January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[jaster220]

Found a list:  The 2nd one (the associated wind gusts are listed underneath) mainly affected the Maritime Provinces of Eastern Canada:

 

 

Lowest pressure.. 

                               940 mb or 27.76 inHg Superstorm Sandy October 2012

                               955 mb or 28.20 inHg south of Nova Scotia  March 26, 2014: 

                               960 mb or 28.35 inHg The Blizzard of 1993

                               968 mb or 28.59 inHg February 2013 blizzard

                               968 mb or 28.59 inHg April 5 - 7, 1982 Nor'easterHighest wind gusts..

                                   82 mph on Nantucket, MA: Highest gust since official records began in 1998

                                 114 mph Wreckhouse, NL: beating the previous record set in 2007

                                 119 mph Buoy off the coast of Maine: This observation is under review

                                 129 mph on Seal Island in the Bay of Fundy

 

So my guesses were pretty good; even before I found the list...

 

We may need a "former EC peeps" thread soon Tom..

[Tabitha]

It will be interesting to see if this thing actually makes "landfall" in the US. It could be close as models have had the center flirting with the coast of Maine. Very rare to get a 950s (or, gasp, maybe even 940s?!) storm in the winter at that latitude/longitude.

 

The 18z RGEM; which is one of the best models inside of 36 hours; has the cyclonic center coming ashore around Yarmouth, Nova Scotia at Hour 31 (1:00 AM GMT Friday) with a central pressure of 950 mb / 28.05". 

 

It looks like it remains well SE of the 40 / 70 Benchmark as it passes SE of the Nantucket Island and then well east of the Maine coast (at least 100 miles offshore); as most of these things do; since the tendency to traverse the baroclinic zone between the land and the water is pervasive.

[jaster220]

It will be interesting to see if this thing actually makes "landfall" in the US. It could be close as models have had the center flirting with the coast of Maine. Very rare to get a 950s (or, gasp, maybe even 940s?!) storm in the winter at that latitude/longitude.

Saw your post on Amwx about hoping it didn't, but tbh, thanks to NWS employees in MN bird-dogging the heck outta "Octo-Bomb" in 2010, the Cleveland Super-bomb lost bragging rights..on a technicality!

 

It's known to have continued to deepen after passing NNW of CLE to 950 or 951 mb as recorded in Sarnia, which means Pt. Huron in MI would've had the same reading on the US side. But, back then apparently the storm was so disruptive nobody paid attention to those details in that era. The lowest baro was actually reached over Lk. Huron, while US territory not sure if that'd be considered "over land" or not tbh?

 

Discussed this with Bill Deedler from DTX some years back..

[jaster220]

The 18z RGEM; which is one of the best models inside of 36 hours; has the cyclonic center coming ashore around Yarmouth, Nova Scotia at Hour 31 (1:00 AM GMT Friday) with a central pressure of 950 mb / 28.05".

 

Not US territory, so Octo-Bomb looks safe for purely non-tropical origin cyclones

[Tabitha]

Not US territory, so Octo-Bomb looks safe for purely non-tropical origin cyclones

 

Anyway, if anything like this ever did come up the NJ coast and make extratropical landfall in the New York Bight; it would be nothing but a rainstorm up into New Hampshire & Vermont; as the entire column practically up into the province of Quebec would warm dramatically...especially if there were not an arctic anticyclone sitting over eastern Canada to hold the cold air in place.

 

Hence the post I made about deep lows not necessarily making for good snow storms; particularly near the water.

 

Of course the track is the all controlling variable.

[jaster220]

Looking forward to the next Euro/CMC run tonight. If 0z GFS is anything like the 18z then it will not even be worth looking at.

