The Winter Solstice Storm

[Tom]

A takeaway from the GFS run today, you can see it is trying to phase the southern stream of energy over the OV...

 

 

[Tom]

@ Jaster, boy, this sure looks like the evolution of the late Oct GL's bomb, doesn't it???  Last minute trends bring me back to those days of tracking the southern energy phasing with the northern piece.  It's not entirely the same, but certainly brings flashbacks.

[james1976]

A takeaway from the GFS run today, you can see it is trying to phase the southern stream of energy over the OV...

Wouldn't that lean more toward a GEM solution?

[Money]

Interesting runs so far

[Tom]

Wouldn't that lean more toward a GEM solution?

Definitely, and this season, I have seen several storm systems in the medium range shift more towards focusing in on the southern energy rather than the northern piece.  For instance, the bigger systems that I recall were the Oct 23rd/24th GL's bombs/Nov 17th-18th lower lakes storm.

[james1976]

So GFS weakens toward Lakes while GEM bombs out. Model madness

[Jaycee]

I can say with confidence that this actually doesn't look bad for us. Models always do this, especially the GFS. watch this thing get wound up once on land, and have a nice defo band over us with a 3-5" band and isolated 6-7", while Iowa, Minnesota, and areas east get WSW's. Just my two cents!

[bud2380]

It's times like this where we should just ride the Euro.  It's usually more consistent within 120 hours.  

[Tom]

So GFS weakens toward Lakes while GEM bombs out. Model madness

Both show the lead wave weakening but the GGEM phases the southern energy a lot better and the GFS bias is in play here.  Now, I'd like to see the Euro showing a phased system instead of relying on the GGEM for guidance.

[Tom]

I can say with confidence that this actually doesn't look bad for us. Models always do this, especially the GFS. watch this thing get wound up once on land, and have a nice defo band over us with a 3-5" band and isolated 6-7", while Iowa, Minnesota, and areas east get WSW's. Just my two cents!

I can agree with that assumption.  Trends this season with systems as such that dig have been wetter as we got closer in time.  There's only been a couple that trended weaker and the most recent one was a clipper.  So I'd roll with the idea of Juice on this one.  

[hlcater]

It's times like this where we should just ride the Euro.  It's usually more consistent within 120 hours.

 

Yup. Nobody should be getting too exited until the king gets on board, regardless of what the GFS says. And the Canadian should always be taken with about a mountain of salt, but it can have the right idea, one in awhile...... However, the southeast trend may bode well for us to steal a minor event from wrap around. I'd feel better about it if I lived north of hwy 20, go figure.

[gosaints]

Ugly. Towel in hand. Haha! IA and WI peeps gonna get rocked.

Already?

[Tom]

12z Ukie digging this storm down towards the Texarkana region...the GGEM may have had the right idea after all...we'll see what the Euro shows...

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

[St Paul Storm]

Already?

It’s in hand....but I’ll wait to throw it until tomorrow. I’ve seen this act before.

 

We need to get an early phase and a more wound up system for a NW pull. Having the major models all jump on the SE trend is not good. But I’ll take an inch or two.

[Tom]

We may be seeing the -EPO driving the storm farther SE as we get closer to the event.

[gosaints]

It’s in hand....but I’ll wait to throw it until tomorrow. I’ve seen this act before.

 

We need to get an early phase and a more wound up system for a NW pull. Having the major models all jump on the SE trend is not good. But I’ll take an inch or two.

Right.  

 

Still lots at play for you.  Even if the GGEM has the right Idea if the that lead wave weakens that thing could still cut hard.

 

Way to much time left to throw the towel.  Especially considering the lack of snow cover.

[Tom]

12z GEFS SLP mean now tracking south of Chicago...C KC/MO/C IL/SE MI track...

[gosaints]

[gosaints]

12z GEFS members actually have more spread.  Mean is actually north and west of 6z.

[bud2380]

UK in line with the GEM.  I can't tell for sure where the rain/snow line is, but likely the defo area is snow.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2017121800/conus/ukmet_6hr_precip_conus_120.png

[Tom]

Man, this system is getting interesting, even around here. Still though, we will likely see more ideas going forward. I think the Euro follows the trend. Just my gut feeling on this based on what I’m seeing and seasonal trends.

[WBadgersW]

Things are starting to look interesting around here. We'll have to see if the SE bleed continues and whether there's a last minute slight adjustment to the NW. Those NW corrections are killer around here.

[gosaints]

Its totally different evolution of the storm this morning.  Sensible weather wise it looks like a simple shift SE when in fact it isnt that at all.   If the southern piece that is influencing and becoming stronger.  That piece have actually jumped NW as it has become stronger.  

