1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[jaster220]

CPC riding the EPS??

 

[Stormgeek]

You’re in the northern part of the TC metro?

Yup, up in Anoka county. 

 

As for the NWS afternoon AFD it looks like they took a large look at things and how they might develop. Some talk of mixing down in the southern parts due to warm air building in a little bit. With the mention of heavy snow they also mentioned an addition of some winds up to 35mph on Sunday night that cold cause bliz conditions if things do develop. A pretty well written forecast while we sit in this "holding pattern" waiting fro things to develop.

[Money]

18z gfs going even more NW this run

[St Paul Storm]

GFS ticking north again thru 96.

[St Paul Storm]

Riding a thin line here but it stays snow. Another pound town run.

[GDR]

Big jump again

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Big jump again

I wouldn't call it big. Its actually a hair east too. But mostly the same as 12z. Still expecting a shift back south in the coming days.

[hlcater]

I wouldn't call it big. Its actually a hair east too. But mostly the same as 12z. Still expecting a shift back south in the coming days.

Why?

[GDR]

Dude your just hoping now

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Because for anyone to call things over right now is not right. I've done it before. And this is going exactly how last week went and past events this winter. Systems 7 days out target Nebraska...then head north then 3-4 days out they begin to move south and east again. It's something I've noticed and we'll see what happens. 

[NEJeremy]

Last week's system is nothing like this system. Last week's system was weakening as it moved east, thus one of the biggest reasons it wasn't cutting so hard. This system is strengthening which naturally leads to it cutting hard, unless of course there was strong HP to the north which there also isn't with this system. According to the 18Z GFS this almost cuts off at 500mb it strengthens so much.

A weaker system would actually be better for us in eastern Nebraska.

[Stormgeek]

I wonder when models will start modifying to a more probable scenario. As it stands right now this is quite the little storm being shown, but I presume at some point things come back to the senses. After tracking models for a while I should know this, but I am not quite sure. Anyone have a certain time period they feel is when storms start to get shown in a more realistic manner?

[St Paul Storm]

I wonder when models will start modifying to a more probable scenario. As it stands right now this is quite the little storm being shown, but I presume at some point things come back to the senses. After tracking models for a while I should know this, but I am not quite sure. Anyone have a certain time period they feel is when storms start to get shown in a more realistic manner?

The energy associated with what will be the Colorado low is expected to be onshore late Friday. So the upper air network should be able to adequately sample this thing for the 18z GFS on Friday. Possibly a bit sooner, possibly a bit later depending on speed. Changes are possible even after these runs, but shouldn’t see huge swings.

 

I just jinxed it.

[NH4NU]

I wonder when models will start modifying to a more probable scenario. As it stands right now this is quite the little storm being shown, but I presume at some point things come back to the senses. After tracking models for a while I should know this, but I am not quite sure. Anyone have a certain time period they feel is when storms start to get shown in a more realistic manner?

 

It would be interesting to see historical model trends and just how much fluctuation, both strength and placement, there is after the storm/energy is completely "on land". 

[gosaints]

The energy associated with what will be the Colorado low is expected to be onshore late Friday. So the upper air network should be able to adequately sample this thing for the 18z GFS on Friday. Possibly a bit sooner, possibly a bit later depending on speed. Changes are possible even after these runs, but shouldn’t see huge swings.

 

I just jinxed it.

12z Fri or 0z sat. 18z doesn't get new upper air data

[St Paul Storm]

12z Fri or 0z sat. 18z doesn't get new upper air data

Good call amigo. I knew that didn’t seem right when I typed it.

[NEJeremy]

It would be interesting to see historical model trends and just how much fluctuation, both strength and placement, there is after the storm/energy is completely "on land". 

