December Weather In the PNW

[Front Ranger]

A gradual westward shift in the ridge axis over a period of several weeks. In other words, a “long period discontinuous retrogression”.

 

I was really hoping it would have shifted westward enough by now that my location would have stopped torching. No such luck. 

[Jesse]

I was really hoping it would have shifted westward enough by now that my location would have stopped torching. No such luck.

Andrew’s place looked pretty frosty in that pic.

[TT-SEA]

No one knows how to hammer a point into oblivion quite like Tim.

 

Today's readings offer evidence contrary to his assessment of yesterday.   That is all. 

[Front Ranger]

Today's readings offer evidence contrary to his assessment of yesterday.   That is all. 

 

Perfectly reasonable to continue to provide hourly evidence.

[Phil]

I was really hoping it would have shifted westward enough by now that my location would have stopped torching. No such luck.

I have no winter-related empathy for you. Sorry.

[Deweydog]

Pretty weird how you are striving to turn friendly banter into something deeply offensive. Says more about you than me I guess.

I can feel the change already!!!

[Front Ranger]

Andrew’s place looked pretty frosty in that pic.

 

My location, not "my location". 

 

From now on, Andrew's my location will get this special font. 

[Deweydog]

No one knows how to hammer a point into oblivion quite like Tim.

Quite Trumpish, actually.

[TT-SEA]

Perfectly reasonable to continue to provide hourly evidence.

 

On another note... Mesonet stations around Covington at 52 right now.  Fogversion fail?   

[Jesse]

I can feel the change already!!!

You are trying to create a self fulfilling prophecy.

[Deweydog]

You are trying to create a self fulfilling prophecy.

Deep.

[Front Ranger]

I have no winter-related empathy for you. Sorry.

 

Bad karma!

[BLI snowman]

On another note... Mesonet stations around Covington at 52 right now.  Fogversion fail?   

 

 

Not quite inversion season yet. Sun gets weak enough around the 20th.

[Front Ranger]

18z seems to like the offshore cutoff idea as well.

[Deweydog]

Not quite inversion season yet. Sun gets weak enough around the 20th.

Forum road trip to Eugene for totality???

[TT-SEA]

Not quite inversion season yet. Sun gets weak enough around the 20th.

 

Ahhhh good to know... I have been told the screws were getting put on us since last week and it would be getting colder and foggier every day.  The models did not show that but they are always wrong. 

[BLI snowman]

That's a sexy cut-off low. Hopefully graces CA with some rain at least.

[Deweydog]

Ahhhh good to know... I have been told the screws were getting put on us since last week and it would be getting colder and foggier every day. The models did not show that but they are always wrong.

Hey, I remember Jim saying that!

[Jesse]

Deep.

Accurate.

[TT-SEA]

Hey, I remember Jim saying that!

 

I forgot who said it... but its been a common theme on here.   No idea how today is not in the low 30s with freezing fog through the afternoon.    Screwed down tight! 

[Tyler Mode]

Beautiful morning at Ridgefield Wildlife Refuge.

 

https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-RWXzLjd/0/3197b459/L/i-RWXzLjd-L.jpg

 

https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-xWzjcc7/0/5512f7e0/L/i-xWzjcc7-L.jpg

 

https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-bzbFSb3/0/d8f2a9ec/L/i-bzbFSb3-L.jpg

 

 

[Deweydog]

I forgot who said it... but its been a common theme on here. No idea how today is not in the low 30s with freezing fog through the afternoon. Screwed down tight!

Seems like that guy might have a cold bias. Has anyone looked into that?

[TT-SEA]

I will say that even I am surprised how sunny and relatively warm this extended period of ridging has been.    The models have been really been accurate overall and they usually do struggle with winter ridges and surface details.

 

SEA has been one of the foggier spots and even there its been about normal over the last week.   

 

Every day has been sunny for most of the region.

 

#wearereallydueforcloudsandrain

[Jesse]

Beautiful morning at Ridgefield Wildlife Refuge.

 

https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-RWXzLjd/0/3197b459/L/i-RWXzLjd-L.jpg

 

https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-xWzjcc7/0/5512f7e0/L/i-xWzjcc7-L.jpg

 

https://photos.smugmug.com/photos/i-bzbFSb3/0/d8f2a9ec/L/i-bzbFSb3-L.jpg

All of the photos are upside down.

