The Winter Solstice Storm

[dubuque473]

I'd gladly take that 3-3.5"

[Grizzcoat]

System appears to really lay a turd on 6Z GFS. At least areas in C.IA which only showed little or nothing continue to show it. Areas way E may do OK. But a bust for many in Central MN.  

[bud2380]

Well that was one confusing and very different run by the euro. I now am not at all confident in what will happen with this storm other than it looks weaker and further SE.

[Tom]

What looks like is happening, and has been a trend this season, the southern energy becomes the dominant player.  After I saw yesterdays 12z EPS run, and saw the spread at HR 84, I had a feeling the model was having trouble what to do with the southern energy.  Last nights 00z EPS basically confirms the seasonal trend that the southern energy becomes the main player and it looks like we will have a 2-part system.  The first will be a lead wave, the second a "Texarkana cutter".  Actually, the 00z EPS members dig the southern energy all the way down into S TX.

 

Look at the ensemble focusing in on the southern energy....

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121900/noram/eps_mslp_anom_noram_90.png

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121900/noram/eps_mslp_anom_noram_102.png

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121900/noram/eps_mslp_anom_noram_108.png

 

 

00z EPS snow mean has resulted in some changes...the 00z Euro control is also developing a stronger southern wave and cutting up the S MW/OV.

[Tom]

D**n, I'd say there are 80% of the 51 members that show a significant secondary storm cutting up towards the GL's.  I think we are in for some last min surprises.  Might have to re-name this storm thread "The Winter Solstice Storm - 2 Parts".

[Snowshoe]

It's never good to be in the bullseye from the start. I should know better. Holding out hope this is just a bump in the road.

[Tom]

00z GEFS members "seeing" the secondary low...

[Tom]

Izzi noting the southerly shift...I did mention how complex this system is going to be...so I'm not surprised that this is proving to be an interesting development with the secondary piece.  The energy from this system will be coming on shore later tonight near B.C/WA and until it tracks down towards the SW, expect to see some back and forth.  The mountainous feedback issues may be in play over the next 2 days.

 

 

 

 

First up, a major pattern change will take place this week with
initially a strong trough digging into the Four Corners region and
closing off a deep tropospheric circulation Wednesday night. Lee
side cyclone will develop Wed into Wed night before it tracks
east-northeast toward the MS Valley region. Guidance has been
struggling with the track and intensity of this system for days
now waffling between stronger/northerly track and back to a weaker
more southerly track with the latest batch of guidance. Given the
complexity of all the pieces coming into play with the significant
pattern change, confidence in the latest trends being the final
answer isn`t particularly high.

[jaster220]

0z euro

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

 

Still manages to give Chicago and S Lakes nada for next 10 days-love it..

 

d**n, I'd say there are 80% of the 51 members that show a significant secondary storm cutting up towards the GL's.  I think we are in for some last min surprises.  Might have to re-name this storm thread "The Winter Solstice Storm - 2 Parts".

 

If true, when does this potential start materializing on actual snow maps? Cuz I'm not seeing anything posted that shows a favorable potential for yby or mby. Did I miss something here? Euro looks like it has practically nothing around SMI, even tho the system slows, tracks south (part 1), and is weaker. Still gives all the snow to NMI. Are you saying you feel the snow maps will eventually fill-in across our area via part 2 shortwave? I'm a bit confused by your post tbh

[gosaints]

Energy should be on shore tonight...

[Tom]

Still manages to give Chicago and S Lakes nada for next 10 days-love it..

 

 

If true, when does this potential start materializing on actual snow maps? Cuz I'm not seeing anything posted that shows a favorable potential for yby or mby. Did I miss something here? Euro looks like it has practically nothing around SMI, even tho the system slows, tracks south (part 1), and is weaker. Still gives all the snow to NMI. Are you saying you feel the snow maps will eventually fill-in across our area via part 2 shortwave? I'm a bit confused by your post tbh

I'm anticipating a stronger southern wave showing up on the Operational models today.  That's just my gut feeling.  Anyone in the MW/GL's region is in play if this indeed does intensifying and wrap up.  We are still over 84 hours from this southern energy developing, so, we may need to be patient on how the models handle it over the next couple days.

[jaster220]

I'm anticipating a stronger southern wave showing up on the Operational models today.  That's just my gut feeling.  Anyone in the MW/GL's region is in play if this indeed does intensifying and wrap up.  We are still over 84 hours from this southern energy developing, so, we may need to be patient on how the models handle it over the next couple days.

