ~4 weeks.Here is the 48 hour trend. 48 hours ago the GFS ensemble had the ridge parked right over us. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Just shy of 50 here this afternoon. That’s about a +7F for the high.That warmup is going to hit hard when it comes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Wow...the Euro weeklies look incredible. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 18z ensembles are improved. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Here is the control run for New Years Eve... The mean is also very cold beginning around the 28th. http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/2017121100/noram/eps_m_z500a_c_noram_43.png 6 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 And the mean on the same date... http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/2017121100/noram/eps_m_z500a_noram_43.png 3 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 Weeks 1-6 on the latest EPS weeklies. Huge flip right around New Years. Solid retrogression signal there, though hopefully we can break down the stratospheric PV and avoid a +EPO. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 11, 2017 Report Share Posted December 11, 2017 I see jesse is on his morals police kick again.Looks like your shift just started. Keep an eye on that Jesse guy while I’m gone. I got a tip that there may be proof of his moral deviancy in his underwear drawer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 Been about 11 months. Arctic or modified arctic air is a bit different... How's this: when was the last Dec or Jan period that featured temps this warm (highs mainly in the 40s to 50s), with sunshine, for this long? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 What "phases" are those?I think of phases 2-3 as IO, and 4-7 as Indo-Pacific, but it’s kinda debatable. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 I feel like what the 18z GFS ensemble shows is almost exactly the progression that Phil has been describing for weeks now. The GFS show that the block builds a little further to west over Christmas week then everything retrogrades once again with finally the PNW getting hit with some real cold around the 28th-30th. It's been quite the slow process but it really does look like things are getting close! I'm still really quite amazed that we look to hold onto this blocking pattern for at least another ~4 weeks. To be fair, he's hardly been the only one saying for weeks that the action probably won't start until late December at the earliest. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 Arctic or modified arctic air is a bit different... How's this: when was the last Dec or Jan period that featured temps this warm (highs mainly in the 40s to 50s), with sunshine, for this long?December 2005. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 My. Agung is starting to get interesting. I think it’s now erupted 17 times over the last week, with the eruptions progressively intensifying along with a continued “swelling” of the south face of the mountain. This is (presumably) similar to what happened during the 1843 eruption which started with smallish eruptions and continued for about a month until it produced a VEI5 blast. The 1963 eruption also started small, but it was also a bit different in that before it became explosive (VEI4) it produced a lava flow that traveled 7km down the face of the mountain over a 4 week period, then went explosive in the following months. That's an ominous sign that gases are building up inside. They could all be released in one large eruption. Sounds like this volcano is just warming up for its next act. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 December 2005.Worst. Analog. Ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl Bonner Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 Wow...the Euro weeklies look incredible. Care to give us a peek? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 It just keeps getting pushed back a day at a time... Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 To be fair, he's hardly been the only one saying for weeks that the action probably won't start until late December. This is true but Phil has held steadfast on the pattern progression (ridge to discontinuous retrogression) for quite sometime now. Who else has said a blocking pattern would hold itself for possibly 6+ weeks in the PNW? 3 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 It just keeps getting pushed back a day at a time...No, it doesn’t. Unless you were expecting a blast by Christmas (which was always fairly unlikely in my opinion), I think the progression is going as anticipated. At least for the time being. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 This is true but Phil has held steadfast on the pattern progression (ridge to discontinuous retrogression) for quite sometime now. Who else has said a blocking pattern would hold itself for possibly 6+ weeks in the PNW?Thank you (knocks on wood]. I’m trying very hard to get this one right, haha. Hopefully Mother Nature doesn’t fumble it at the end zone this time. The pieces are all present and in place. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 Thank you (knocks on wood]. I’m trying very hard to get this one right, haha. Hopefully Mother Nature doesn’t fumble it in the end zone this time. The pieces are all present and in place.Fumbling in the end zone is a touchdown. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 Fumbling in the end zone is a touchdown.I hate you. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 December 2005. I do remember that...just wasn't sure if there'd been a similar period since then. Basically, it doesn't happen all that often. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 I hate you.Maybe we'll just screw up spiking the ball; blow out our shoulder or have the ball shoot off to the side and scratch the cornea of a small child. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 Some big time ensemble spread there. