February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 GEFS

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2018021212/240/500h_anom.na.png

 

Day 12

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2018021212/288/500h_anom.na.png

[ShawniganLake]

Gonna be a long week. Couple dozen more GFS runs to go.

[Winterdog]

Had a low of 23F this morning.  Actually my low was looking at the GFS model progressions.   

[ShawniganLake]

The 6z and 12Z ensemble means both bottom out at -9.0C for next Monday at Vancouver BC.

[TT-SEA]

Going into a meeting at 10 a.m.

 

Not sure if I will be able to post ECMWF surface maps as they come out today... might be a little late.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ensemble is okay. Definitelty losing some potential here. A good chance most folks do not see snow.

[ShawniganLake]

The ensemble is okay. Definitelty losing some potential here. A good chance most folks do not see snow.

But the celebration already took place last night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Early look at the GEM says things still on track, though I haven't been able to view the full run.

[van city]

The ensemble is okay. Definitelty losing some potential here. A good chance most folks do not see snow.

You should go for a walk and decompress.

[HighlandExperience]

Early look at the GEM says things still on track, though I haven't been able to view the full run.

I’m worried for your mental health

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unfortunately the GEM follows the GFS and in fact is worse. Maybe a 2-3 day cold transitory trough. Down from about 10 days....We've seen this play out before...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

How did Victoria do?

It was pretty dry here by our standards. Never more than 3 or 4” on the ground.

 

Victoria proper had around a foot of snow. There were some heavy convective snow showers when the flow turned NE.

[Front Ranger]

One thing appears clear... the blocking in Alaska is not going anywhere.    The devil is in the details as always.

 

That's been a major theme this winter.

[Front Ranger]

Unfortunately the GEM follows the GFS and in fact is worse. Maybe a 2-3 day cold transitory trough. Down from about 10 days....We've seen this play out before...

 

The fact that 10 day cold shots are quite a bit more rare than ones lasting several days is probably relevant...

[ShawniganLake]

Victoria proper had around a foot of snow. There were some heavy convective snow showers when the flow turned NE.

I was wondering if that was the event I remembered. Lots of snow in the city but considerably less as you went north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The fact that 10 day cold shots are quite a bit more rare than ones lasting several days is probably relevant...

It is, though Jesse was offended a few weeks ago when I mentioned that we rarely have periods of below normal weather lasting over a week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

33 for a low at PDX this morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 4

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021212/096/500h_anom.na.png

[Front Ranger]

Lost in all the doom and gloom is that the GEM looked better for snow in western WA than any previous run. Also looked as promising as ever for northern folks with the mid week system.

 

 

[FroYoBro]

Lost in all the doom and gloom is that the GEM looked better for snow in western WA than any previous run. Also looked as promising as ever for northern folks with the mid week system.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_26.png

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27.png

Looks like BSF. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I was wondering if that was the event I remembered. Lots of snow in the city but considerably less as you went north.

 

Yep, I was up in Nanoose for the start of that event, I missed the snow falling in Victoria but Nanoose had somewhere around 4~6". When I drove back to Victoria there was almost no snow in Nanaimo or anywhere south until I got to the Malahat. Here's how it looked in Nanoose:

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021212/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Front Ranger]

Compared to yesterday's 12z, the Euro has the trough dropping down further south, but also just a bit east. Very similar to today's GEM.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Compared to yesterday's 12z, the Euro has the trough dropping down further south, but also just a bit east. Very similar to today's GEM.

 

The eastward trend in the 12z models is the overriding theme.

[Front Ranger]

The eastward trend in the 12z models is the overriding theme.

It's a pretty small shift. Still looking like widespread lowland snow chances.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021212/144/500h_anom.na.png

[van city]

Day 6

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021212/144/500h_anom.na.png

[ShawniganLake]

Gem ensemble is colder than the 0z for next week. Bottoms out at -9c at YVR. 0z was only -7.4C. It remains slightly colder thru next Friday.

[van city]

Gem ensemble is colder than the 0z for next week. Bottoms out at -9c at YVR. 0z was only -7.4C. It remains slightly colder thru next Friday.

Andrew!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Course then we have the 12z EURO!

[Winterdog]

The Euro looks definitely colder than yesterday’s 12z and about the same as last nights. I don’t see much of an eastward shift but the ridge isn’t quite as amplified

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021212/168/500h_anom.na.png

[VancouverIslandSouth]

ecmwf_T850_nwus_7.png

 

Those little surface lows can bring some big snowfalls. Would love to see that lock in.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not possible. All 12z runs trended east and if you can't see that then I don't know what to tell you.

That’s the spirit!

[Winterdog]

Not possible. All 12z runs trended east and if you can't see that then I don't know what to tell you.

at hour 144 there was little difference and it was colder than yesterday’s 12z. It changed a lot the next frame. I also don’t remember asking you to tell me anything

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021212/192/500h_anom.na.png

[wxmet]

ECMWF 12z looks good throughout the day on Sunday

http://oi66.tinypic.com/f563om.jpg

[Front Ranger]

I'm guessing when Tim posts the Euro snow maps, they will be the best yet.

 

Though possibly not for My Location...

[Front Ranger]

ECMWF 12z looks good throughout the day on Sunday

http://oi66.tinypic.com/f563om.jpg

 

The long-awaited, legit Arctic Front!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm guessing when Tim posts the Euro snow maps, they will be the best yet.

 

Though possibly not for My Location...

Euro snow maps are meaningless