January Weather In the PNW

[Front Ranger]

Oh Lol. After Christmas I went to my profile to change my pic and noticed that I had received a 1 star rating/review or whatever. Lol I just went from there adding my usual flair of nonsense.

 

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0z ECMWF in 23 minutes

 

Ah. Silly people and silly ratings.

[Phil]

FWIW, there is clearly an inverted dipping bird function present, with regards to decadal/multi-decadal ENSO evolution. Not exactly sure how/why this would exist, but it does..

 

[Kayla]

January 2001 had a pretty chilly start in the East. Pattern sputtered out and went into blandsville pretty fast though.

 

Yeah, looks to take a bit longer this year though.

[Winterdog]

Things can (and frequently do) completely change and go in a totally different direction once you get beyond 7 days.

You are starting to sound a little like Jim.   

[Kayla]

The current pattern over North America is like a tiny version of the last glacial maximum. Giant, bone dry upper level high over Alaska, swath of vodka cold over Canada and the Northern US.

 

 

Hasn't Europe been warm this year though, unlike the LGM?

[Phil]

Hasn't Europe been warm this year though, unlike the LGM?

Yeah, that’s why I said “over North America”.

[Phil]

This is interesting. Thermal inertia of ice melt/latent heat absorption definitely plays a role in seasonality.

 

[Kayla]

Yeah, that’s why I said “over North America”.

 

Ah, missed that part. Still interesting to see the difference nonetheless with an even stronger upper level high over AK. 

[Phil]

AlpineExperience is right. Lowland winters are..eh. (Jk).

 

Per usual, note the low resolution. Dots represent stations. I’m guessing the white dot in WA is Mt. Baker or something.

 

[ShawniganLake]

GFS ensembles pretty much washed out any sign of troughing over the next couple weeks.

[Front Ranger]

AlpineExperience is right. Lowland winters are..eh. (Jk).

 

Per usual, note the low resolution. Dots represent stations. I’m guessing the white dot in WA is Mt. Baker or something.

 

 

Rainier. I've heard it can get pretty windy up there...

[Phil]

Rainier. I've heard it can get pretty windy up there...

Ah, thanks. I can’t zoom in much on this phone.

 

And lol. I’ve heard that as well.

[TT-SEA]

You are starting to sound a little like Jim. 

 

Well... about 9 days before Christmas everyone had given up on a white Christmas.   I said that I was holding out hope until we got within 7 days because it could still change.   And even that was too far out since things were changing even more than usual.   But we did end up with a white Christmas... even in Seattle.   

[Phil]

Ah, missed that part. Still interesting to see the difference nonetheless with an even stronger upper level high over AK.

Yeah, much different Atlantic circulation back then. Very suppressed Hadley Cell. There was almost no Ferrel Cell at all, given how “intrusive” the polar front was.

[Winterdog]

[Jesse]

[Winterdog]

I dare you to walk around outside between now and April without a jacket.

It was pure hyperbole son.

[Bryant]

And remember... this forum is our diary. That was an epic meltdown by Jim. He actually left the forum 12 days later and posted a topic on it...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1492-im-leaving-the-forum-for-a-while/

You're pathetic ☺

[Phil]

Prolific +PNA stretch since Thanksgiving. I suspect this will terminate in February, but it will put up a fight.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

[ShawniganLake]

Prolific +PNA stretch since Thanksgiving. I suspect this will terminate in February, but it will put up a fight.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

It wouldn’t feel like January without a nice stretch of positive PNA.

[Gradient Keeper]

And remember... this forum is our diary.      That was an epic meltdown by Jim.  He actually left the forum 12 days later and posted a topic on it...

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1492-im-leaving-the-forum-for-a-while/

Why would you bring that up with the link added. Why. I'm just shaking my head right now. Nothing positive, helpful, or constructive can from you doing so. You absolutely love to kick Jim or poke him as much as you can get away with and it is sickening.

 

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6z GFS in 3 hours

[TT-SEA]

Why would you bring that up with the link added. Why. I'm just shaking my head right now. Nothing positive, helpful, or constructive can from you doing so. You absolutely love to kick Jim or poke him as much as you can get away with and it is sickening.

 

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6z GFS in 3 hours

 

He brought up the New Years Day snow in Seattle last year and said he had completely blocked it from his mind.  He literally wiped it out of his memory... a significant snow event at SEA.   That is amazing.  I remember that event very well.   He was on the attack the day before and then crashed hard.  Then Jared asked tonight if checked my diary.   It was high drama on a weather forum known for high drama and I am one of the top offenders!    

[Gradient Keeper]

..........

[Front Ranger]

Prolific +PNA stretch since Thanksgiving. I suspect this will terminate in February, but it will put up a fight.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

I don't think we'll have to wait until February. Would be almost unprecedented for a Nina.

[Gradient Keeper]

The ugliest EURO Op run of 2018!

[TT-SEA]

..........

 

 

Did you read what he wrote?   That was some serious stuff... deep depression for days and anger outbursts and throwing things and taking drugs.   Why would he admit to that if he was not subconsciously (or consciously) asking for help?  I am not poking him or kicking him.   You would think others would agree that its best if he does not get too high.     But everyone seems to just enable him and attack me for trying to be realistic at times.  Its very strange.   Think about it.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Did you read what he wrote?   That was some serious stuff... deep depression for days and anger outbursts and throwing things and taking drugs.   Why would he admit to that if he was not subconsciously (or consciously) asking for help?  I am not poking him or kicking him.   You would think others would agree that its best if he does not get too high.     But everyone seems to just enable him and attack me for trying to be realistic at times.  Its very strange.   Think about it.  

