Front Ranger Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 A nice thing to see is models showing both cold and snow. All too often we see the models show one and not the other. That doesn't seem to be the case this time... At least at this point. I'm always suspicious when the models show snow without any cold. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 12, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Still nothing about a big a** Arctic Outbreak in EITHER the KPDX or the KSEA discussions. What a joke!!! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 The control model on the 18z GEFS is pretty wild. 850s around -15 for a sustained period of time. The mean is 7C below normal with the big cold wave now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 This the catalyst we have needed all winter to really make things happen. I am pumped more than ever!! I'm glad you are on board. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Move.I have epilepsy and this is where my caretaker lives. I'm stuck. I realize it's a shi++y location but even by these lousy standards it's still surprising to me how less common Arctic events impact this region even as opposed to the 90s. I feel like it's way less frequent. It is at least nice to see the potential for several nights of freezing temps that aren't under a fake cold though. It will be welcome since the insects are already bad. Flies and ants getting in the house like crazy. A good freeze could also kill some of those over-wintering wasp/hornet queens too. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 The NWS has whittled the number of 50+ days this week to 2 now. I knew they were way too warm for most days. They also have snow showers for Sunday. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 The NWS has whittled the number of 50+ days this week to 2 now. I knew they were way too warm for most days. They also have snow showers for Sunday.You have access to the full detail of the best weather model in the world... make your own forecast! I think this concern stems from wanting the public to panic. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 If this one fades away this place will be like Pompeii buried under 50 feet of murky disappointment. A truly cruel joke to be sure. Showing so much promise at the very end of our winter only to crush us once again. I refuse to get hopeful. We are 6 days from this happening. SSW or not, this thing will likely end up a burp in a hurricane of hope. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 You have access to the full detail of the best weather model in the world... make your own forecast! I think this concern stems from wanting the public to panic. Steve Pool will be on it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 The NWS has whittled the number of 50+ days this week to 2 now. I knew they were way too warm for most days. They also have snow showers for Sunday.They've been used to the broken record of the models taking it away as we appoach the dates in question. Doesn't appear that will happen this time at least PDX north. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 If this one fades away this place will be like Pompeii buried under 50 feet of murky disappointment. A truly cruel joke to be sure. Showing so much promise at the very end of our winter only to crush us once again. I refuse to get hopeful. We are 6 days from this happening. SSW or not, this thing will likely end up a burp in a hurricane of hope. It would be the biggest model bust since Jan 2005 if it fails. EVERYTHING including the CFS is on board. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 If this one fades away this place will be like Pompeii buried under 50 feet of murky disappointment. A truly cruel joke to be sure. Showing so much promise at the very end of our winter only to crush us once again. I refuse to get hopeful. We are 6 days from this happening. SSW or not, this thing will likely end up a burp in a hurricane of hope. I cannot envision a way for this to totally fall apart... everything is so rock solid and now in the mid range. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 I cannot envision a way for this to totally fall apart... everything is so rock solid and now in the mid range. Besides that the way it's acting now kind of suggests better things to come. Tonight will be our second push of Canadian air in just a couple days time. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 I cannot envision a way for this to totally fall apart... everything is so rock solid and now in the mid range.i never thought I’d see you beating the drumb this far out from an event. Keep it going Tim. I hope you and Jim are both right this time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 When you're riding with that one friend who doesn't want Cold and SNOW!!!! and you've heard enough of it! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 i never thought I’d see you beating the drumb this far out from an event. Keep it going Tim. I hope you and Jim are both right this time! Its not that far out now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Its not that far out now.It is this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 It is this winter. This is clearly different. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 The forum that is! Loving the north wind as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 I don’t think the TV weather people trust the models much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 I don’t think the TV weather people trust the models much. That is actually quite close to the ECMWF... little warm for next Saturday (49 vs 44). Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 The 18z GFS looks fantastic! Each GFS run is getting better and better now. Let's continue this trend into tonight with all the 00z runs. We are almost there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 The 18z GFS looks fantastic! Each GFS run is getting better and better now. Let's continue this trend into tonight with all the 00z runs. We are almost there!Hope the timing moves up too 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 I don’t think the TV weather people trust the models much. The low of 40 on Tuesday is just plain laughable. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 The low of 40 on Tuesday is just plain laughable. Actually... the ECMWF shows some good southerly flow on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and a low in the upper 30s. There could easily be a low of 40. Certainly not laughable. I am fairly certain those forecasts read from left to right chronologically (to keep it simple for the average folks) which means it shows 49 on Tuesday and 40 that night. That is not technically correct of course because the official low on Tuesday will be much lower than 40 but that is represented on the Monday night low. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 2/11/18 6:16 PM IR Loop update I'm not saying that it's going to happen, but it sure looks like we may be going straight into a cold, arctic pattern sooner than modeled. IR Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+12 IR 12hr Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+25 IR Wide View Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12 IR 12hr Wide View Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+25 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather girl Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 What is the main thing you guys are watching for at this point? Just wanting to make sure all the models are in agreement? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 I don’t think the TV weather people trust the models much.Toasty. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Portland NWS highs of 50-55 next Sunday may be a little warm though... Going for a low of 22 at EUG tomorrow night and 25 at SLE. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 2/11/18 6:16 PM IR Loop updateI'm not saying that it's going to happen, but it sure looks like we may be going straight into a cold, arctic pattern sooner than modeled. IR Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+12IR 12hr Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+25IR Wide View Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+12IR 12hr Wide View Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_common+25 A lot of cold air up there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Forecasting snow in the Pac NW is not easy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dM0JynoflzoLooking at that satellite pic I would say it was a repeat of last year when everything trended south leaving us up here dry and cold. Oh and I would love snow tornado’s!! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 00Z NAM looks a tad warmer, dryer than the 18Z. Not too bad overall: looks like pretty widespread area of snow over the Vancouver area through north of Seattle until around 12Z Wednesday. Temperatures are looking very marginal, so will see how widespread this event is. Hoping for lots but expecting little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 00Z NAM looks a tad warmer, dryer than the 18Z. Not too bad overall: looks like pretty widespread area of snow over the Vancouver area through north of Seattle until around 12Z Wednesday. Temperatures are looking very marginal, so will see how widespread this event is. Hoping for lots but expecting little.Snow will fall before 12z wed? That is before 9 am wed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Forecasting snow in the Pac NW is not easy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dM0Jynoflzo That is actually hilarious. You have to watch it all the way though. This reminds me of some people on here. Day 4 is so cold it can't snow. So cold you will be begging for snow but no matter how much you beg it it won't come. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Snow will fall before 12z wed? That is before 9 am wed?Snow will begin slightly before 3 AM on Wednesday in higher areas of the county. Surface temperatures are looking to be in the mid to upper 30s with 850s around -3C. Snow levels do look to be lowering as cooler air floods behind the system and a few flurries continue to fall. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=nwus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018021200&fh=54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Looks more green than blue in king county missing most central cities. May be more of a snohomish/ northern event? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 00z GFS Hmmm, HR 36 offshore ridge and Aleutian ridge a bit stronger, merging. Also, heights over BC suppressing southward bit quicker and that trend has continued past 6 runs now. Animated GIF shows this nicely. https://imgur.com/vmP7m0P 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 00z GFS Hmmm, HR 36 offshore ridge and Aleutian ridge a bit stronger, merging. Also, heights over BC suppressing southward bit quicker and that trend has continued past 6 runs now. Animated GIF shows this nicely. https://imgur.com/vmP7m0P This gives a bit more weight to my suggestion that we may see the colder, arctic pattern arrive sooner than modeled right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 That was my first attempt to post an image. Hope I read it right 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 12, 2018 Report Share Posted February 12, 2018 Maybe the initial trough will be a bit colder before the real goodies arrive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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