February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

How much is it showing?

[Hawkeye]

How much is it showing?

 

For what town?

[Money]

For what town?

OSH

[Hawkeye]

OSH

 

Euro has about 0.50" for Oshkosh, 0.83" for Green Bay.

[Money]

Euro has about 0.50" for Oshkosh, 0.83" for Green Bay.

Not bad

 

Thanks.

 

I wonder if this thing could shift south once snowcover occurs. Might not affect that much but should be a solid snowcover across IA/IL/WI by next week

[Hawkeye]

A day or two ago, the Euro had one focused band of heaviest snow from southern Iowa eastward along the I-80 corridor through MI/OH.  Much of it has now split north and south.  It's hard to fault Nebraskans for complaining about this.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

A day or two ago, the Euro had one focused band of heaviest snow from southern Iowa eastward along the I-80 corridor through MI/OH. Much of it has now split north and south. It's hard to fault Nebraskans for complaining about this.

 

euro_12zFeb03.png

Happens so often it is almost comical. Spring can arrive at anytime for most Nebraskans imo.

[NEJeremy]

52 wonderful degrees. Can it just stay like this for the rest of February? Better than 20 degrees and brown ground.

[Niko]

Its been snowing here on and off all day. Lots of slicks spots. Heavier snow develops later tanite.

[Niko]

52 wonderful degrees. Can it just stay like this for the rest of February? Better than 20 degrees and brown ground.

We might be in for a warm-up late February briefly, then, it turns colder in March.

[hlcater]

18z GFS keeps the significant storm next weekend. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020318/156/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[Money]

18z GFS keeps the significant storm next weekend. 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018020318/156/snku_024h.us_mw.png

I know snowcover doesn’t matter much but a lot of areas should have 5+ or so by middle of the week. Wouldn’t be surprised if things trended farther south

[hlcater]

I know snowcover doesn’t matter much but a lot of areas should have 5+ or so by middle of the week. Wouldn’t be surprised if things trended farther south

I was thinking that, but the fact that that's the only thing to keep the bczone south in that time frame would encourage a MN/WI special. However, if cold air is more potent than expected I could see this sliding south some. There's decent arguments for a shift either direction. Time will tell.

[Money]

I was thinking that, but the fact that that's the only thing to keep the bczone south in that time frame would encourage a MN/WI special. However, if cold air is more potent than expected I could see this sliding south some. There's decent arguments for a shift either direction. Time will tell.

Yeah that’s what I was thinking. Deeper snowcover which means it will be colder than models think right now and might push the bzone south some.

 

Doesn’t look like it’s a super strong system

[Niko]

Feels nice outside. Temp @ 30F and a little breezy. Snow on the way after midnight w WWA posted for my area.

[Money]

Gfs coming in farther south and weaker with the Sat system

[Money]

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018020400&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=147

[Money]

GEM also shifted south from 12z but more north than gfs

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=asnow24&runtime=2018020400&fh=144

[jaster220]

Gfs coming in farther south and weaker with the Sat system

Yep, south and weak is my call, and matches trends at mid-range. Then, when it's decided who to hit, the last minute ramp-up happens in some random location that wasn't expecting it at d3+

[Hawkeye]

Southern Wisconsin is getting some solid snow tonight, and tonight's models are hitting the same area pretty hard late in the week.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

We just had a surprise heavy snow band move through. Probably close to a half inch here. Lots of wind too, really blowing it around. A nice surprise i'll say since I wasn't expecting anything today. Its the little things that count sometimes!

[Bryan1117]

52 wonderful degrees. Can it just stay like this for the rest of February? Better than 20 degrees and brown ground.

I have said it once and will say it again, I am waving the white flag to winter here... I am done with it.

 

Chalk up 3 lame winter seasons in a row here, just waiting on the torch here to get us back to warmer weather.

 

I was surprised to wake up this morning to a dusting of snow on the ground though, like Craig said if you love snow around here you have to take a few pennies when you don’t have much.

[westMJim]

At this time getting light snow and blowing snow here with a temperature of 21° had 4” of new snow and a total of 6.5” on the ground.

[westMJim]

Climatology for today February 4^th    At Grand Rapids, MI

 

The average H/L is 31/18

The record high is 53° in 1962 the coldest maximum is 0° set in 1918

The record low is -17° set in 1996 the warmest minimum is 37° set in 1991

The record snow fall is 10.0” in 1900

The most snow on the ground is 20” in 1959

Last year the H/L was 30/4 a trace of snow was reported and 3” was reported on the ground.

[Tom]

Interesting trends on the models with the Tue/Wed system as there may be better upstream ridging allowing the storm to slow a bit and phase with the northern branch.  For instance, the 12z NAM is now expanding the precip shield much farther NW and is starting to latch onto an idea of widespread 1-4"???  I'm not putting much stock into the NAM, but the Euro is showing this possibility also.

 

Notice the last 4 runs showing better ridging upstream....

[Niko]

Snow currently w couple of inches on the ground and temp @ 30F.

[Hawkeye]

Now, the late week system is trending back south on some models.  The 06z GFS has the snow down as far as CR and the ICON shows a huge change, bringing the whole thing down into Iowa.

[Tom]

12z GFS trending the same way for the mid week system and advertising a tad better phasing along with moisture transport northward instead of a sheared out suppressed wave.

[Tom]

Winter has made it back to Chicago...you have been missed...#Ol'ManWinter

 

Meantime, 12z GFS keeping the baroclinic zone farther south compared to previous runs.  I expect to see various solutions going forward as these type of set ups are impossible to nail down this far out.

[Money]

Gem has the system come out in one piece and is stronger/north

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018020412&fh=126

 

Seems like gfs has several waves

[Niko]

February is looking like a cold, snowy month for some.

[Money]

Actually looks like gfs is trying to form a strong LP down in OK

[Hawkeye]

Boy, big changes going on with the late-week system.

[Money]

Boy, big changes going on with the late-week system.

That’s a spread the wealth system lol

[Tom]

This thing has YUGEEE potential....

[Money]

Gfs

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018020412&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=171

[Money]

This thing has YUGEEE potential....

That bzone is nice

[Tom]

The energy that cuts off in the SW prevented this system from phasing into a big storm...

 

[Tom]

After the Fri/Sat weekend system, there is another brewing on my calendar for the 13th/14th period which lines up with the Dec 28th/29th multiple wave system that sparked WSW's in E IA/W IL.  Pattern is loaded with opp's going forward.  Boy, is this going to be a special Feb?

[Money]

Ukie looks like the gfs sort of

 

HR 120

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120

 

1003 L down in CO/OK