18z was a complete un-phased dog turd! No wonder Tom said wait. Sheesh that was ugly! Looks like perhaps every last ounce of phase magic for the entire E CONUS will be spent on yet another EC bliz

[jaster220]

Jaster; all the likes you have graced my posts with demonstrate an unwavering and boundless loyalty; and it is due to this fidelity that I am henceforth going to offer you a job with My Organization...and the Great Work we are in the midst of.  Are you interested in joining?  The benefits that come with the job are fantastic; the trick is not to get tossed into the Lake of Fire; that's really the key to the benefit program...

Are you undercover for the Sith or something? This is not the first time your off-topic post has mentioned being on the wrong side of the galactic struggle..

[Niko]

Currently @ 15F under partly cloudy skies.

[Hoosier]

The 18z RGEM; which is one of the best models inside of 36 hours; has the cyclonic center coming ashore around Yarmouth, Nova Scotia at Hour 31 (1:00 AM GMT Friday) with a central pressure of 950 mb / 28.05".

 

It looks like it remains well SE of the 40 / 70 Benchmark as it passes SE of the Nantucket Island and then well east of the Maine coast (at least 100 miles offshore); as most of these things do; since the tendency to traverse the baroclinic zone between the land and the water is pervasive.

Yeah you're right. I had only been looking at zoomed out maps which made it look like a closer pass.

[Niko]

Snow is already reaching CNJ.

[GDR]

Talk about a turd look at the 0z

[Money]

Gfs has a nice storm for IA/IL/WI on the 11th

[Tony]

Talk about a turd look at the 0z

They can't get rid of the GFS fast enough. Just terrible.

[Money]

Gfs has a nice storm for IA/IL/WI on the 11th

GEM agrees with this also

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018010400&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=157

[Tony]

GEM agrees with this also

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018010400&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=157

Only a week away...what could possibly go wrong.

 

Joking aside, it really does look like one heck of a storm

[Money]

Only a week away...what could possibly go wrong.

 

Joking aside, it really does look like one heck of a storm

GEM is a little faster (hr 144-156) timeframe but yeah been hard to get these storms within 3 days this year

 

Hopefully this is the one tho been showing up past couple days

[Tabitha]

Talk about a turd look at the 0z

 

0z GFS has a snow event in the Black Hills on Sunday; and another one towards next Wednesday into Thursday; at least it provides a little hope.

 

Canadian has nothing for this area; but is good for N. Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, northern Illinois...with some weak disturbances moving through over the next 10 days.

[Money]

Here’s the 0z gfs for that storm

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018010400&fh=198&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[Tabitha]

0z GFS has a snow event in the Black Hills on Sunday; and another one towards next Wednesday into Thursday; at least it provides a little hope.

 

Canadian has nothing for this area; but is good for N. Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, northern Illinois...with some weak disturbances moving through over the next 10 days.

 

It seems the luck never seems to go this way; it reminds me of that saying:

 

Misfortune; the kind of fortune that never misses!

 

But the "CPC" 6 -10 and 8 -14 have been saying "above normal" precip. here since about 1917...I think they were fibbing; or at the every least engaging in willful prevarication in order to elicit additional views...

[Tabitha]

Only a week away...what could possibly go wrong.

 

Joking aside, it really does look like one heck of a storm

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvD6ilfrBw8#t=02m02s

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The evolution of this storm is gonna change like crazy, so don't get stuck on one pattern lol. Read Gary Lezacs blog and seems like a more pronounced negatively tilted storm could form out of this

[james1976]

Here’s the 0z gfs for that storm

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018010400&fh=198&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Best 'spread the wealth' storm ive seen yet this season.

[Tabitha]

0z GFS has a snow event in the Black Hills on Sunday; and another one towards next Wednesday into Thursday; at least it provides a little hope.

 

 

I looked at the GFS snow map and wondered where the snow went for Sunday; and then I noticed in semi-amazement that the model actually has rain  here on Sunday; below about 4500 feet or so.  I incorrectly assumed and took for granted that in the middle of January I would at least get snow at 3500' and 44 N latitude; but not this year!

 

Actually the temperature at the surface is not so much a problem; but rather at 850 mb; as it goes up to about +7 C on Saturday before slowly going down over the next 24 hours.