Yes, I read it, and that's more a reason why I would not have done what you did. It's not about being realistic, or not 'just' about that, it's about constantly having to point out when he's wrong, or how often he's wrong and you make it very clear over and over again. You both have some issues of your own that you have to get a handle on. I feel like I've said this before over a very similar situation, yeah. Anyway

 

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12z NAM in 6 hours 34 minutes

[wx_statman]

Looking around some more at the cold east of the Rockies - Omaha hit -20 this morning, tying for their coldest reading since February 1996 (when -23 was recorded). The only other -20 reading since '96 was on January 4, 2010 during that roided-out -AO stretch. 

 

Omaha is already down to -16 as of 1:00 AM local time.

[HighlandExperience]

[Gradient Keeper]

Sadly yes. The symptoms on this forum mirror those who have suffered severe emotional and physical trauma

Yep. After a snow-less week in January has come and gone I get similar symptoms as I do with my Pizza withdrawals. Horrible

 

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12z ECMWF EPS in 12 hours 11 minutes

[TT-SEA]

Yes, I read it, and that's more a reason why I would not have done what you did. It's not about being realistic, or not 'just' about that, it's about constantly having to point out when he's wrong, or how often he's wrong and you make it very clear over and over again. You both have some issues of your own that you have to get a handle on. I feel like I've said this before over a very similar situation, yeah. Anyway

 

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12z NAM in 6 hours 34 minutes

 

 

I do not constantly point out when he is wrong.   I have not said anything about the vast majority of his posts since he returned after the summer.   And I have agreed with much of what he is seeing with the big picture this year.   His weather knowledge is truly amazing.  He admitted all of this destructive behavior on his own in a separate topic within the last year.   Why would he do that other than reaching out for help.  Then tonight he says he completely blocked it out of his mind and honestly does not remember the event at all.    That is how this came up again in the first place.  

 

We all have issues.   I certainly do... plenty of them.   If you think I hate Jim and want to punish him then you are dead wrong.   It is all about being realistic.  I know that I am very animated at times in doing so and no doubt go too far to bring him back down to reality.   But you are just ignoring all of what he has said and enjoying and encouraging his enthusiasm which he has said is ultimately destroying him.  Always has felt wrong to do that.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Time for night shift to check out the 06z gfs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I do not constantly point out when he is wrong. I have not said anything about the vast majority of his posts since he returned after the summer. And I have agreed with much of what he is seeing with the big picture this year. His weather knowledge is truly amazing. He admitted all of this destructive behavior on his own in a separate topic within the last year. Why would he do that other than reaching out for help. Then tonight he says he completely blocked it out of his mind and honestly does not remember the event at all. That is how this came up again in the first place.

 

We all have issues. I certainly do... plenty of them. If you think I hate Jim and want to punish him then you are dead wrong. It is all about being realistic. I know that I am very animated at times in doing so and no doubt go too far to bring him back down to reality. But you are just ignoring all of what he has said and enjoying and encouraging his enthusiasm which he has said is ultimately destroying him. Always has felt wrong to do that.

I like Jim and enjoy his posts, but his unquenchable Love of winter weather clouds his analysis at times. I get it though, I think a lot of us missed on this winter because last winter ended up going so well. When in reality the likelihood of a great NW winter is always low.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX begins January with a -2 departure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mehhh

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS is boring. Maybe some sleep will make the models show the goods.

[Bryant]

If Bryant is on here today I would be interested to get his take.  He has some talent with this stuff and I have missed his input.

 

Sorry I didn't see this earlier Jim. I appreciate the kind words. I like to look at the filtered MJO wave on Mike Ventrice's site, because it eliminates any noise and false signals, unlike the RMM plots. The MJO has always been my focus because of it's ability to overwhelm the pattern, and take control of the upper levels. The reason the Maritime Continent is the sweet spot during the winter, is due to the interaction is has with the jet stream. As the convection shifts over the MC, the latent heat release fuels the jet stream to the north, in this case over east Asia / Japan. This increased jet, aka jet streak, creates an area of cyclogenisis to the NE of the jet streak, which in turn promotes the wave breaking ridge over the Pacific, resulting in a trough over the PNW. This same concept applies when the MJO shifts over the Pacific, which results in an extended jet and an El Nino pattern for our location. In a way, you can think of the convection associated with the MJO as a magnet, which pulls the jet stream across the Pacific as the convection propagates eastward. I'm sure you're aware of this already, but for those that aren't, hopefully this helps a bit. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX ended 2017 with a -0.3 departure. Eugene and Astoria exactly at average and Salem +1.3 for the year.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I do not constantly point out when he is wrong.   I have not said anything about the vast majority of his posts since he returned after the summer.   And I have agreed with much of what he is seeing with the big picture this year.   His weather knowledge is truly amazing.  He admitted all of this destructive behavior on his own in a separate topic within the last year.   Why would he do that other than reaching out for help.  Then tonight he says he completely blocked it out of his mind and honestly does not remember the event at all.    That is how this came up again in the first place.  

 

We all have issues.   I certainly do... plenty of them.   If you think I hate Jim and want to punish him then you are dead wrong.   It is all about being realistic.  I know that I am very animated at times in doing so and no doubt go too far to bring him back down to reality.   But you are just ignoring all of what he has said and enjoying and encouraging his enthusiasm which he has said is ultimately destroying him.  Always has felt wrong to do that.

Good thing you're here to ensure his analysis is realistic. Refreshing to have someone like you to monitor him and others. Makes me want to increase my participation here too. Many thanks!

[Deweydog]

Pearty sunrise.