 

k, gotcha now..

 

From the SMI board..

 

 

 

 

The air on tonight's runs is exceptionally cold. GEM is the most cold. Historically cold actually. I did a lot of looking through upper air maps and while the models will struggle at the surface till probably 2-3 days out. All models are in great agreement at 300mb. I would be shocked if a major winter storm didn't come from this set up. We also have favorable teles. jan 5th, 2014 is a very good analog and so is the pattern that followed. It could be we are jump starting that pattern a couple weeks early as opposed to 13/14.

[St Paul Storm]

I’ve moved on from caring about the snow. My call is 1”-1.5” here although we may get shut out completely. I want to see how cold we get afterwards. Temps on Christmas morning look like they could be -10 to -18F. Likely the coldest Christmas since 1996.

[jaster220]

Shocker from my WFO..

 

"I am becoming increasingly concerned that as the frontal boundary
slows down due to the ridge to our east that a stronger southern
stream system will emerge from the southern Plains and move
northeast Friday night. This system could bring accumulating snow to
much of our area.

The 00Z ECMWF suggests this scenario too and if trends continue I
would not be surprised at all if a decent and impactful snow event
occurs across much of our area Friday night. So we will continue to
monitor this system and guidance trends closely."

-GRR NWS

[Tom]

Very interesting correlation when you take a look back on Dec 16th how the EAR could provide a clue as to how this system may develop.  Notice the 2 pieces of energy just offshore of Japan.  1) The piece east of Japan  2) The energy just SE of the Sea of Okhotsk....then see how they phase later....is this what we will see???

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

Shocker from my WFO..

 

"I am becoming increasingly concerned that as the frontal boundary

slows down due to the ridge to our east that a stronger southern

stream system will emerge from the southern Plains and move

northeast Friday night. This system could bring accumulating snow to

much of our area.

The 00Z ECMWF suggests this scenario too and if trends continue I

would not be surprised at all if a decent and impactful snow event

occurs across much of our area Friday night. So we will continue to

monitor this system and guidance trends closely."

-GRR NWS

Something to pay close attn to as models get a better idea on what will happen. GOM is open for business.

[St Paul Storm]

Shocker from my WFO..

 

"I am becoming increasingly concerned that as the frontal boundary

slows down due to the ridge to our east that a stronger southern

stream system will emerge from the southern Plains and move

northeast Friday night. This system could bring accumulating snow to

much of our area.

The 00Z ECMWF suggests this scenario too and if trends continue I

would not be surprised at all if a decent and impactful snow event

occurs across much of our area Friday night. So we will continue to

monitor this system and guidance trends closely."

-GRR NWS

Hopefully someone scores something out of this after all!

[jaster220]

Something to pay close attn to as models get a better idea on what will happen. GOM is open for business.

 

Last image almost looks like a dbl-barreled SLP. Am I seeing that right? Did it eventually congeal?

[Niko]

Last image almost looks like a dbl-barreled SLP. Am I seeing that right? Did it eventually congeal?

I think you are right, perhaps.

 

FWIW: I no longer have rain in my forecast for FRI.

[Tom]

Long range 12z NAM focusing in on the southern energy so it def seems like there is something brewing.

[Madtown]

should I be praying for a nw trend now....im all confused. What a mess. Mkx still calling for rain snow mix through most of the event here.

[Tony]

Still manages to give Chicago and S Lakes nada for next 10 days-love it..

 

 

If true, when does this potential start materializing on actual snow maps? Cuz I'm not seeing anything posted that shows a favorable potential for yby or mby. Did I miss something here? Euro looks like it has practically nothing around SMI, even tho the system slows, tracks south (part 1), and is weaker. Still gives all the snow to NMI. Are you saying you feel the snow maps will eventually fill-in across our area via part 2 shortwave? I'm a bit confused by your post tbh

I have to agree that the potential for any type of snows are very slim indeed. I see nothing on the surface maps to say otherwise.

[james1976]

12z NAM a no show for IA

[jaster220]

Long range 12z NAM focusing in on the southern energy so it def seems like there is something brewing.