[Hawkeye]

12z UK is now a whiff for Minneapolis.  Unfortunately, this run delays the organization of the southern wave, so there's very little precip until it's past Iowa.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2017121812/conus/ukmet_mslp_conus_108.png

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2017121812/conus/ukmet_acc_precip_conus_120.png

[bud2380]

my bad, i posted the 00z UK.  

[jaster220]

@ Jaster, boy, this sure looks like the evolution of the late Oct GL's bomb, doesn't it???  Last minute trends bring me back to those days of tracking the southern energy phasing with the northern piece.  It's not entirely the same, but certainly brings flashbacks.

 

It may work out to be more like the Oct 10/11 or 13/14 systems, but agree, there's plenty of similarities

 

Definitely, and this season, I have seen several storm systems in the medium range shift more towards focusing in on the southern energy rather than the northern piece.  For instance, the bigger systems that I recall were the Oct 23rd/24th GL's bombs/Nov 17th-18th lower lakes storm.

 

Well, if indeed this ends up delaying the strengthening phase it would be very much like the Nov 17/18 storm in that regard (remember that early GFS run flashed a mega-bliz for E Neb). So far, nothing shows this bringing me more than a sideways dusting, so I'm hopeful for others here including yourself to score well from this. An intense RN>>SN scenario is an intriguing scenario, for it's rarity alone, so I'm certainly following along here. We know how this goes tho, it's a huge forum and aside from a massive bowling ball, there's bound to be winners and losers..

[bud2380]

Euro looks about the same as last night through 72 hours.

[bud2380]

Euro is basically a carbon copy of it's 00z run.  at hour 96 there is a long and weakening trough from E Iowa to east of Chicago and extending SW down into TX.  Looks weak and so far not seeing anything that would make me thing a secondary low will form behind it.  

[St Paul Storm]

No big dog but I’ll take 4-6” per the Euro. Nice recovery from 0z.

 

This hobby is madenning.

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, the euro is pretty darn consistent.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121812/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_102.png

[Craig-OmahaWX]

It may be consistent but i sure remember the GFS having a better track record so far this winter. We shall see what happens. Nice to know we are back in play here in Nebraska.

[gosaints]

It may be consistent but i sure remember the GFS having a better track record so far this winter. We shall see what happens. Nice to know we are back in play here in Nebraska.

The EURO and GFS are not far apart.

[Minny_Weather]

The EURO and GFS are not far apart.

One covers here and the other one doesn't. That's the issue here.

[Tom]

No big dog but I’ll take 4-6” per the Euro. Nice recovery from 0z.

 

This hobby is madenning.

Ain’t that the truth! The Euro does show it trying to strengthen once near the GL’s so prob some more room there for excitement.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

If i wanted a storm I'd definitely want the GFS on my side then the euro. I've trusted the european in too many instances only to get majorly disappointed lol. Believe me.

[Jaycee]

Honestly gotta side with Craig on that one. I think the EURO is still king, but gosh, the last few years, atleast in it's storm-handling out in this area, it has been way off, and GFS is usually pretty good, even though it also has its fair share of whiffs. I'll take the GFS right now, but certainly don't like having the EURO against us.

[St Paul Storm]

If i wanted a storm I'd definitely want the GFS on my side then the euro. I've trusted the european in too many instances only to get majorly disappointed lol. Believe me.

But would you think differently if the Euro showed a favorable outcome for your area?

[jaster220]

But would you think differently if the Euro showed a favorable outcome for your area?

 

Kinda a loaded question tbh. I'd be siding (rooting for) whichever was treating mby the best. That's how this rolls.    All the models have improved to the point where they take turns "nailing it". Wasn't that way in the past, but has become that way it seems. You always hope that the one showing the best outcome is the one that has caught on with the latest trend/adjustment/data ingest. Like you said, this is a rough pastime! 

 

pas·time

ˈpasˌtīm/

noun

 

1. an activity that someone does regularly for enjoyment rather than work; a hobby.

[gosaints]

 

Kinda a loaded question tbh. I'd be siding (rooting for) whichever was treating mby the best. That's how this rolls. All the models have improved to the point where they take turns "nailing it". Wasn't that way in the past, but has become that way it seems. You always hope that the one showing the best outcome is the one that has caught on with the latest trend/adjustment/data ingest. Like you said, this is a rough pastime!

pas·time

ˈpasˌtīm/

 

noun

•  

   

   

  an activity that someone does regularly for enjoyment rather than work; a hobby.

All the models?

[Niko]

The GOM is open for business. I am seeing moisture building up down there. Something to keep an eye on the next few days.