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 This is true but Phil has held steadfast on the pattern progression (ridge to discontinuous retrogression) for quite sometime now. Who else has said a blocking pattern would hold itself for possibly 6+ weeks in the PNW? Many of the primary analogs discussed had a lengthy +PNA stretch in the late Nov - mid December period. What defines a "blocking pattern" in the PNW? A ridge over or near the PNW? And if the pattern is discontinuous retrogression, wouldn't that allow for the blocking to breakdown at times? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl Bonner Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 18z GEFS for The Dalles shows at least four members dipping to -15C, and several more flirt with -10 at one point or another (mean goes as low as -6 just before Christmas!) http://weathertogether.net/models/GFS_ENSEMBLE_1.00_DEGREE/20171211/18z/KDLS_850hPaTemp.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 Looks like your shift just started. Keep an eye on that Jesse guy while I’m gone. I got a tip that there may be proof of his moral deviancy in his underwear drawer.Good point or something like that. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 Many of the primary analogs discussed had a lengthy +PNA stretch in the late Nov - mid December period. What defines a "blocking pattern" in the PNW? A ridge over or near the PNW? And if the pattern is discontinuous retrogression, wouldn't that allow for the blocking to breakdown at times?You've done a super job too! I've sent around a hallmark card for everyone to sign and express their appreciation of your stable of analogs. Keep checking the mail! 5 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 And for future reference: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.dictionary.com/browse/discontinuous&ved=0ahUKEwiv4NexnIPYAhVF22MKHVgpBsYQFghOMAI&usg=AOvVaw12sV-bh9sGNMNXndRHaxjE 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 18z GFS ensemble is actually pretty good FWIW. Block is a tad too close to the coast but still quite chilly with a strong Northerly flow. Very amplified pattern in the long term. Not too bad and if it tilts ---> We'll be good. Southeast US ridge is pretty nice too. Ensembles for Yakima shows a chilly air mass and possibly modified arctic air which will likely be pulled westward via Gorge into PDX. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 You've done a super job too! I've sent around a hallmark card for everyone to sign and express their appreciation of your stable of analogs. Keep checking the mail! Thanks, buddy! Perception is a funny thing... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 Not too bad and if it tilts ---> We'll be good. Southeast US ridge is pretty nice too. Ensembles for Yakima shows a chilly air mass and possibly modified arctic air which will likely be pulled westward via Gorge into PDX. Yeah, that's another big change in the ensembles over the past day or so. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 That warmup is going to hit hard when it comes.I’m ready. Just put a new set of winter tires on my truck today. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 Many of the primary analogs discussed had a lengthy +PNA stretch in the late Nov - mid December period. What defines a "blocking pattern" in the PNW? A ridge over or near the PNW? And if the pattern is discontinuous retrogression, wouldn't that allow for the blocking to breakdown at times? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 Here is the 48 hour trend. 48 hours ago the GFS ensemble had the ridge parked right over us. trend.png Definitely some positive progress there. We need it to tilt toward the Yukon a bit more. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 Who's ready for improved/colder 00z runs tonight? Next up..........*00z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutes (7:24 PM)00z CMC(Canadian) in 3 hours 9 minutes (8:09 PM)00z ECMWF in 4 hours 45 minutes (9:45 PM)Think Cold and SNOW!!!! ❄❄☃❄❄ 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 I do remember that...just wasn't sure if there'd been a similar period since then. Basically, it doesn't happen all that often. December 2011 would also fit the bill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 Here is the control run for New Years Eve... The mean is also very cold beginning around the 28th. http://models.weatherbell.com/eps/2017121100/noram/eps_m_z500a_c_noram_43.pngSame hour from last night's 0Z CFS (don't want to show the 12Z) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 We're in this one together, my friend. In sync on the general pattern progression, and have been since some point in November (we both know that isn't always the case). If this winter doesn't deliver by January, we both go down with the ship. And nothing past mid December has verified yet. I'm just trying to figure out what Kayla meant by "a blocking pattern holding itself for 6+ weeks in the PNW"? Persistent +PNA transitioning to -PNA sometime after Christmas...discontinuous retrogression of west coast ridge....many times the things discussed on here come down to different terminology, ultimately leading to similar outcomes. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2017 Report Share Posted December 12, 2017 December 2011 would also fit the bill. I believe that ridge was significantly cooler at the surface in many areas. SEA, for example, didn't see a high above 43 from the 1-14th. This month, almost every high at SEA has been warmer than that, with a couple in the 50s. Same holds true for PDX. In Dec 2011, no highs above 44 from the 1-15th. This month has seen 4 highs in the 50s and every day until today has been 45+. Also looks like there was more low clouds/fog in 2011. So while there are some similarities, I'd say that ridge was easily more inversiony at the surface than this one. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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