Stormgeek Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Euro/NAM vs GFS...I think the odds stack in your favor for getting a decent snowstorm...It's just hard to buy into anything with such a nasty gradient. GFS hangs me out to dry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Dread the ping. I’d rather swing and miss than ping.Ehhh.. If I ping early tomorrow I am gonna chase... Euro shows widespread 1.25-1.50 qpf can't as for more than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 That was about a 35 mi bump NW with the snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Forecast wind gusts from the 12Z Euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Ehhh.. If I ping early tomorrow I am gonna chase...Mankato looks like a jack zone. Grab some hot coffee early and take a drive. Might be insane down there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 This is going to come down to like 10-15 miles. So exciting and stressful LOL. Here storm, storm, storm.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 I wonder what OAX will do for watches/warnings this afternoon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Mankato looks like a jack zone. Grab some hot coffee early and take a drive. Might be insane down there.Owatonna was my first thought Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Owatonna was my first thoughtYeah closer for you. Closer to a main highway as well in case it gets out of control. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 I wonder what OAX will do for watches/warnings this afternoon?I'd put areas along I-80 in an advisory if I were them. I think all of the current advisory counties besides Seward need to be upgraded to a Blizzard Warning. They can re-assess during tomorrow's night shift. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 where are you getting hrrr ? TT one doesn't go past 18hrsI'm talking about the SLP, which impacts the precip shield and dry slot. I was looking out to 18. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Currently 33 with light rain/drizzle/fog with visibility around 1 mile and winds gusting to 30 mph. Has the feel of a storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Holding steady at 39.7* here with fog. I'd estimate visibility at about 0.5 miles where I am. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Yeah closer for you. Closer to a main highway as well in case it gets out of control.Plus I have family there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 39.6* and 0.02" drizzle so far imby Omaha. Afternoon models will be interesting... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Euro/NAM vs GFS...I think the odds stack in your favor for getting a decent snowstorm...The 12z GFS looks a lot like the Euro imo don't you think Tom?? I'm telling you what, you guys in Lincoln and Omaha aren't gonna do that bad out of this!!!! Awesome how things are changing and we are within 12 hours of the storm. Central Neb, same conditions here. Foggy and misty outside and the feeling of impending storm is driving up the suspension in my house hold!! My daugthers and I are gonna have a blast in the snow tomorrow!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 I have a feeling the amounts on the NAM and Euro espeically aren't going to be realized on the south end of things. I am going to guess the dry slot is being under modeled(It usually is). This is why I believe the warnings are good where they are, with maybe another tier of advisories on the south end, nothing more. The heaviest axis of snow is probsblyq going to verify a tad narrower because of this. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Nowcast time as far NE goes in terms of slp position Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 I am trying Not to get too caught up in specific snow amounts on any model. If a wrap around band sets up over your area for awhile with 50 mph plus winds it will be like Christmas. These bands will be fun to track but will be more nowcasting imo. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 The 12z GFS looks a lot like the Euro imo don't you think Tom?? I'm telling you what, you guys in Lincoln and Omaha aren't gonna do that bad out of this!!!! Awesome how things are changing and we are within 12 hours of the storm. Central Neb, same conditions here. Foggy and misty outside and the feeling of impending storm is driving up the suspension in my house hold!! My daugthers and I are gonna have a blast in the snow tomorrow!!! Out by you, yes they are similar...I was referring to the MSP area...the battle there is going to be interesting how it plays out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Out by you, yes they are similar...I was referring to the MSP area...the battle there is going to be interesting how it plays out.The fact that we have another full suite of models tonight gives them a chance to come in line over msp.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 12:30 update. MPX currently going with a blend of the GFS and NSSL WRF for its forecast. Qpf of 0.5” at MSP. Take it for what it’s worth. Changes still coming. Meanwhile we’ve hit 40 for a third straight day. Less than 1” OTG now. Bare ground gonna be ugly whoever doesn’t get any snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 You can tell by local Met social media postings here in ENeb that these latest shifts have created a bit of concern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 12:30 update. MPX currently going with a blend of the GFS and NSSL WRF for its forecast. Qpf of 0.5” at MSP. Take it for what it’s worth. Changes still coming. Meanwhile we’ve hit 40 for a third straight day. Less than 1” OTG now. Bare ground gonna be ugly whoever doesn’t get any snow.Nssl wrf.. Wtf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 You can tell by local Met social media postings here in ENeb that these latest shifts have created a bit of concern.They should be because everyone I heard talk basically mentioned Lincoln and Omaha wouldn't get anything. I'm excited for this afternoon's disco and updated snow graphics. I expect the advisories and warnings to be expanded to the east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 The grocery store I live by is packed now. I guess word got out. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Nssl wrf.. WtfNational severe storms laboratory suite of models. I had no idea. I know a few of them are on TT, but I had to look this up myself to figure out what the heck NSSL is. I glance at those models from time to time, and they’re rarely right. MSP using any model they can for assistance. Except the NAVY of course. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Eyes are glued to HRRR. That's what gave me rekindled hope with its last run. Looking identical so far. Dry slot is there but it'd be rain during the shafted period if precip were to fall. This thing slowing down allows the dry slot to be here when it'd be rain/ZR falling, not snow. That's a good thing. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Checked out the SREF plumes at 15z for fun. One big dog over 20”, 5 big dogs over 15” and a mean now over 10.5”. Only 3 ensembles under 5”. Wild and whacky mayhem. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Has anybody compared the thermal profiles? I’m curious which model is doing the best right now in terms of temps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Another thing to watch in the near future is if any convection cause the low to jump down south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Has anybody compared the thermal profiles? I’m curious which model is doing the best right now in terms of tempsHRRR's right on the money for here. NAM's a few degrees too cold unsurprisingly. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Using the HRRR at hr 17/18 is like using the NAM at hr 84 Usually not right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 This truly is a serious question and not meant to stir the pot, but I recall many many storms ago that severe storms in the south robbed some of our systems moisture. Don’t recall reasoning, but is that something we should monitor or be concerned of as well? Also want to note that 10/11 in LNK has increased their snowfall forecast to 2-4” for both LNK and OMA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 This truly is a serious question and not meant to stir the pot, but I recall many many storms ago that severe storms in the south robbed some of our systems moisture. Don’t recall reasoning, but is that something we should monitor or be concerned of as well? Also want to note that 10/11 in LNK has increased their snowfall forecast to 2-4” for both LNK and OMA.That won't be an issue with this one. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 This truly is a serious question and not meant to stir the pot, but I recall many many storms ago that severe storms in the south robbed some of our systems moisture. Don’t recall reasoning, but is that something we should monitor or be concerned of as well? Also want to note that 10/11 in LNK has increased their snowfall forecast to 2-4” for both LNK and OMA.Yes, but only if there is a weak SLP that doesn't have the strength to pull and wrap the moisture around into the cold sector. In this instance, you do not need to worry. This is going to be a mature mid latitude cyclone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Our school district just announced it is closed for tomorrow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Using the HRRR at hr 17/18 is like using the NAM at hr 84 Usually not rightMost models here are showing the same jog South. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Good to know, thanks!! Yes, but only if there is a weak SLP that doesn't have the strength to pull and wrap the moisture around into the cold sector. In this instance, you do not need to worry. This is going to be a mature mid latitude cyclone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 21, 2018 Report Share Posted January 21, 2018 Our superintendent has a sense of humor. On his all call that just came through he said” no school on Monday, stay safe, and make sure your Netflix subscription has been paid” 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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