January Weather In the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

When was the last Niña three-peat?

[Front Ranger]

When was the last Niña three-peat?

 

1998-2001. Only two others in the modern era, 1973-76 and 1954-57. 1983-86 was close, but 1985-86 wasn't technically a Nina.

[Kayla]

It is indeed the next wishcaster's window. MLK is starting to become too real.

 

Felt like we were losing the spark post holiday, happy to help!!

[snow_wizard]

Was it like Feb 2014?

 

That is a TOTAL insult to 1989!

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, I remember noticing that awhile back. Most low points in the solar cycle the past century have featured multiple Ninas.

 

There almost has to be a relationship there.  Besides that almost every cycle has a Nino JUST after the cycle hits bottom.  Then of course you have the fact we have seen at least one and in most cases two good winters right at the bottom of the cycle for the past three cycles.

[Deweydog]

Tri-split flow!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That is a TOTAL insult to 1989!

So there was a foot of snow in Tillamook with that one?

[snow_wizard]

So there was a foot of snow in Tillamook with that one?

 

Not sure, but it was one of the top 5 blasts of the 20th century.  I know there was some snow there.

[snow_wizard]

Wow!

 

I just saw the daily stats for SEA today and I noticed they had 3 inches of snow on Jan 1 last year.  I so totally purged that from my mind I thought the climate page was in error.  I must have been really peeved on that one.

 

How weird is that?  Snow on New Years last winter and on Christmas this winter!

[TT-SEA]

Wow!

 

I just saw the daily stats for SEA today and I noticed they had 3 inches of snow on Jan 1 last year.  I so totally purged that from my mind I thought the climate page was in error.  I must have been really peeved on that one.

 

How weird is that?  Snow on New Years last winter and on Christmas this winter!

 

That was a great event here.    And the c-zone got stuck over SEA but never moved into your area and you reported the next day that you had been throwing things in anger.   

 

It was also a case where you thought the cold air was roaring in... but it was not.    You overestimate cold air speed and penetration more than the MM5 models and they always overestimate it.   

[Front Ranger]

If nothing else, at least it looks like this winter will continue to be blocky for the foreseeable future. I think the Jan 2006 fears can be dismissed now.

[Kayla]

So there was a foot of snow in Tillamook with that one?

 

4" of snow and a 17F/9F day there. PDX pulled off a 15F/9F day and SLE had almost 9" of snow.

 

Much greater region wide event.

[Front Ranger]

That was a great event here.    And the c-zone got stuck over SEA but never moved into your area and you reported the next day that you had been throwing things.   

 

It was also a case where you thought the cold air was roaring in... but it was not.    You overestimate cold air penetration more than the MM5 models and they always overestimate it.   

 

Check the diary?

[TT-SEA]

If nothing else, at least it looks like this winter will continue to be blocky for the foreseeable future. I think the Jan 2006 fears can be dismissed now.

 

Already more dry days this month than in January 2006... we will be up to 1 at midnight!  

[TT-SEA]

Check the diary?

 

I remember that event very clearly.   And I remember thinking he was crazy on New Years Eve last year with his talk of cold air roaring in... when it was clearly going to be limping in slowly.   And that is the reason that I made the point about this past Saturday when he said the ECMWF was completely wrong with the entire wind field and the low had tracked south and cold air was roaring in... of course we had southerly winds all of the next day and a high of 48.   <_>

[BLI snowman]

If nothing else, at least it looks like this winter will continue to be blocky for the foreseeable future. I think the Jan 2006 fears can be dismissed now.

2001: An Analog Odyssey

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM is very different than the GFS after day 6. The trough energy it cut-off off well to the south with a much stronger ridge/near block offshore by day 8

[TT-SEA]

Check the diary?

 

And remember... this forum is our diary.      That was an epic meltdown by Jim.  He actually left the forum 12 days later and posted a topic on it...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1492-im-leaving-the-forum-for-a-while/

[Winterdog]

The 0Z says it's going to be late January at the earliest if we are going to have more winter.

[TT-SEA]

The 0Z says it's going to be late January at the earliest if we are going to have more winter.

 

 

Its the first day of the month... how many times do we really know what will happen the entire month on the first day?

[snow_wizard]

00z GEM is verydifferent than GFS after day 6. The trough energy it cut-off off well to the south with a much stronger ridge/near block offshore by day 8

 

There are a couple of fine details that end up having huge consequences early in week two.  A good outcome can't be ruled out.  Assuming the GFS is correct, however, it once again shows sharply dropping WPO late in the run with a big ULL moving toward the Kamchatka area.  We may only have a short period of crap to deal with regardless.

