January Weather In the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I could be wrong again, but I’m seeing another round of deepish eastern troughing late in January following the shake-up during the middle of January (which I originally thought would be an Arctic opportunity in the west, but..lol).

 

Then I think the switch into a classic Niña/-QBO regime in February is still on track. Maybe something like 2007/08 or 2005/06 or maybe 2011/12. Hard to know the specifics, but I’d lean towards +EPO/-PNA and cool NW flow.

It's just not in the cards for the NW this winter to get an Arctic blast. We've had plenty of opportunities but the models don't want to cooperate. It's just not there this year. At least we were able to make the most out of the chilly air in December and lots of people got some snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas. I agree February looks better but at best it's just going to be cool NW flow.

[Jesse]

It's just not in the cards for the NW this winter to get an Arctic blast. We've had plenty of opportunities but the models don't want to cooperate. It's just not there this year. At least we were able to make the most out of the chilly air in December and lots of people got some snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas. I agree February looks better but at best it's just going to be cool NW flow.

The models don’t want to cooperate? You mean the weather hasn’t wanted to cooperate so far. Contrary to popular belief, the models do not control the weather.

[snow_wizard]

It's just not in the cards for the NW this winter to get an Arctic blast. We've had plenty of opportunities but the models don't want to cooperate. It's just not there this year. At least we were able to make the most out of the chilly air in December and lots of people got some snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas. I agree February looks better but at best it's just going to be cool NW flow.

 

You do realize it's Jan 1 right?  I know you would have said the same in 1989 and other years.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the CPC still expects it to get cold here.  Their updated Jan - Mar forecast is cold.  They have us EC for January itself.

[MossMan]

[Front Ranger]

February 2006 gets marginalized because it was a dry hump but that mid month air mass was very formidable though. 504dm thicknesses made it to Spokane for the only time since December 1998.

There was also an insane east wind event in Tacoma with that. 60+ mph gusts, only east windstorm I ever recall there.

[MossMan]

Down to 30, going to be another chilly night.

Thinking about things, Dec. 2008 was probably our most region wide and longest duration event since the forums have been in existence. I just can’t help but wonder what this place would be like if we had another Jan 1950 repeat...

[TT-SEA]

FWIW the CPC still expects it to get cold here. Their updated Jan - Mar forecast is cold. They have us EC for January itself.

There is no way to know how it will play out... going to just have to see what happens. No use in trying to convince everyone. We all know it can fail even with everything lined up. We will have a better idea in 2-3 weeks.

[TT-SEA]

Down to 30, going to be another chilly night.

Thinking about things, Dec. 2008 was probably our most region wide and longest duration event since the forums have been in existence. I just can’t help but wonder what this place would be like if we had another Jan 1950 repeat...

Dry weather is chilly in the winter... its so nice when we have blocky years with extended dry periods. Even if we don't get much snow.

[snow_wizard]

There was also an insane east wind event in Tacoma with that. 60+ mph gusts, only east windstorm I ever recall there.

 

I remember that event clearly.  I drove to Tacoma just a couple of days later and there were a lot of uprooted trees.  At my place the temperature bottomed out at 23 during the strong winds.  That is a pretty serious cold shot when you figure in down sloping.

 

 

Down to 30, going to be another chilly night.

Thinking about things, Dec. 2008 was probably our most region wide and longest duration event since the forums have been in existence. I just can’t help but wonder what this place would be like if we had another Jan 1950 repeat...

 

It would be quite insane for sure.  I remember when I did my ranking of winters of since 1900... 2008-09 didn't even make the cut for a top 10% winter when all of the factors were weighed.  It did come close though.  That gives you an idea of how much more common really good winters used to be.

[wx_statman]

It was a worst-case scenario from a low level perspective. From mid February sun angles to the backdoor trajectory to the void of any kind of transition event, it wasn't much to write home about.

 

In addition to all that, it didn't line up with the calendar. Our 32 degree maximum on the afternoon of 2/17 was wasted with a 37 degree reading at midnight. 

[wx_statman]

It was very impressive, -14c 850mb temps over us.

 

2005-06 was generally interesting from mid February onwards. The early March trough was also impressive.

 

The 11 degree high at Government Camp on 2/17 was really impressive. Latest on record.

[TT-SEA]

Today was the 16th dry day here since the meteorological start of winter on 12/1.

 

That is a really nice ratio... and it looks like it will generally continue.   

[Kayla]

FWIW, the ECMWF weeklies were actually pretty good today. Especially by late January into early February.

 

20th - 10th could be the next period to watch. Very 1989'ish.

[Dave]

Holy crap. I don't necessarily trust the source, but according to this, snowfall was reported on 24/31 days during Jan 1950 at EUG. I'm in my 40's. Is it too much to ask for this to happen once in my lifetime? 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEUG/1950/1/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=31&monthend=1&yearend=1950&req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo=

[Gradient Keeper]

FWIW, the ECWMF weeklies were actually pretty good today. Especially by late January into early February.

 

20th - 10th could be the next period to watch. Very 1989'ish.

January 22nd - 29th

[Dave]

FWIW, the ECMWF weeklies were actually pretty good today. Especially by late January into early February.

 

20th - 10th could be the next period to watch. Very 1989'ish.

Feb 1989 was delicious. I'd be stoked for a repeat.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Feb 1989 was delicious. I'd be stoked for a repeat.

Was it like Feb 2014?

[Dave]

Was it like Feb 2014?

