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The Winter Solstice Storm


Tom

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The mesoscale models, perhaps not surprising, have some real differences in the amount and placement of the snow band across MN and WI.

Agree, but this set up could provide some meso scale banding due to an inverted trough-like feature...

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Probably has a lot to do with the slight reintensifcation of the lead wave, but I dunno.

At 500mb it looked a tad stronger and slower to kick out than previous runs...trend has been thus far at slower ejection out of the SW.  Need this to strengthen quicker to become something appreciable.

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A bit of difference at hr72 on the Canadian compared to the GFS. Slower ejection and a bit stronger,

It seems to have been the only model early on advertising slower ejection....its just been taking a southerly route for any of us to cash in...

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Good

Good luck, Tom. I admire your willingness to stick with this thing. It certainly didn’t turn out to be the gift many of us were hoping for. But hey look, another 150 hour storm on the new GFS and GEM.

Its unfortunate, but what can you do about it???  Just look forward and not back...still, If it does produce anything for some on here it just adds to their holiday festivities.

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@ Tom

 

"12z GGEM...getting close...but no cigar yet, but I've noticed its hanging back this piece of energy like the Euro/Euro Control have for Christmas Eve/Day..."

 

Some show a Clipper or w/e, but I really wanted to see those two come together and make something memorable. Can it still happen? Can that first piece slow down enough so the 2nd catches it?? Yesterday's runs had that happening, but like I said b4, it happens too late for us and NE Canada gets another bomb..we get bitter winds on the backside..

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, if that 28th-ish storm is f'real, that means the impending Arctic push is more hit-n-run. Gonna make IWX's 6 day long SWS look kinda falsely apocolyptic imho.. :rolleyes:

 

Edit- either that, or it hits, holds, and pushes that storm way south and the GFS just hasn't a clue yet?? Could see that tbh. I've maintained for some time that OHV down to the OH River is way overdue a severe winter and this one may just have it's eye on that region for ground-zero of worst departures from avg

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I think for the year I have maybe 5" thus far and I think I am being generous with that total... I cant remember in my lifetime a year like this for these parts. And looking at the next 11 days or so don't see much that would increase that total....CRAZY!!!

I've been keeping track and am a little over 2" for the season.

 

I think things are looking up in the future. Hopefully it works out.

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@ Tom

 

"12z GGEM...getting close...but no cigar yet, but I've noticed its hanging back this piece of energy like the Euro/Euro Control have for Christmas Eve/Day..."

 

Some show a Clipper or w/e, but I really wanted to see those two come together and make something memorable. Can it still happen? Can that first piece slow down enough so the 2nd catches it?? Yesterday's runs had that happening, but like I said b4, it happens too late for us and NE Canada gets another bomb..we get bitter winds on the backside..

Good summation.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Map speaks for itself. I get some crappy mix. Next week if it even happens looks to be 70% ZR. Christmas has no agreement from globals. Not sure what I'd post tbh?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here's a post, lol. Can we return to my Clipper pattern soon?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here's a post, lol. Can we return to my Clipper pattern soon?

:lol: I sure would like too.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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