That would be statistically interesting to see. If my recollection is correct, it doesn't seem like there is always a lot of adjustment to the models once it is onshore. I know there is usually data that can be collected even before it is onshore once it is close enough, and usually we're close enough time wise to a storm hitting us that the models are only forecasting out 48-72 hours anyway so they have a pretty good idea by then.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The NAVY model as I mentioned earlier keeps going south and east and doesn't even effect Nebraska anymore with any of the snow...interesting.

 

[hlcater]

The NAVY model as I mentioned earlier keeps going south and east and doesn't even effect Nebraska anymore with any of the snow...interesting.

 

You're really desperate whipping out the NAVGEM like that.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

You're really desperate whipping out the NAVGEM like that.

Maybe..maybe not. Honestly it had what happened to last weeks storm days before the rest of the models caught on. I know its the red headed step child of the models but maybe it deserves a little more credit. Just something to keep an eye on.

[Clinton]

Maybe..maybe not. Honestly it had what happened to last weeks storm days before the rest of the models caught on. I know its the red headed step child of the models but maybe it deserves a little more credit. Just something to keep an eye on.

A lot of folks would be caught off guard in my neck of the woods, local mets. aren't even mentioning snow as a possibility.

[Money]

Gfs will be SE this run

[bud2380]

Looks weak so far. 850s going way north towards the twin cities.

[gosaints]

Track quite similar

[bud2380]

Low goes through central Iowa and into SE Minnesota.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

CMC came south. Will post soon once its done loading.

[CentralNebWeather]

Not a good Nebraska run on GFS. Snow heads north.

[bud2380]

The Canadian is in south central Minnesota at hour 114.

[Tom]

GFS trending stronger which isn’t to surprising actually knowing where the LRC’s Long term Long wave Trough had set up. It also is behaving similarily in strength compared to its past 2 cycles.

[St Paul Storm]

Yep.

[gosaints]

CMC came south. Will post soon once its done loading.

Really??

[St Paul Storm]

The low on the GEM may be south before 102 but it really doesn’t have any impact on the precip placement. Overall it’s not south by any means.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I'm not giving up on this yet, still too much time between now and Sunday night. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Canadian placement of the low was good, just didn’t produce a lot of precipitation. Not a great night so far, let’s live to fight another day. Maybe Euro is our friend.

[St Paul Storm]

Up up and away she goes.

[CentralNebWeather]

I’ll take the ICON for $1000 Alex. Not a bad hit for Central Nebraska, however not a lot in Eastern Nebraska. Probably wouldn’t bet the house on it.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

Up up and away she goes.[/quote

 

Depressing for those to the south to look at.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

LOL thats actually pretty funny GIF you made. This thing can only go so far north. At this rate it'll be in Canada tomorrow. 

[Tabitha]

Most of the models look fairly good for here from late Friday evening right through Sunday; since it is now only about 48 hours away; a Complete Miss seems unlikely; but you never know.

 

Some models have printed out 1.75 L.E. around here for the event; so again, it would seem the odds are good.

 

This is tempered by the dreadful performance of the models all winter; so a wait & see approach is the only one to take. 

Time will tell.

 

The DWD ICON has been particularly wet the last few runs; but this evening it introduced rain to start; which is rather unusual in January...but the modified Pacific Air may be not so easy to overcome at just 3500'.  That it is Pacific Air is the only reason the precipitable moisture amounts are so copious.

 

The ratios (for what little actual snow has fallen this winter) have been very good the last 6 weeks; averaging about 23:1; but this would be a lesser ratio with the 2m temp close to 32 F; at least through Saturday.

 

I drove through some of the higher areas along US 385 this afternoon; and even at 5000' I observed bare ground.  However, by the time I reached Deadwood at the far north end of the Hills (which is right next to Lead); it looked like 4 to 5 inches was on the ground.  The 3 inches that fell where I am at on Sunday sublimated into eternity by noon today.

[NEJeremy]

Up up and away she goes.

Yep that’s not coming south, at least not appreciably. I guess I’m looking forward to the 50s on Friday this storm is going to pump up in front of it