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1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard


Tom

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00z EPS steadfast on a general C NE/MSP/N WI special...I think St Paul is in a good spot along with SE MN to see the jackpot at this range.  Knowing how this system performed in the previous cycle it is hard to argue.  Lack of any truly strong HP will allow this system to cut towards the W GL's.

 

00z GEFS snow mean is a tad south but if the storm does in fact end up being stronger it'll trend NW.

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I’m not sure if it’s possible for SLPs to avoid Iowa. At least I’ll get to see 995 or lower on the barometer with some drizzle.

We will have our chances after this system moves on.  This season we have seen a wide variety of storm tracks and unfortunately as the Jan pullback comes, the track shifts north, but don't be discouraged as I'm pretty confident about seeing 1 or 2 more systems tracking nearby to close out the month.  

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We will have our chances after this system moves on.  This season we have seen a wide variety of storm tracks and unfortunately as the Jan pullback comes, the track shifts north, but don't be discouraged as I'm pretty confident about seeing 1 or 2 more systems tracking nearby to close out the month.  

There should be a system around the 26th that tracks across southern Missouri and central Illinois that should deliver.

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We will have our chances after this system moves on. This season we have seen a wide variety of storm tracks and unfortunately as the Jan pullback comes, the track shifts north, but don't be discouraged as I'm pretty confident about seeing 1 or 2 more systems tracking nearby to close out the month.

 

I think you’re right. The pattern looks pretty active to close out the month. I bet you guys downstream do well in a few weeks.
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I think you’re right. The pattern looks pretty active to close out the month. I bet you guys downstream do well in a few weeks.

I think earlier, than later...but yes, I agree, this is the best pattern of the season that is transpiring this weekend into early Feb to produce favorable storm systems.

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Gotta admit, I'm kinda surprised at my point click forecast. I guess they're saying snow Sunday morning in case it starts early. I'm not sure about their "likely" wording on the rain in the afternoon, though.

 

 

Sunday
A chance of snow before 10am, then a chance of rain and snow between 10am and noon, then rain likely after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.
Sunday Night
Rain likely before 7pm, then rain and snow likely between 7pm and 8pm, then snow likely after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Punting. Although in hindsight we didn't have much of a chance anyway. Not sure if there'll ever be a day when a low tracks from STL to Chicago. Nowadays it always seems to be from Des Moines to La Crosse.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Punting. Although in hindsight we didn't have much of a chance anyway. Not sure if there'll ever be a day when a low tracks from STL to Chicago. Nowadays it always seems to be from Des Moines to La Crosse.

 

Dec '12 bliz

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Well, there is my bullseye run before it goes even NW of me. It is cool to see a storm that appears to be able to gets it act together (as of now). Still time to turd out like has been the trend this season, but provides some hope nonetheless!

Far from over for you.  Is a wet system on the table for you?  Sure but there are ways for you to stay in the game for sure

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Far from over for you.  Is a wet system on the table for you?  Sure but there are ways for you to stay in the game for sure

Perhaps I was a bit vague. I don't have any reason to think this would be over at all. I was just thinking that without the HP up north this could skirt up that way, but at this range I just like to look at large scale things. As of now it doesn't appear that the split flow aloft will be as annoying as it has been this season with weakening and taking storms south.

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