January Weather In the PNW

[HighlandExperience]

Dry patterns are almost always chilly in the winter. Its not surprising or unexpected that it would be chilly when half the days or more have been dry since the start of meteorological winter. Particularly in notoriously stagnant places like OLM.

I should remind everyone that Atlanta barely made it above freezing today!

[Winterdog]

Dry patterns are almost always chilly in the winter.    Its not surprising or unexpected that it would be chilly when half the days or more have been dry since the start of meteorological winter.   Particularly in notoriously stagnant places like OLM.

You ought to write travel brochures

[Front Ranger]

As far as I can tell, the closest -ENSO pattern matches to these first 7-10 days of January are: 1962, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1996, and 2014.

 

Lot of mixed signals as far as how the rest of January might go, but the overall theme seemed to be blockiness alternating between Alaska, just offshore, and over the west coast. Generally drier than normal. Higher than normal chance of Arctic air late month into early February.

[Deweydog]

The next few weeks don’t look all that chilly to me. Probably near average. To me it feels like we are building up a lot of “karma” right now, as you might call it, considering heights have generally been higher than average around here since the end of October or so.

 

In other words calling for a warmer last half of the month seems a little out of left field considering we will be pretty due for some solid troughing by then, IMO.

Persistence be persistin'...

 

Feels to me like if the snow globe is gonna finally get a really good shaking, a period of strong Aleutian/GOA troughing might take over for a bit. It's just as or even more overdue than western troughing.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Mark Nelsen was saying on the 5 o'clock news that a pattern shift is most likely setting up at day 8 with a more consolidated jet.   I know it is just a start but it would be better than this crap.

[Timmy]

Mark Nelsen was saying on the 5 o'clock news that a pattern shift is most likely setting up at day 8 with a more consolidated jet. I know it is just a start but it would be better than this crap.

nothing like some zonal flow to lift spirits!

[Front Ranger]

Mark Nelsen was saying on the 5 o'clock news that a pattern shift is most likely setting up at day 8 with a more consolidated jet.   I know it is just a start but it would be better than this crap.

 

Interesting he would say that. The EPS points to a brief period of troughing, but the pattern looks pretty progressive.

[Guest El nina]

Smells like upper level ridging outside.

[Deweydog]

Smells like upper level ridging outside.

[Bryant]

Wow, this post is sure to lift people's spirits... Hope your wrong...

Your you're is wrong

[DareDuck]

27/25 here in Bend today. The fog we've had since last night has actually been squeezing out some light snow. Have had a dusting here all day with light snow continuing this evening off and on.

[Gradient Keeper]

0z GFS Day 7.5 was close, if the the pattern wasn't progressive

[weather girl]

27/25 here in Bend today. The fog we've had since last night has actually been squeezing out some light snow. Have had a dusting here all day with light snow continuing this evening off and on.

I love fog.  Enjoy.  

[MossMan]

Well that looked promising...for part of a day or so...

[MossMan]

Canadian looked slightly better.

[snow_wizard]

That is actually a nice chilly little trough on the GFS about a week out.  I continue to be encouraged by the looks of the pattern at the end of the run.  Trough digging off the coast of Asia and throwing up a Central Pacific ridge.  I hope something comes of that trough next week to tide us over.

[snow_wizard]

The interesting thing about the pattern a week from now is if you didn't see the frames afterward it would be easy to imagine that pattern digging in and really getting us.  That outcome could still happen, but the models have been awfully insistent we are going to have a brief Aleutian low.  That may be for the best with the resultant pattern reset.

[Farmboy]

Your you're is wrong

Oh darn...

[ShawniganLake]

[luvssnow_spokane]

E56D5A1B-C715-4329-9630-D4F4E5E294B9.png

Not bad ... good mountain snow pattern.

[ShawniganLake]

Not bad ... good mountain snow pattern.

Yea. Could be worse.

[Jesse]

I love fog. Enjoy.

I do as well. Definitely not an opinion you here very often here.

[Guest El nina]

I do as well. Definitely not an opinion you here very often here.

I prefer fog in the garage, even less of a popular opinion.

[Gradient Keeper]

0z ECMWF Day 7

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010300/168/500h_anom.na.png

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010300/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 ..... An Actual consolidated jet?

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010300/216/500h_anom.na.png

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 NOPE that ridge has a real boner for us.... jeez

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010300/240/500h_anom.na.png

 

[Gradient Keeper]

It does look like that awful split flow is going to end in about 8-9 days.

 

--

6z GFS in 2 hours 14 minutes

[ShawniganLake]

Does someone have a link for old 500mb maps? I want to say the PSU site has them but I can’t find them now.

[TT-SEA]

Sky has totally cleared now and the moon is so bright out there. Beautiful night... still 42 degrees with an east wind.

[Gradient Keeper]

@11:31 PM near west Gresham it's down to 34.8(2.5 degrees colder than this time last night), dewpoint 24.7, with east winds 35-45mph it's really roaring out there. Perfect night. I do see the cold air is intensifying a bit east of I-205 to western Gorge as well as a bit drier air mass now too.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Does someone have a link for old 500mb maps? I want to say the PSU site has them but I can’t find them now.

 

Try this: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2008.html

[ShawniganLake]

Try this: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2008.html

That is the one I was thinking of. I had just found it. Thank you for the reply.

[ShawniganLake]

The interesting thing about the pattern a week from now is if you didn't see the frames afterward it would be easy to imagine that pattern digging in and really getting us. That outcome could still happen, but the models have been awfully insistent we are going to have a brief Aleutian low. That may be for the best with the resultant pattern reset.

Hopefully it’s “brief”

 

[crf450ish]

3.9 earthquake near Morton, wa.

 

 

 

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/uw61362346#executive

[SilverFallsAndrew]

32 under high clouds this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like it was clear all night... moon is still shining through the window this morning as it starts to set.  

 

39 here right now... 36 at SEA.

 

Might make it to 50 out here today with sunshine.

[Geos]

29 here with lots of frost again.

[TT-SEA]

29 here with lots of frost again.

 

Actually up to 40 here now. 

 

I see its 46 just to the east of here at 4,340 feet.  

[HighlandExperience]

Actually up to 40 here now.

 

I see its 46 just to the east of here at 4,340 feet.

29 in hotlanta