 

Yeah, this looks to be a major disappointment brewing for the western-most posters in here. Looking more and more likely that the models were way too quick to develop the lead sw and run it out across the northern route. Most times that happens, and when it does it usually means the 2nd sw weakens and slides south. That's the scenario it seems 9 out of 10 times in my life. This is that unique year tho, where the "typical scenario" is out of vogue 

[Niko]

Yeah, this looks to be a major disappointment brewing for the western-most posters in here. Looking more and more likely that the models were way too quick to develop the lead sw and run it out across the northern route. Most times that happens, and when it does it usually means the 2nd sw weakens and slides south. That's the scenario it seems 9 out of 10 times in my life. This is that unique year tho, where the "typical scenario" is out of vogue 

A lot of irate posters, unfortunately. Like you said Jaster, models were to quick to forecast that northern track.

[Tom]

This year, ain’t last year...this years pattern has had favorable storm tracks for the MW/GL’s region. Not to say, those out in the Plains won’t have any snow out of this system.

[jaster220]

Long range 12z NAM focusing in on the southern energy so it def seems like there is something brewing.

 

GEM flashing an almost exact SLP map just before the Jan 11-12 1918 Bliz hit this region. Note the SLP over Huron. The SE ridge (mentioned in that GRR quote) forced that Gulf SLP to shoot NE to Huron in about 24 hr period. It also deepened rapidly to under 972 mb's. Ofc, I'm not saying this happens, but the similarities and cold air expected are striking, especially with 1917-18 analog in play..

 

 

Jan 11, 1918

 

 

24hrs later..

 

[Tom]

GEM flashing an almost exact SLP map just before the Jan 11-12 1918 Bliz hit this region. Note the SLP over Huron. The SE ridge (mentioned in that GRR quote) forced that Gulf SLP to shoot NE to Huron in about 24 hr period. It also deepened rapidly to under 972 mb's. Ofc, I'm not saying this happens, but the similarities and cold air expected are striking, especially with 1917-18 analog in play..

 

20171219 0z 108hr GEM MSLP.png

 

Jan 11, 1918

 

19180111 GLs Bomb.PNG

 

24hrs later..

 

19180112 GLs Bomb.PNG

Very cool find bud! Gotta Tell ya, many EPS members are showing a strong SLP coming out of the south. Would like to see more runs before getting excited over here.

[Niko]

GEM flashing an almost exact SLP map just before the Jan 11-12 1918 Bliz hit this region. Note the SLP over Huron. The SE ridge (mentioned in that GRR quote) forced that Gulf SLP to shoot NE to Huron in about 24 hr period. It also deepened rapidly to under 972 mb's. Ofc, I'm not saying this happens, but the similarities and cold air expected are striking, especially with 1917-18 analog in play..

 

20171219 0z 108hr GEM MSLP.png

 

Jan 11, 1918

 

19180111 GLs Bomb.PNG

 

24hrs later..

 

19180112 GLs Bomb.PNG

Great find Jaster.

[NEJeremy]

It's been fun to see how we've gone from this past weekend the NWS saying accumulating snow with significant accumulations possible and a 80% snow forecast for Thursday, to now just some rain/freezing rain, and a bit of snow with an inch of snow possible way up in northeast Nebraska.

Then comes the extreme cold with a thin layer of crust on the grass, part of the month.

So much winning

[gosaints]

should I be praying for a nw trend now....im all confused. What a mess. Mkx still calling for rain snow mix through most of the event here.

Lead wave would have to continue to disapear...

[Tom]

12z GFS slowing and digging the southern energy...looks colder as well...

[St Paul Storm]

The northern piece is really fading into nothing on the 12z GFS. Wow.

[St Paul Storm]

Yep and the confluence left behind probably squashes the 2nd piece as well.

Looks like something about to really pop after hour 78. Tom’s reeling one in.

[bud2380]

Holy $hit, the GFS totally changed and sure enough is showing that southern wave developing.  

[Tom]

Yep and the confluence left behind probably squashes the 2nd piece as well.

Nope, GFS trending towards a large second wave...

[bud2380]

For my sake, I really hope it shifts a touch further west,  I'm right on the western fringe of moderate accums it looks like.  

[Tom]

A phased monster on the GFS...Tis the season

[Money]

Gfs bomb

[bud2380]

Good call Tom. You've been saying it for days.  DVN aslo mentioned it in their AFD on Sunday I believe.  The GEM showed a brief flash of this for a couple runs a couple days ago, but went away yesterday.  Now the GFS is jumping on board.  Definitely interested to see what the other global models do today.  Last nights Euro was a mess, so maybe it was just starting to latch on to the idea and we'll see a better run from it today.