Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Lol I'm glad some look forward to my posts. I about myself when i saw the GFS. No victory party yet but It's doing that south route or starting to like I thought it might. Baby steps my friends, baby steps. 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Is it me or does the ICON model look like its full of . And the CMC seems unchanged. That thing sure is stubborn to the very end. Things are getting interesting now. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Looks like the ukie came south a little bit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Is it me or does the ICON model look like its full of s**t. I thought the exact same thing... It has basically nothing everywhere. 24 hours ago it had 1.75 LE here; today it was less than 0.05. I would disregard it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 UK with the SLP directly over Dubuque Iowa at hour 96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 UK with the SLP directly over Dubuque Iowa at hour 96Looks like it’s occluded at that point as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 GEM ensembles have a much bigger spread now A lot of southern solutions https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=96&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 This is why I've always been skeptical of this storm. So many solutions. And so little time left. This is what hell feels like. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 GEM ensembles have a much bigger spread now A lot of southern solutionshttps://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=96&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnmhttps://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=108&Day=1&RunTime=12&Type=pnm This was the 12z run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 This is why I've always been skeptical of this storm. So many solutions. And so little time left. This is what hell feels like.Just like last week we are starting to see signs of a major shift very close to the storm date. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=108&Day=1&RunTime=12&Type=pnm This was the 12z runGEFS mean jumped SE too. Not sure how much spread there is because TT and the ensemble member map isnt available yet. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 GEFS mean jumped SE too. Not sure how much spread there is because TT and the ensemble member map isnt available yet.What this guy said. Just took a peak and jumped southeast. This is a good evening! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 EC holding back the energy until the year 2027... Through Hour 60, no one but SD and extreme NW Nebraska sees anything. At Hour 78, Low just south of the KS / NE border at the longitude of Lincoln. At Hour 84; at the 4 corners of NE, KS, MO, & IA / 998 mb. At Hour 90, well ESE of Des Moines / 998 mb. At Hour 96, where Il, Wi, and IA meet. At Hour 102; jumps into Lake Michigan and it is all over. Heaviest precipitation falls over NE Nebraska, along the border of MN & IA...and into west central Wisconsin. Grand Island, NE sees very heavy snow; Lincoln & Omaha about 60 miles ESE of the heavy snow band. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018011900&fh=96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 ECMWF basically stayed the same. Only makes things more interesting lol. These next couple days are gonna be crazy Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Actually if you look at it it shifted slightly south. But its the battle of the GFS and EURO. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Trend is toward the low occluding and sliding away to the ene. Tonight's models have suppressed the snow back south of Duluth. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Trend is toward the low occluding and sliding away to the ene. Tonight's models have suppressed the snow back south of Duluth. euro_011900.pngYeah I suppose that is a plus of the EURO tonight. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Welp, if there is anything to this south trend I may very well end up in 2-3 inch range while Rochester gets yet another one... Pulling on this thing to stop moving! Obviously a long time to go yet and this just being one run. We shall see if it is a trend or not tomorrow, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 I personally would shack up with Tabitha in SW SD. She is a charm. (but for the record I'am not single). Back to the weather-- a lot to be played out in the next 4 days. The spread of the models at this distance is still great. Sounds great! I have cute shack 200 feet from the main house (almost like a log cabin!). There's no running water; but you don't need anything fancy! I'll charge you $1,000 a month for rent. Late payment will result in a $100 surcharge. No cooking, no hot plates. As an added bonus; I'll let you take care of all the snow shoveling. What do you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Sounds great! I have cute shack 200 feet from the main house (almost like a log cabin!). There's no running water; but you don't need anything fancy! I'll charge you $1,000 a month for rent. Late payment will result in a $100 surcharge. No cooking, no hot plates. As an added bonus; I'll let you take care of all the snow shoveling. What do you think?Well with the winter your having shouldn't be too much to shovel! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Trend is toward the low occluding and sliding away to the ene. Tonight's models have suppressed the snow back south of Duluth. euro_011900.pngWow that’s actually not that bad here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 6z NAM further south as well. G'night everyone. Should be an interesting day. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Euro ensembles over Chicago at 96 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2018011900&fh=96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 6z GFS holding steady from 0z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 MPX just issued a Winter Storm Watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 NWS Hastings Winter Storm Watch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 6z GFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011906/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018011906/090/snku_acc.us_c.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Another notable SE shift in the snow band from the 00z EPS...MKE may be in the game to see some snow. Money/Snowshoe are close to the 6" snow mean. C NE/OMA look good out west while DSM is riding the edge. If this tracks even more SE over the next 2 days, it will be a large share the wealth across our sub forum. We would need it to dig a little more and occlude for those in IA/S WI to get in the game but that's asking for a lot inside 48-72 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 After analyzing the 00z EPS members, it looks like the low reaches its peak strength as it tracks just over KC/St. Jospeh, MO and then it occludes and tracks more E than NE across S IA into the IL/WI border. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 I remember how several people on here thought that this storm would not deliver the goods. On the other hand, I felt otherwise (even though its not a good hit for my back yard I'm not here complaining). It's crazy to think I've had this system on my calendar for 2 months now and here we are. I'm really interested to see how this storm develops and if indeed some NE posters can score a blizzard from it. Meantime, here is the 06z NAM... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018011906/084/snku_acc.us_c.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018011906/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 The German shifts even farther SE and smashes OMA... The track of the 500mb vorticity is interesting... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 MPX with a nice morning disco. They said to keep an eye on the convection down south. If the models are underdoing it, more latent heat release will mean a track further NW. They also state that scenario is unlikely. But something to keep an eye on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Someone is gonna have fun watching that dry slot. Halfway decent chance its me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Someone is gonna have fun watching that dry slot. Halfway decent chance its me... I'll be sure to tell you how it is. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 I'll be sure to tell you how it is. Ditto... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Should be a fun, interesting, rage inducing day watch the models. Do they stay about the same, keep moving Southeast or now move back Northwest? Local weather seems to be going all in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 19, 2018 Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 It's 3 days out and things look good for us. What could go wrong? 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 12 NAM shifting SE and has the SLP tracking over KC... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2018 Central Neb smash job in the works... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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