clintbeed1993 Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 GFS has remained fairly consistent on a major winter storm affecting parts of the Northern and Central Great Plains. It's looking like a Minnesota special at the moment but even Nebraska and parts of Iowa get in on the action. Could this be the first official winter storm of the season? Let's see what the EURO does over the next couple days. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Gfs ensembles look pretty far south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Can you pin this? It'll be more obvious up there. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Gfs ensembles look pretty far southI only seen one map but does the ukie have the snow in the black hills? That’s the way it looks to me. If I had a gun to my head and had to decide which model to trust; I would probably go with the euro IMO. Gonna be a fun next couple of days; hopefully someone scores a big one from this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 That was an interesting GFS run. Gimme 2 in a row though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Euro is making landfall about 100-200 miles South compared to the last run. EVER SO SLIGHTLY weaker but it shouldn't make a difference. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 EVER SO SLIGHTLY weaker but it shouldn't make a difference.I'm wrong. It made a huge difference. ****. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Okay it's looking good @108... Nice defo band on top of us. This might happen. I was a bit scared seeing it almost take a in Colorado, but it revs back up well in KS. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Hr 120 looks interesting with that secondary low Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Verbatim it looks like Omaha/Lincoln get shafted but it's a big step in the right direction. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 997 L in W OH with the secondary low at hr 144 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Hr 120 looks interesting with that secondary lowMany runs of many models have been toying with that idea to varying degrees. But secondary lows are always finicky. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Ok this is odd but the precipitation maps clearly have heavy snow over us and we only manage a few inches still, that just doesn't seem right lol. But it was a huge surge south though which was a trend towards the GFS. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Ok this is odd but the precipitation maps clearly have heavy snow over us and we only manage a few inches still, that just doesn't seem right lol. But it was a huge surge south though which was a trend towards the GFS.That's what I've been saying. First the GFS did this and now Euro is too. Ground temps won't be an issue so idk what's going on. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 It's also showing that second wave Friday. Muy bueno. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Anyone have the snow maps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 That's what I've been saying. First the GFS did this and now Euro is too. Ground temps won't be an issue so idk what's going on.This sounds stupid but what about air temps? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 This sounds stupid but what about air temps?The changeover to snow looks like it'll happen right at 32. Maybe 33 but temps will be dropping quickly. Roads will be a mess regardless. Whether it be snow, flash freezing of previously fallen rain, or a nasty mix of the two. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Anyone have the snow maps?I'd post one of them but I don't have my computer and my phone is screwy with attachments. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Hell looking at temperatures and an extra .30-.35 of QPF on the backside with temperatures in the teens, that would be close to 6 inches here, not sure what the accumulation map is smoking. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 I'd post one of them but I don't have my computer and my phone is screwy with attachments.How’s it look for the secondary system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Accumulation map http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2018010700/mc/ecmwf_tsnow_mc_22.png Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Gfs has some good looking snow maps for the secondary system http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=341713 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 How’s it look for the secondary system?I must say, pretty light if you don't live in NE or SD. Maybe an incher for those involved East of here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Accumulation map http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2018010700/mc/ecmwf_tsnow_mc_22.pngCan’t see the map! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Can’t see the map! Dang it lol. Maybe you need a wxbell account to actually see it? Idk how to get a link for it without it being directly from wxbell. Shelby, NE gets 7" with 10:1 ratios on the map. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Dang it lol. Maybe you need a wxbell account to actually see it? Idk how to get a link for it without it being directly from wxbell.I just save the image and attach it here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Holy ! http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018010706/138/snku_acc.us_c.png 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 7, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Holy s**t! Lol, nice weenie band near Omaha. Too bad it's the 6z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 It’s digging farther south each run 6z digs it down into Texas panhandle Only one ensemble takes it into WI now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Do not wanna be in the bullseye 4-5 days out. Though it looks nice. Still a LONG ways to go. Not harping, just stating history. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 The GFS ensembles also show less precip than the operational. Something to keep an eye on. The op might be overjuiced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 It’s digging farther south each run 6z digs it down into Texas panhandle Only one ensemble takes it into WI nowThough it looks like the Euro has to best snow nw of msp... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Holy s**t! http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018010706/138/snku_acc.us_c.pngWe have a long ways to go, if it was Tuesday/Wednesday it would be exciting. Don't jinx it now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 The GFS ensembles also show less precip than the operational. Something to keep an eye on. The op might be overjuiced.Eh not that much. Maybe up by you http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPCN72NE_6z/f126.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Less phasing would help to the southeast but also probably means less moisture... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Yeah we've been burned an excessive amount of times this far out. There's still plenty of time for Norfolk to get slammed and not us. The low hasn't even made landfall yet. Let's see 12z data. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 NAM ends the run with the SLP down by the OK Panhandle. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 NAM ends the run with the SLP down by the OK Panhandle.That was intriguing to see. Figured it would be much farther north 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 7, 2018 Report Share Posted January 7, 2018 Looks pretty similar to 6z gfs placement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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