1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[CentralNebWeather]

thru 102 hours

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011812/conus/ecmwf_acc_snow_conus_102.png

Thank you.  

[Tabitha]

The models are guilty on over 1000 counts of perjury since October; for their lies are pilled up to heaven...

[gosaints]

EURO crawls the system along monday into tuesday

[jaster220]

SNOW DAY 2.png

This is only the last 6 hour run on the 12Z NAM.  That would be quite a storm developing and if you add wind out here on the Plains, well it gets really interesting.  

 

 

NAM at that range was looking robust here last week too. Ended up being over-blown and totals were about 1/2 or 2/3 of what it was flashing.

 

[FarmerRick]

The models are guilty on over 1000 counts of perjury since October; for their lies are pilled up to heaven...

 

 

Amen!!  I'm not believing any of them until saturday night, and they will still be suspect then as well.

[jaster220]

EURO crawls the system along monday into tuesday

 

W UP looks golden either track..snow magnet that region is

[NEJeremy]

if i was a single man and had nothing better to do, I would head to my parents house in southeast SoDak. They look to be pretty golden for this.

[Minny_Weather]

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow...still time for a shift. Ive seen it happen many times. But not a happy camper at all

[Tabitha]

W UP looks golden either track..snow magnet that region is

 

It's not fair that one area gets all the snow.  I am like soo totally Veruca!

[Tabitha]

if i was a single man and had nothing better to do, I would head to my parents house in southeast SoDak. They look to be pretty golden for this.

 

"Responsibility" is the Worst Thing in the Universe...especially self-imposed responsibility; i.e responsibility that is entirely a product of one's own volition.

 

Always remember that when people tell you what's best for You; it's really what's best for Them.

 

Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of The Law!

[Tabitha]

Live life without shame

Live life without guilt

For there is but One Law

Do what thou wilt!

___Tabitha

[Grizzcoat]

if i was a single man and had nothing better to do, I would head to my parents house in southeast SoDak. They look to be pretty golden for this.

I personally would shack up with Tabitha in SW SD. She is a charm. (but for the record I'am not  single). Back to the weather-- a lot to be played out in the next 4 days. The spread of the models at this distance is still great.

[Jaycee]

I personally would shack up with Tabitha in SW SD. She is a charm. (but for the record I'am not single). Back to the weather-- a lot to be played out in the next 4 days. The spread of the models at this distance is still great.

 

I swear Tabitha and Dennis Reynolds are the same. Tell me that this is not spot-on:

 

 

 

Also, I hate to say it, but this storm more than likely won’t make a turn for the better. I sincerely doubt it will be as strong as it is, but Eastern Nebraska isn’t going to do well unless you’re north. Sucks that we can’t even snag a Colorado Low our one go to system.

[gabel23]

I swear Tabitha and Dennis Reynolds are the same. Tell me that this is not spot-on:

 

 

 

Also, I hate to say it, but this storm more than likely won’t make a turn for the better. I sincerely doubt it will be as strong as it is, but Eastern Nebraska isn’t going to do well unless you’re north. Sucks that we can’t even snag a Colorado Low our one go to system

                DUDE I LOVE THAT SHOW!!!!!!! That's so funny! 

 

I"m thinking the samething, I hate to say it but this is screaming Central Neb up into the Dakota's. I'm usually right on the edge with these types of set-ups between getting a lot and not much. I'm not giving up by all means though, the models have been horrible all year so there's still a chance we all can score one. I would be happy with one major Colorado low this year sharing the wealth to all of us....we are all over due. 

[Tom]

12z EPS is a C NE to all of S/C MN special...6-8” mean over MSP and southern burbs...

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings:

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/gid/sitreport/SitReport1.pdf

[CentralNebWeather]

I will feel better (or worse) after seeing tomorrow's runs.  Have gotten my hopes up in the past only to be disappointed.

[Tom]

I will feel better (or worse) after seeing tomorrow's runs. Have gotten my hopes up in the past only to be disappointed.

18z NAM coming in SE and looks good for you so far...

[CentralNebWeather]

18Z NAM on steroids.  I would love it.  Too bad it is 18Z.

[gabel23]

12z EPS is a C NE to all of S/C MN special...6-8” mean over MSP and southern burbs...

Can you post this or is this a map you get in trouble for if you do??? 

 

Meanwhile, I have seen the CPC map change dramatically the past couple of days..........I'm gonna be a close call. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Yes Please.  

[gabel23]

SNOW DAY 100.png

Yes Please. 

I would gladly take that, there would be another 12 hours or so of snow to go! If only the Nam could be good in the long range........

[gabel23]

And then it begins......Tabitha looks to be in a pretty good position 3 days out. 

[Tom]

Can you post this or is this a map you get in trouble for if you do???

 

Meanwhile, I have seen the CPC map change dramatically the past couple of days..........I'm gonna be a close call.

I’m on the road...

[gabel23]

I’m on the road...

No problem, drive safe!! 