[Front Ranger]

2001: An Analog Odyssey

 

It's not looking bad thus far. Though that January was very warm in the northern plains and upper Midwest. I'll be surprised if this one turns out that way.

[snow_wizard]

The 0Z says it's going to be late January at the earliest if we are going to have more winter.

 

Even the GFS would suggest something starting to come together by week 3.  That would be about right if the ECMWF is right about the MJO being in octant 5 by the 15th to the 20th.

[Front Ranger]

00z GEM is very different than the GFS after day 6. The trough energy it cut-off off well to the south with a much stronger ridge/near block offshore by day 8

 

I don't get your sig.

[snow_wizard]

It's not looking bad thus far. Though that January was very warm in the northern plains and upper Midwest. I'll be surprised if this one turns out that way.

 

It sure hasn't been coming up as an analog in any way I have looked at it. 

[Winterdog]

Its the first day of the month... how many times do we really know what will happen the entire month on the first day?

I was just saying if the 0Z is correct we will be looking at the last week of the month for anything good to develop.  Sure it can change and hopefully it does.

[snow_wizard]

That was a great event here.    And the c-zone got stuck over SEA but never moved into your area and you reported the next day that you had been throwing things in anger.   

 

It was also a case where you thought the cold air was roaring in... but it was not.    You overestimate cold air speed and penetration more than the MM5 models and they always overestimate it.   

 

I don't doubt it.  It is truly amazing how clearly I wiped that from my memory.

[HighlandExperience]

I don't doubt it.  It is truly amazing how clearly I wiped that from my memory.

 

It is common for people with PTSD to wipe their memory clean. We have all experienced trauma in recent years 

[snow_wizard]

I was just saying if the 0Z is correct we will be looking at the last week of the month for anything good to develop.  Sure it can change and hopefully it does.

 

If the GFS is correct it has been advertising the central Pacific ridge late in the run after the Aleutian low sets in for a short time.  That's step number 1 to getting the goods here...assuming it doesn't fool us and go straight into something good early in week two.

[snow_wizard]

It is common for people with PTSD to wipe their memory clean. We have all experienced trauma in recent years 

 

We have had a couple of victories also...thank goodness!

 

What you say is almost scary though.

[TT-SEA]

I was just saying if the 0Z is correct we will be looking at the last week of the month for anything good to develop.  Sure it can change and hopefully it does.

 

Things can (and frequently do) completely change and go in a totally different direction once you get beyond 7 days.

[Kayla]

It's not looking bad thus far. Though that January was very warm in the northern plains and upper Midwest. I'll be surprised if this one turns out that way.

 

Yeah, I don't think that's happening for the upper Midwest. Not with what looks like a frigid first 10 days of the month for them. Would have to be some serious torching the second half of the month to overcome such negative departures.

 

http://prism.nacse.org/inc/images/graphics/comparisons/monthly/tmean/viewable/PRISM_tmean_stable_4kmM2_anomaly_200101.png?ts=201811

[Phil]

Yeah, I remember noticing that awhile back. Most low points in the solar cycle the past century have featured multiple Ninas.

Yeah, note how the system tends to enter into a niño state towards the end of solar minimum, followed by a more prolonged niña stretch to open the next solar cycle, almost like a negative feedback of sorts (to the radiative forcing).

 

[TT-SEA]

It is common for people with PTSD to wipe their memory clean. We have all experienced trauma in recent years 

 

Are you comparing freaking out over the weather to living through military combat?     

[Kayla]

Things can (and frequently do) completely change and go in a totally different direction once you get beyond 7 days.

 

Beyond 3-4 days for that matter this season.

[TT-SEA]

Beyond 3-4 days for that matter this season.

 

True.  

[Gradient Keeper]

I don't get your sig.

Oh Lol. After Christmas I went to my profile to change my pic and noticed that I had received a 1 star rating/review or whatever. Lol I just went from there adding my usual flair of nonsense.

 

--

0z ECMWF in 23 minutes

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, I don't think that's happening for the upper Midwest. Not with what looks like a frigid first 10 days of the month for them. Would have to be some serious torching the second half of the month to overcome such negative departures.

 

http://prism.nacse.org/inc/images/graphics/comparisons/monthly/tmean/viewable/PRISM_tmean_stable_4kmM2_anomaly_200101.png?ts=201811

January 2001 had a pretty chilly start in the East. Pattern sputtered out and went into blandsville pretty fast though.

[Phil]

The current pattern over North America is like a tiny version of the last glacial maximum. Giant, bone dry upper level high over Alaska, swath of vodka cold over Canada and the Northern US.

 

[Front Ranger]

It sure hasn't been coming up as an analog in any way I have looked at it. 

 

The last few weeks have been fairly similar to Dec 2000.