 

GFS is probably overdoing the temps; and odds are it will be cool enough by then (climatology infers that rain is hard to come by here in January); but still, not terribly encouraging...

 

Bring on spring!

[Minny_Weather]

Here’s the 0z gfs for that storm

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_024h&rh=2018010400&fh=198&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Move that South and I'll take it.

[Tabitha]

Move that s**t South and I'll take it.

 

I remember that movie Airport (1970) where the airport they were trying to land at was called "Lincoln" though it was actually in Chicago...which made for some confusion...not just for the pilot.

 

In a film that, at times, moved at a rather laborious pace; this was definitely the best scene:

 

http://www.airlinetv.net/view_video.php?viewkey=6fffe2ee4ddf4a988880

[Money]

Move that s**t South and I'll take it.

You have more snow than Chicago and I this winter

[Craig-OmahaWX]

WOW the euro has a monster system! The storm moves more east which brings some heavier snow through eastern Neb. Still most of it west but we do get some accumulating snow out of it. Alll models look different lol

[Craig-OmahaWX]

You have more snow than Chicago and I this winter

Who cares, its everyone for themselves lol. 

[Tom]

00z Euro basically a no show for a lot of us except if you live in C IL or IN for the Sun/Mon system....swing and a miss with this one it seems...as for the system later next week, 00z EPS suggesting a warm cutter and hits those members up north.

[Minny_Weather]

I've seen better things in my cat's litterbox than 00z Euro. It literally shows a March-like rain pattern in January.

[Minny_Weather]

NAM showing an ice storm over Central and South MO on the last run.

[Tom]

I've seen better things in my cat's litterbox than 00z Euro. It literally shows a March-like rain pattern in January.

LOL, ya, no joke...what the heck was wrong with that run???  Teleconnections show no support with that such solution.  At this point, I wouldn't be surprised.

[Tom]

I can't believe temps in N MN are still hovering in the low -30's...#icebox....

[jaster220]

I can't believe temps in N MN are still hovering in the low -30's...#icebox....

 

This winter's only midwestern headlines, outside of the LES belts. #disappointing for most

[james1976]

00z Euro basically a no show for a lot of us except if you live in C IL or IN for the Sun/Mon system....swing and a miss with this one it seems...as for the system later next week, 00z EPS suggesting a warm cutter and hits those members up north.

Throwing in the towel already?! That's not the Tom we know! Lol

[Tom]

Throwing in the towel already?! That's not the Tom we know! Lol

I’m not seeing it with this one, models are not suggesting any good trends in phasing and basically taking the southern energy farther south. I think the monster EC storm is throwing a wrench in this one. I’d be happy to score 2”, believe me, but it’s gonna take a shift in track to do so.

[westMJim]

Today will make the 16^th day in a row of snow fall here in Grand Rapids. While here at my house I had just over 5” of new snow at GRR they only reported 2.5” The airport reports 8” on the ground and my total this morning is 12.5” for the month of January Grand Rapids is now at 3.2” and for the season the total at GRR is now 36.7” With the cold and snow we have had One has to wonder if the pendulum will now swing back to warmer and less snow in the weeks ahead?

[westMJim]

Climatology for today January 4^th   At Grand Rapids, MI

 

The average H/L for Grand Rapids for today is 31/19

The record high is 60° in 1997 the coldest maximum is 10 set in 1981

The record low is -20° set in 1981 the warmest minimum is 39 set in 1909

The largest snow fall is 6.3” in 1941

The most on the ground is 17” in 1999

Last year the H/L was 33/15 and 1.1” of snow fell there was only a trace on the ground at 7AM

[Niko]

Sunny and very cold currently w temps holding @ 7F.

[Tony]

This winter's only midwestern headlines, outside of the LES belts. #disappointing for most

Long range eye candy has not panned out for us this year. I'm actually ready for this winter to be over