February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

How'd your area do in Feb 2011?

How did Victoria do?

It was pretty dry here by our standards. Never more than 3 or 4” on the ground.

[TT-SEA]

Wow major snow shadow in central king county

 

No... system slides down the coast and inland over OR.   See February 2014 for an example. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What a way to finish off a great day! The King EURO delivered its best run to date. The trend is our friend right now. Let's continue this trend into tomorrow with the 6z GFS in a few hours and all the model runs in the morning. Everything is starting to come together now. Let's go!!!

[HighlandExperience]

No... system slides down the coast and inland over OR. See February 2014 for an example.

Feb 2014 was painful for Puget Sound

[TT-SEA]

Feb 2014 was painful for Puget Sound

 

I remember the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl and lots of sunshine.    Far from painful. 

[ShawniganLake]

Outflow is really whipping tonight, as mentioned earlier.

 

Saturna Island NE 39 gusting 47

Abbotsford NE 30 gusting 46 with a dew point of 8F.

[ShawniganLake]

Currently 28F here. Normally not worth mentioning but that’s the lowest it’s been in 2018

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I missed this little snowy gem late on day 9 into day 10... that is Tuesday night into Wednesday.  

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Mossman always does well with C-zone snow. I’m going to be sad if we get dry shafted.

 

The models almost always show no snow with these things.  Looking at the 500mb setup I would say snow is highly likely for many.

[snow_wizard]

Outflow is really whipping tonight, as mentioned earlier.

 

Saturna Island NE 39 gusting 47

Abbotsford NE 30 gusting 46 with a dew point of 8F.

 

Really impressive for just an appetizer.  

[snow_wizard]

Feb 2014 was painful for Puget Sound

 

We did at least get something before the cold ended, but ya....

[snow_wizard]

How'd your area do in Feb 2011?

 

We had widespread snowfall around here with the 2011 event.

[snow_wizard]

People need to remember not to get hung up on snowfall forecasts this far from the event.  Normally the models even 12 hours out don't get it right when Arctic air is involved.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS is good for folks up north. Chilly down here too but slightly above freezing.

 

Still hanging on at 33. Haven't had a freeze since Dec.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

NWS PDX long term:

 

 

Meanwhile, model consensus now shows highly amplified ridging near 140W being broken down as a fairly strong W Pac jet streak pushes into the Gulf of Alaska Thu/early Fri. This will cause a vigorous shortwave to develop in the Gulf of Alaska later this week, then push down the Canadian coastline, eventually carving out a broad upper trough over B.C. and into the Pac NW during the weekend. Main model disagreement now centers on just how broad this upper trough will be, but the GFS finally seems to be catching up with the ECMWF idea of a deep trough over the Pac NW next weekend. As a result, after some rain and mountain snow Fri night/Sat, temps and snow levels could plummet as our first modified arctic air mass in a while settles into the region. Will trend temps and snow levels downward accordingly, though there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to how this pattern will play out. Weagle

 

Chips being laid on the table.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z keeps thickness below 528 from hour 144 through the end of the run. Never gets super cold, but remarkably sustained. Fairly good ensemble agreement for so far out too. 

 

A chilly night with a current temp right now of 28.

[Tyler Mode]

25 degrees here in Battle Ground.  Sadly the coldest in 2018, and my coldest temp since December 21st.

[Blizzard777]

Mark Nelsen is go flight

[Timmy]

GFS is good for folks up north. Chilly down here too but slightly above freezing.

 

Still hanging on at 33. Haven't had a freeze since Dec.

dude, shut up

[High Desert Mat!]

dude, shut up

+1

[TT-SEA]

34 at SEA... still waiting for a freeze there since January 1.    North winds through the Sound keeping temps up there... its 36 at UW in Seattle.

 

29 and clear here.   This is clearly a situation where we run colder since there is no easterly flow and we are protected from northerly flow.  

[MossMan]

How'd your area do in Feb 2011?

18” for me.

[MossMan]

26 frosty degrees currently.

[ShawniganLake]

24F here as we are out of the wind. Most outflow areas are above freezing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Coldest temp of 2018 this morning at 27.

[TT-SEA]

I need some help with my memory... I remember a snow event around March 18-20 here but cannot remember the year.   I know we got 4-5 inches of snow right before we left to go skiing in Idaho.   I remember the morning that we left was clear and cold and it was a winter wonderland but when we came back 4 days later it was all gone.   I thought it was 2014 but that appears to be wrong.      Maybe it was 2015 but I thought that was a warm spring.    Could it have been 2013?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I need some help with my memory... I remember a snow event around March 18-20 here but cannot remember the year.   I know we got 4-5 inches of snow right before we left to go skiing in Idaho.   I remember the morning that we left was clear and cold and it was a winter wonderland but when we came back 4 days later it was all gone.   I thought it was 2014 but that appears to be wrong.      Maybe it was 2015 but I thought that was a warm spring.    Could it have been 2013?

12 or 13.

[TT-SEA]

Can we still access the forum history from 2005-2013 anywhere?   I don't see the link now.  

[Timmy]

I need some help with my memory... I remember a snow event around March 18-20 here but cannot remember the year. I know we got 4-5 inches of snow right before we left to go skiing in Idaho. I remember the morning that we left was clear and cold and it was a winter wonderland but when we came back 4 days later it was all gone. I thought it was 2014 but that appears to be wrong. Maybe it was 2015 but I thought that was a warm spring. Could it have been 2013?

Late March 2011 was wild here above 1500’

[TT-SEA]

12 or 13.

 

I think it was 2013.   I see that we were in Idaho around the 3rd week of March that year.   It must have been the morning of 3/22/2013 that was a winter wonderland here.    I remember it was in the mid-20s with snow covered roads even.   It sure does not show up in the SEA records.  

[Esquimalt]

According to weather records, it was rather warm and dry in March 18-20, 2013 (that was here).  However, 2012 recorded traces of snow on the 19, 20th and 21st.  Perhaps 2012 then?  

 

On another note, we got down to a low of 34 here.  Outflow was whipping and we are relatively unsheltered, hence the high reading.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 6z GFS looked awesome. Onto the 12z model runs now.

[Canadian guy]

Can we still access the forum history from 2005-2013 anywhere?   I don't see the link now.  

 

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/forum/41-western-us-wx-discussion/

[TT-SEA]

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/forum/41-western-us-wx-discussion/

 

Thank you!   

 

I was able to confirm that it was 3/22/2013.    Even found a picture that I took then...

 

http://oi47.tinypic.com/ege73n.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 4 Offshore ridge/Aleutian ridge merge taking place a bit sooner. This trend has continued for 6 consecutive runs

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021212/096/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GEM is not running yet on neither Pivotal or Tidbits. Unsure why.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GEM is not running yet on neither Pivotal or Tidbits. Unsure why.

Too much cold air

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 thickness and 850s a bit colder into central/southeastern BC

[Timmy]

12z gfs has less over water tractors next weekend looks like