No, it was much colder. We had a high of 17 and several days of single digit lows, including a low of 2. At least 8 inches of snow on the ground. Dexter Lake completely froze.

[Deweydog]

The models don’t want to cooperate? You mean the weather hasn’t wanted to cooperate so far. Contrary to popular belief, the models do not control the weather.

Prove it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

You do realize it's Jan 1 right? I know you would have said the same in 1989 and other years.

FWIW the CPC still expects it to get cold here. Their updated Jan - Mar forecast is cold. They have us EC for January itself.

I do realize that but the medium and long range models look poor right now.

 

The new CPC 30 day mean 500 MB OBS has ridging returning late January/early February. All the Arctic air heads east again.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/obs500_30_maps.02.gif

[Deweydog]

FWIW, the ECMWF weeklies were actually pretty good today. Especially by late January into early February.

 

20th - 10th could be the next period to watch. Very 1989'ish.

It is indeed the next wishcaster's window. MLK is starting to become too real.

[Deweydog]

In addition to all that, it didn't line up with the calendar. Our 32 degree maximum on the afternoon of 2/17 was wasted with a 37 degree reading at midnight.

Yeah, makes it look that much more bland. I was in Gresham that afternoon and it was cold outside.

[Dave]

It is indeed the next wishcaster's window. MLK is starting to become too real.

Sounds like you are looking to become a member of the pitchfork emporium.

[Deweydog]

Sounds like you are looking to become a member of the pitchfork emporium.

I'll let you in on a little truth from above. No one knows for sure what's gonna happen over the next eight weeks.

 

What we do know is sun angles will be MUCH higher after said eight weeks. Happy New Year!!!

[snow_wizard]

This is one of the more interesting Fraser outflow episodes I can remember.  The cold air is paper thin and yet BLI continues to experience respectably cold outflow winds.  There was a ton of cold air over southern BC for quite a while so it's taking a long time to play out. 

 

For all of the bellyaching about this winter so far it hasn't been that bad for the northern half of WA and some areas south of there also.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is one of the more interesting Fraser outflow episodes I can remember. The cold air is paper thin and yet BLI continues to experience respectably cold outflow winds. There was a ton of cold air over southern BC for quite a while so it's taking a long time to play out.

 

For all of the bellyaching about this winter so far it hasn't been that bad for the northern half of WA and some areas south of there also.

It was extremely unlikely that this winter would match the last one for us so the only bellyaching should be from people who were torturously close to snow like Bryant and myself. And even then the lowland snowfall "drought" won't last forever. There will one day be another Dec 2008 or Jan 1950.

[ShawniganLake]

 

I do realize that but the medium and long range models look poor right now.

 

The new CPC 30 day mean 500 MB OBS has ridging returning late January/early February. All the Arctic air heads east again.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/obs500_30_maps.02.gif

I’m sure you realize a 30 day mean could look like a ridge even if it had 1 week of arctic air surrounded by 3 weeks of +PNA. Not likely but possible

[HighlandExperience]

It was extremely unlikely that this winter would match the last one for us so the only bellyaching should be from people who were torturously close to snow like Bryant and myself. And even then the lowland snowfall "drought" won't last forever. There will one day be another Dec 2008 or Jan 1950.

According to Phil winters will be good again by the year 2020

[Jesse]

Prove it.

I better find some evidence...

[MossMan]

According to Phil winters will be good again by the year 2020

[AbbyJr]

Joe Bastardi this morning said this east coast cold pattern won't last as long as models are showing. In this instance he was more directly referring to the CFS showing east coast cold for 3 months, but the message remains that he sees the PNW getting back to the nina state pattern.

Did he say this on his twitter? Can you post a link to where he said this?

[wx_statman]

Back to back maximums of -20 and -19 in Glasgow, MT the last two days. Only the 10th time they've seen consecutive highs that cold since 1893, and the first since January 10-11, 1997. 

[HighlandExperience]

Did he say this on his twitter? Can you post a link to where he said this?

He did post something similar on twitter

[AbbyJr]

He did post something similar on twitter

Thanks, yeah I found it. 

[Phil]

According to Phil winters will be good again by the year 2020

Lol, I don’t think I said that.

 

Next winter will have a muted/neutral ENSO, though, and I’m thinking 2019/20 is a moderate Niño.

[TT-SEA]

Back to back maximums of -20 and -19 in Glasgow, MT the last two days. Only the 10th time they've seen consecutive highs that cold since 1893, and the first since January 10-11, 1997. 

 

Global warming freaks are going to freak out!   

 

Because the planet is not actually warming even if its entirely natural.  

[Front Ranger]

Back to back maximums of -20 and -19 in Glasgow, MT the last two days. Only the 10th time they've seen consecutive highs that cold since 1893, and the first since January 10-11, 1997. 

 

Wow, didn't realize the air mass was that impressive. Insane winter so far in MT.

[Phil]

Lol, I don’t think I said that.

 

Next winter will have a muted/neutral ENSO, though, and I’m thinking 2019/20 is a moderate Niño.

Oh, and the early 2020s will almost certainly be dominated by moderate/strong Niñas. Classic response at that stage of the geomag cycle.

[Front Ranger]

Oh, and the early 2020s will almost certainly be dominated by moderate/strong Niñas. Classic response at that stage of the geomag cycle.

 

Yeah, I remember noticing that awhile back. Most low points in the solar cycle the past century have featured multiple Ninas.