1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[St Paul Storm]

Fairly tight cluster there with some nice numbers.

[gosaints]

Fairly tight cluster there with some nice numbers.

Verbatim really good tracks for your backyard

[CentralNebWeather]

You prob have the best chance in NE to score a nice hit from this one. Good luck.

I would say from my area north and west should be in a pretty good spot as of now.  Always fearful of the last minute NW shift.  

[centralweather44]

I hoping for the last min shift southeast like we had last week. I guess time will tell.

[Hawkeye]

12z UK is pretty ugly.... nw track, late-developing.

 

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Well crap lol. Definitely not in stone yet

[CentralNebWeather]

Living in Central Nebraska my entire life, we rarely get decent sized storms in January.  It is usually Feb., March, and April, along with November, that can be historic storms.  My concern is that the NW shift continues and this turns into a Northwest Nebraska - South Dakota storm.  I have seen that happen many times in the past this time of year.  

 

That may have no correlation to this current storm, just looking at it historically for my area.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm not too worried about this storm anyway. What we get will melt the next couple days.

[CentralNebWeather]

I'm not too worried about this storm anyway. What we get will melt the next couple days.

Looks like more chances down the road for sure.

[CentralNebWeather]

Is the Euro running late today?  Doesn't it usually start at 11:45 AM?  Maybe I am off an hour, who knows.

[Jaycee]

Looks like more chances down the road for sure.

Always. Happy for you though man, I know you got shitted harder than us a few times the past few years, so it’s good to hear our bretherin out West is getting in on some action (hopefully)

[St Paul Storm]

Is the Euro running late today?  Doesn't it usually start at 11:45 AM?  Maybe I am off an hour, who knows.

It’s not updating on TT but it is on weather.us.

[CentralNebWeather]

Always. Happy for you though man, I know you got shitted harder than us a few times the past few years, so it’s good to hear our bretherin out West is getting in on some action (hopefully)

Thank you very much.  I am still living off of our Blizzard of 2016 getting almost 18 inches with large snowdrifts.  We actually have not done bad this winter with several small snows, but still waiting for something over 6 inches.

[CentralNebWeather]

It’s not updating on TT but it is on weather.us.

Thank you very much, I am just on my lunch break here and usually check it during that time.

[Minny_Weather]

Holy hell Euro isn't terrible for us. Not gonna live by that run cuz the low is over Falls City, but that was not bad.

[Hawkeye]

The 12z Euro develops and wraps up much earlier than the UK... low track among models is similar, from sw to ne Iowa.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Let the battle begin.  GFS much farther north and west with the heavier band, Euro farther east.  Canadian is north.  Pick the one best for you and pray.  

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Just like every storm this winter i expect a south shift again very soon. Euro wasnt bad but it wasnt good either lol

[St Paul Storm]

The sad part is that even if today was Friday I still wouldn’t believe these maps. Long way to go.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro was also significantly slower. Speed is key to who gets the highest totals, especially down here.

[CentralNebWeather]

For what it's worth, my local weather.com forecast is 3-5" on Sunday and 1-3" on Sunday night with 40 MPH winds Sunday evening.  Haven't seen any other places putting snowfall amounts out yet.  Just interesting to look at these numbers.

[gosaints]

The sad part is that even if today was Friday I still wouldn’t believe these maps. Long way to go.

Right lots of variable to iron out right.  Track where the snow shield lines up relative to track... So on and so forth

[Tom]

12z EPS 2” snow mean shifted SE across NE and covers OMA. C NE up to MSP are winners.

[buzzman289]

Iowa is a Low Magnet, wow

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I am confident that this storm will shift south in the coming days. The NAVY model, which I'm sure most of you write off , has been fairly accurate this winter so far which catching first signs of a shift in all models. Last week when the storm was NW and NAVY model was much further southeast, even missing Omaha! And that is the case this week...it has been consistent with it being way east of every model run even missing Omaha with the brunt of the snow to Iowa;

 

[gosaints]

Pull out all the stops FIM, Navy, what else can we find...

 

 

[gosaints]

JMA

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z EPS 2” snow mean shifted SE across NE and covers OMA. C NE up to MSP are winners.

Could you share that Tom?  Thanks

[gosaints]

Euro control buries Sioux falls thru MSP and the UP

[St Paul Storm]

Great, now I need to watch the NAVY runs as well?? Ugh.

[Tom]

Could you share that Tom? Thanks

On the road today. Later tonight or maybe someone else can in the meantime.

[Tom]

The sad part is that even if today was Friday I still wouldn’t believe these maps. Long way to go.

What is your snow deficit thus far?

[gosaints]

Great, now I need to watch the NAVY runs as well?? Ugh.

I think i would skip them..  Though I might focus on the super swiss

[FarmerRick]

Pull out all the stops FIM, Navy, what else can we find...

 

 

 

 

What does the Farmer's Almanac say?  

[gosaints]

What does the Farmer's Almanac say?  

Look out Bismarck

[St Paul Storm]

What is your snow deficit thus far?

The airport is now down to a deficit of 15”. Although at my place north of St Paul I’m around 11” below normal. About 6” OTG right now.

[Tom]

The airport is now down to a deficit of 15”. Although at my place north of St Paul I’m around 11” below normal. About 6” OTG right now.

Just got that feeling your gonna be making that up quick.

[jaster220]

I think i would skip them..  Though I might focus on the super swiss

 

Yeah, heard those Swiss Miss models are pretty hot!   

[jaster220]

I am confident that this storm will shift south in the coming days. The NAVY model, which I'm sure most of you write off , has been fairly accurate this winter so far which catching first signs of a shift in all models. Last week when the storm was NW and NAVY model was much further southeast, even missing Omaha! And that is the case this week...it has been consistent with it being way east of every model run even missing Omaha with the brunt of the snow to Iowa;

 

 

NAVY says "go bowling SMI"..

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Goodland Kansas-  Confidence remains low with regard to specifics at this

time, however, given that the upper wave in question is located
well offshore in the Pacific and will interact (at least to some
degree) with a powerful /occluded/ extratropical cyclone offshore
the Pacific NW/British Columbia.

 

 NWS North Platte NE-  Big push begins

Sunday afternoon as the upper system moves into western Kansas.
Convection over the southern plains into the Missouri river valley
may rob us of moisture. Classic system with most of our weather
coming from deformation zone. Breezy through the day on Sunday and
winds may have to be bumped up further.