 

Hastings just put out a special weather statement for our CWA. Man I hope I can score something bigger than 3" out of this! 

 

...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

 

A storm system will cross the region Sunday into Sunday night...

bringing potential for areas of light freezing drizzle Sunday

morning...and then accumulating snow Sunday afternoon into Sunday

night. Winds will become strong and gusty...resulting in blowing

and drifting snow. Current indications are that the greatest snow

amounts will occur over parts of south central Nebraska.

 

While the snow will end Monday morning...the impacts will linger

through the day as windy conditions will maintain blowing and

drifting snow.

 

Hazardous travel conditions are expected. Be sure to monitor

later statements and forecasts from the National Weather Service

regarding this winter storm.

[gabel23]

Wow, OAX with some strong wording today! 

 

This
places northeast Nebraska in a favored location for heavy snow,
with northwest winds increasing to 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts.
There is some concern that near blizzard conditions could develop
with considerable blowing and drifting snow.

 

There still remains some uncertainty on the
highest snowfall amounts, but operational GFS and ECMWF are honing
in on the area from central NE through northeast NE to southwest
SD to northwest IA for the heaviest amounts, coincident where a
noticeable trowal should exist. Present model trends suggest a
wide swath of 6 to 12 inches will be possible there, with lower
amounts along I80 and south. The storm track is pretty consistent,
with the ECMWF just slightly further south then the GFS.

[NEJeremy]

NAM running quite a bit colder really the entire run for this weekend than what the GFS is showing. Would at least offer a quicker changeover. Also wasn't as big of a dry slot at the end. Of course we're talking about hour 84 on the 18Z NAM

[jcwxguy]

18z icon shifted south some 18z gfs east a little as well

[Minny_Weather]

18z GFS is running South. 

[Minny_Weather]

NAM running quite a bit colder really the entire run for this weekend than what the GFS is showing. Would at least offer a quicker changeover. Also wasn't as big of a dry slot at the end. Of course we're talking about hour 84 on the 18Z NAM

NAM is normally pretty cold biased around here so no big shock there.

[Minny_Weather]

If temps are as warm as GFS is showing for here, we will see ratios well under 10:1 when combined with wind.

[jcwxguy]

ensemble Members 2,6,7,10,11,15,18,19,20,21,24,25,29,30,32,33,35,40,41,42,43,45,48,50 of the euro look like good hits for Eastern Nebraska

[Craig-OmahaWX]

ensemble Members 2,6,7,10,11,15,18,19,20,21,24,25,29,30,32,33,35,40,41,42,43,45,48,50 of the euro look like good hits for Eastern Nebraska

Really? Can you post?

 

GFS came south from 12z also slightly south on the GEFS snow mean. Still expecting a south shift.

[gosaints]

Really? Can you post?

 

GFS came south from 12z also slightly south on the GEFS snow mean. Still expecting a south shift.

Euro ensembles are available on weather.us....

[CentralNebWeather]

18z ICON is quite a hit for Central Nebraska

[CentralNebWeather]

Just got home from coaching 7th grade boys basketball game so am trying to catch up with the weather. Look at the letter that might be out there.

 

 

NWS Hastings.

Snowfall: too early to talk specifics. Tonight`s shift will have

the first crack at amts/ranges. So expect the first details to be

available first this tomorrow AM. We have fairly high confidence

that warning-level snowfall will occur in part of our CWA (that is

6" in 12 hrs). The greatest risk of this occurring will be N of

Hwy 6 in S-cntrl Neb.

 

As is typical...not everyone will see that kind of accum.

 

Wind: we are concerned with some of the potential wind speeds we

are seeing in the guidance. The "B" word is on the table.

Sustained winds of 25-30 mph with gusts of 40-45 are possible.

 

Significant blowing/drifting snow will be an issue and make

measuring extremely difficult.

[Tom]

Just got home from coaching 7th grade boys basketball game so am trying to catch up with the weather. Look at the letter that might be out there.

 

 

NWS Hastings.

Snowfall: too early to talk specifics. Tonight`s shift will have

the first crack at amts/ranges. So expect the first details to be

available first this tomorrow AM. We have fairly high confidence

that warning-level snowfall will occur in part of our CWA (that is

6" in 12 hrs). The greatest risk of this occurring will be N of

Hwy 6 in S-cntrl Neb.

 

As is typical...not everyone will see that kind of accum.

 

Wind: we are concerned with some of the potential wind speeds we

are seeing in the guidance. The "B" word is on the table.

Sustained winds of 25-30 mph with gusts of 40-45 are possible.

 

Significant blowing/drifting snow will be an issue and make

measuring extremely difficult.

I wouldn’t doubt it buddy. This system in the previous two cycles was a beast and I find no reason why it should not deliver this go around. I think your in a very good spot up into S MN/N WI.

[CentralNebWeather]

Central Nebraska hit hard in 0z NAM. This thing could be a beast and NWS Hastings is hinting at the B word.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Lol. Back end light snow for the forever losers in eastern neb on the nam lol