The Winter Solstice Storm

[james1976]

DMX still going with potential advisory snows across N IA with light-moderate accumulations.

[St Paul Storm]

0z NAM isn’t half bad. However, the low moves from the AR/OK border to just south of Green Bay in 3 hours? What is this comedy hour? I’m sure it’s just not accurately showing the position of the low, but still.

[Hoosier]

0z NAM isn’t half bad. However, the low moves from the AR/OK border to just south of Green Bay in 3 hours? What is this comedy hour? I’m sure it’s just not accurately showing the position of the low, but still.

That wild looking movement can happen when you have an elongated surface trough like this. Models struggle with where to place the lowest pressure.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

0z nam was so disorganized, dont really trust that thing unless its 48 hrs to go

[bud2380]

GFS weaker at 72 hours vs. 18z run.

[gosaints]

GFS weaker at 72 hours vs. 18z run.

Looks like a turd so far

[GDR]

Puke city right here

[St Paul Storm]

This isn’t going to be good for many.

[bud2380]

Looks further south too.

[bud2380]

Green Bay and surrounding areas are the big winner on this run. Maybe the only winner.

[St Paul Storm]

Wow, talk about a dud. Lol.

[gosaints]

Similar song and dance to the last 2 seasons.. Progressive weak and unphased

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Lol. Seems like the GFS is looking more and more like the dud of a NAM. This always happens. If its north of us its strong as hell but the only way it can come south and affect us is if its weaker lol. 

[bud2380]

No secondary SLP on the GFS either again.

[GDR]

Wow all this model watching for this? Wash rinse repeat! Same December different year

[Grizzcoat]

actually a slight improvement here in C.IA-- all I ever wanted was 1-2" which is what it shows....

[Craig-OmahaWX]

If this turns out to be nothing i'll feel like I've wasted a week of my life lol. Onto the canadian and EURO!

[Grizzcoat]

[bud2380]

Canadian has given up on its secondary storm idea.

[St Paul Storm]

GEM not looking all that much better thru 90.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Well I guess we better just lower out standards people, otherwise we'll just get pissed. Honestly 1-3 would be nice to get.

 

CMC actually looks better organized then the GFS which is odd because CMC was the one leading the pack in the weakest.

 

[WBadgersW]

GFS is an improvement by me. Usually I hate Nickle and dime events, but with it being Christmas, I'd take 2+".

[bud2380]

Canadian showing a few inches from Hwy 30 on North in Iowa.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Presenting....Frankie MacDonald.

 

https://www.facebook.com/frankie.m.donald/videos/10155156369181245/

[Minny_Weather]

Presenting....Frankie MacDonald.

 

https://www.facebook.com/frankie.m.donald/videos/10155156369181245/

He follows my weather account on Twitter.

[Bryan1117]

Beggars can't be choosers around here... I would gladly take 1-2 inches of snow here, especially given that it will stick around through Christmas and probably into the New Year with the cold air intrusion coming later this week.

 

This event will probably be for the most part a bust for most of this forum, however we need to be happy with what we get this Winter. Just give us something better than freezing rain or .1 of snow for goodness sakes LOL! 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Beggars can't be choosers around here... I would gladly take 1-2 inches of snow here, especially given that it will stick around through Christmas and probably into the New Year with the cold air intrusion coming later this week.

 

This event will probably be for the most part a bust for most of this forum, however we need to be happy with what we get this Winter. Just give us something better than freezing rain or .1 of snow for goodness sakes LOL! 

Yeah I guess your right Bryan. 1-3 would be nice treat after a boring two months. Plus could be 30-40 mph winds with it as well. I guess the best option for right now is to get a good placement of the low and maybe in a day or two the intensity comes back a bit. 

[Grizzcoat]

UKIE more suppressed also.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

NAVY has been showing the system falling apart for days...we all know its the bottom of the barrel in terms of models but man if this happens it will score some points

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

GFS ensembles really weakened the system as well. 

[Grizzcoat]

The UK MET full run with precip maps and extrapolating snow with 850 temps is pretty discouraging. It has cut way back on precip and if right, areas that looked to do fairly well may not even seen .5". Probably an outlier but I think we agree that the Euro is not going to suddenly strengthen the system when all others have it suppressed and weakened.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php

[james1976]

My guess is the Euro will stay put. Its been fairly consistent with a weaker solution.....although a bit more north.

[Money]

I’ll take 4-7 from this and run with it

[Minny_Weather]

I’ll take 4-7 from this and run with it

Hell at this rate I'd take 1-2 here.

[Money]

Euro way south and weaker

 

3-5/4-6 type event in the heaviest areas ( WI)

[clintbeed1993]

Well, they say if you have nothing nice to say to not say anything at all.  Looks like I won't be posting for awhile...

[Money]

0z euro

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

[Jaycee]

Well, they say if you have nothing nice to say to not say anything at all. Looks like I won't be posting for awhile...

Trust me, I hear ya loud and clear. Disappointing for sure. But if we get any sort of snow I’ll be happy.

[Money]

Euro pulled a curveball at the end

 

Rapidly deepens a low as it heads through IN.

 

Looks like it develops in the AR region and ends up getting sub 997 in MI

[Grizzcoat]

Curve ball at the end helps some - but many areas that had 3-6" amounts now have close to none. Like the N side of the Twin Cities. 

 

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