The Winter Solstice Storm

[Grizzcoat]

Not really anything interesting to post for ORD, If the Euro verifies the Queen Bay / Vike game Sat night could be interesting 

[Grizzcoat]

Personally don't trust off hour non  upper air model runs (6Z and 18Z)-- but the 6Z GFS is again a step SE. Good news for IA if it's a trend.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Holy crap! Now this is more like it for eastern Nebraska folks! This is more then  step southeast, its a huge step lol.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/2017121806/US/GFSUS_prec_ptype_087.png

[Money]

Yup stronger high and more colder again

[Money]

Ensembles are actually clustered pretty far south of Chicago also

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2017121806&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=96

[Tom]

06z GEFS show the SE tick and more snow across NE/IA members...might even squeeze something over here if this trend continues...

[Tom]

00z EPS has now split this system into 2 pieces sending the first one out ahead towards KC/N MO/ W IL and then I"m starting to see more members coming out of the deep south near the Texarkana region.  Ultimately, we see an intensifying storm somewhere in the eastern GL's.  This is usually the period we start seeing some back and forth among the models.

 

IMO, I think we see some changes for the 12z runs.  Based on what I saw from the ensembles there seems to be some confusion on what to do with the southern piece.  Today, the storm is riding down the British Columbia coast and by Tue afternoon it hits the PAC NW coast.  Should be getting better data today.

 

FWIW, 00z Euro control weaker and a touch south also compared to 12z yesterday.

[St Paul Storm]

Huh, I went to bed after the 0z GFS and GEM. I guess I missed a lot. Good luck to those south and east. Bring home a big dog!

[SE Wisconsin]

MKX AFD: 

"continue to show surface/850 tracks and baroclinic zone placement
that favors the better snow potential across the northern and
northwest cwa. The consensus of the GFS and ECMWF surface tracks
brings it either into extreme southeast WI or extreme northeast
IL. The 850 low tracks are across central WI with the ECMWF quite
broad with this feature....  So still potential for a potpourri
across our forecast area with the southeast looking more rain than
snow at this time"

 

Trend for them has definitively been NW.  It's been my experience that cutters this time of year rarely correct south this far out.  Trend always seems to be north.

[Tom]

Huh, I went to bed after the 0z GFS and GEM. I guess I missed a lot. Good luck to those south and east. Bring home a big dog!

Still a lot of time to iron things out buddy. I think your going to get 4"+ from this one.

[Tom]

06z GFS...

[james1976]

12" jack in NE IA.....haha interesting.

[james1976]

Almost looks like recent CMC runs

[Tom]

Just took a peak at all the individual 51 EPS members and there are more wound up solutions heading up from the south towards the GL's.  Some surprising big hits also in the mix.  I remember seeing a similar system as this one back in the middle of Nov (17th-18th to be exact) that had 2 pieces of energy.  Models initially struggled on what to do with the southern energy and then resulted into a stronger southern piece that eventually rapidly deepened heading towards the Lower Lakes/OV.  I think this is certainly a plausible idea going forward.  Should be another interesting day watching the new data come in.  

[james1976]

DMX with advisory snows on the table.

[Niko]

Models will have a better handling, hopefully, by tomorrow.

[Niko]

Huh, I went to bed after the 0z GFS and GEM. I guess I missed a lot. Good luck to those south and east. Bring home a big dog!

I hope you score big buddy!

[jaster220]

Just took a peak at all the individual 51 EPS members and there are more wound up solutions heading up from the south towards the GL's.  Some surprising big hits also in the mix.  I remember seeing a similar system as this one back in the middle of Nov (17th-18th to be exact) that had 2 pieces of energy.  Models initially struggled on what to do with the southern energy and then resulted into a stronger southern piece that eventually rapidly deepened heading towards the Lower Lakes/OV.  I think this is certainly a plausible idea going forward.  Should be another interesting day watching the new data come in.  

 

Can't call it boring! Would be nice turn of events for you and I, since this first SLP looks like a no-go for our back yards! I've at least scored a nice period of white, while you're still waiting for the real-deal white gold. Hoping you get a nice gift for Christmas (and NY's while we're at it) 

[jaster220]

I hope you score big buddy!

 

I 2nd Niko's holiday wish for yby! Certainly looks great for NWI recreational areas (not to mention NMI/UP) to get set-up nicely going into the big holiday sledding season! Those peeps gotta be geeked - wish I was joining 'em tbh

[Niko]

I 2nd Niko's holiday wish for yby! Certainly looks great for NWI recreational areas (not to mention NMI/UP) to get set-up nicely going into the big holiday sledding season! Those peeps gotta be geeked - wish I was joining 'em tbh

We have to watch and see how much more south this thing goes. Latest trends are pushing it further southward. My forecast is calling for rain changing to snow Friday night and lingering into Sat morning. Tough forecast, indeed. When the models have a better idea w the second piece down south, then, they should come to a better conclusion w this complex system.

 

TBH...I hope the ski-areas up north score good w this system and other peeps on here who haven't seen a flake yet.

[gosaints]

No matter the track, would be nice to see the EURO moisten up over the next couple days.  Reverse the trend of the last couple years

[St Paul Storm]

Still a lot of time to iron things out buddy. I think your going to get 4"+ from this one.

Yeah we’ll see how it goes. Still many changes coming I’m sure. The Euro’s lack of a decent phaser gives me pause. But it wouldn’t be a potential storm without some model drama.

[St Paul Storm]

12z NAM looks nice. Ha! Hope I don’t have to start rooting for that piece of junk.

[gosaints]

Tis the season for the 84 hour NAM.. North of other models.

[hlcater]

Tis the season for the 84 hour NAM.. North of other models.

You'd think they would've fixed that bias by now, has been going on for years.

[gosaints]

You'd think they would've fixed that bias by now, has been going on for years.

I get why it does a bad job as it is a short term model attempting to model things occuring a thousand miles away.   Plenty of instances of it being wrong in the other direction as well.

[Money]

Gfs coming in colder again

[Tom]

Gfs coming in colder again

Digging a bit better in KS thru HR 72...

[james1976]

Just hope it doesnt cut too hard now....

[jaster220]

12z NAM looks nice. Ha! Hope I don’t have to start rooting for that piece of junk.

 

Tis the season for the 84 hour NAM.. North of other models.

 

When the NAM lays an egg at h18, you get to start rooting for the HRRR like I was late Friday, lol ( didn't do any good, jack-zone still ended up 40 miles north)

[Tom]

Woah, 12z GFS seems to be onto a SE shift...

[Tom]

GFS weakens as it heads towards the Lower Lakes, but lays down the snows farther south...

[Tom]

12z GGEM showing a major cutter...

 

 

[bud2380]

GFS really weakens a lot.  The SLP even tracks near STL but the pressure drops to about 1008 and it's just weak sauce by then.  The crazy Canadian is sticking to it's guns about the secondary SLP forming and strengthening.  That would be sweet, but I don't see that happening.  

[bud2380]

GEM

 

[Tom]

12z GGEM bombs out in the GL's...this is what I have been looking into regarding the increase of 00z EPS members...

 

[james1976]

SE trend is obvious. Id take a split between those 2. Wonder if Euro stays weak.

[St Paul Storm]

Ugly. Towel in hand. Haha! IA and WI peeps gonna get rocked.

[Stormgeek]

*Looks at his towel* 

[NEJeremy]

Disappointing how the precip frames on the GFS can look so much better than the actual total amounts of snow that the snowfall maps show. The 12Z GFS looked really good for Omaha, and then it only shows 1.2" for the total.