[Jesse]

I forgot who said it... but its been a common theme on here. No idea how today is not in the low 30s with freezing fog through the afternoon. Screwed down tight!

Some places have been pretty cold, foggy and inversiony, others haven’t. Pretty standard early winter ridge. I think you are just about the only one taking it to strange places.

[Deweydog]

Another gorgeous Xmas weekend...

[stuffradio]

ECMWF MJO (whether it's a pseudo MJO wave or not) is forecasting we're going into a full blown phase 8, and it will reach borderline phase 1 by Dec 25, but then it does into the CoD before reaching phase 1. Phase 1 and 2 would have put us back in the cold.

[Front Ranger]

All of the photos are upside down.

 

That seems to be his style lately.

[Front Ranger]

Some places have been pretty cold, foggy and inversiony, others haven’t. Pretty standard early winter ridge. I think you are just about the only one taking it to strange places.

 

He kind of has a point. When was the last Dec or Jan ridge that featured this much sunshine across the western lowlands?

[TT-SEA]

He kind of has a point. When was the last Dec or Jan ridge that featured this much sunshine across the western lowlands?

 

Exactly... there has been a very surprising lack of fog and low clouds overall.   Particularly given the strength of this ridge and the time of year.

[ShawniganLake]

Just shy of 50 here this afternoon. That’s about a +7F for the high.

[umadbro]

I see jesse is on his morals police kick again.

[Winterdog]

Exactly... there has been a very surprising lack of fog and low clouds overall.   Particularly given the strength of this ridge and the time of year.

Do you think the next iteration may have a better chance for fog and low clouds? It looks like it may be a bit cooler heading into it.

[Phil]

My. Agung is starting to get interesting. I think it’s now erupted 17 times over the last week, with the eruptions progressively intensifying along with a continued “swelling” of the south face of the mountain.

 

This is (presumably) similar to what happened during the 1843 eruption which started with smallish eruptions and continued for about a month until it produced a VEI5 blast.

 

The 1963 eruption also started small, but it was also a bit different in that before it became explosive (VEI4) it produced a lava flow that traveled 7km down the face of the mountain over a 4 week period, then went explosive in the following months.

[Kayla]

18z GFS ensemble is actually pretty good FWIW. Block is a tad too close to the coast but still quite chilly with a strong Northerly flow. Very amplified pattern in the long term. 

 

[Phil]

ECMWF MJO (whether it's a pseudo MJO wave or not) is forecasting we're going into a full blown phase 8, and it will reach borderline phase 1 by Dec 25, but then it does into the CoD before reaching phase 1. Phase 1 and 2 would have put us back in the cold.

There is some MJO component there, but it’s borderline and is being driven by the extratropics (Rossby wave breaking). This WHEM/phase 8 forcing should propagate into the IO towards Christmas and into the Indo-Pacific domain towards New Years, IMO.

[Deweydog]

Exactly... there has been a very surprising lack of fog and low clouds overall. Particularly given the strength of this ridge and the time of year.

I think it all came down to the start. There was a perfect balance of subsidence and deep offshore flow to start which essentially eliminated the remaining low level cool air from the departed trough last Wednesday. Since then it's just been about the balance of the long nights and the dry air seepage which keeps slightly reenergizing the initial dry, warm advection.

[Kayla]

I feel like what the 18z GFS ensemble shows is almost exactly the progression that Phil has been describing for weeks now. The GFS show that the block builds a little further to west over Christmas week then everything retrogrades once again with finally the PNW getting hit with some real cold around the 28th-30th.

 

It's been quite the slow process but it really does look like things are getting close! I'm still really quite amazed that we look to hold onto this blocking pattern for at least another ~4 weeks.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

There is some MJO component there, but it’s borderline and is being driven by the extratropics (Rossby wave breaking). This WHEM/phase 8 forcing should propagate into the IO towards Christmas and into the Indo-Pacific domain towards New Years, IMO.

What "phases" are those?  

[Jesse]

He kind of has a point. When was the last Dec or Jan ridge that featured this much sunshine across the western lowlands?

Been about 11 months.