February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[tomas]

Almost 6 p.m. and its still lots of daylight...  analogs???

 

Bigfoot country

[seattleweatherguy]

@7:30 PM near west Gresham, 39.5, dewpoint 17.5, light east wind.

 

00z GFS underway. This is a fairly important run. We need 00z runs tonight to trend back to the west with the block holding more firmly around 150-160 W and remaining amplified so it doesn't elongate with increased 500mb heights pushing into BC. That ends up shunting the deeper arctic air eastward and makes a secondary colder reload less favorable. A stronger southeast US ridge would also be very nice.

 

--

00z ECMWF in 2 hours 15 minutes

Weird I only use metro star for gfs that starts at 9 or 10. You using a different site.

[Esquimalt]

Weird I only use metro star for gfs that starts at 9 or 10. You using a different site.

Try Tropical Tidbits.  I like that site, except for the Euro.  The euro doesn't have many features on Tidbits.  

 

 

Not expecting anything, the cold/dry air typically scours out quickly around the island in these situations. Parts of the lower mainland should do much better with more favourable cold air damming.

 

Same.  The storm comes at the warmest part of the day, therefore, the chances of snow are greatly diminished compared to if it came let's say tomorrow morning at 6 AM.   

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS

 

Day 3

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021300/072/500h_anom.na.png

 

Day 4

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021300/096/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Near Ft. Still in Medicine Park, SW of OKC. I really enjoyed the wildlife refuge and definitely want to visit again during tstorm season.

 

I have not been to that area. But that area of OK is prime time during storm season. Where I lived out north of Tulsa is not quite as good.We got more winter weather though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Weird I only use metro star for gfs that starts at 9 or 10. You using a different site.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018021300&fh=0

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2018021300&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt=

[Front Ranger]

On the 0z, ridge amplifies faster and the initial shortwave dropping down from AK is stronger. This slows down the progress of the shortwave as it heads south...but the more amplified ridge also looks more likely to tilt at hour 114.

 

Should end up being a snowier run than the 18z, at least, and probably just as cold but slower with the initial shot of cold.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 block more amplified

[Gradient Keeper]

We need the offshore ridge, Aleutian ridge merger to occur further west, or the block to pivot around quicker improving tilt pulling the base of the block west allowing arctic trough over BC to dig more south-southwestward.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 27 here. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm, block is merging with high latitude block over Nunavut/arctic regions.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5.5 MUCH better amplification

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Slightly better than the 18z so far. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Thickness contours aligned more east to west dropping south indicates arctic trough trying to or may dig much better.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Quite a bit better than the 18z through 150.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 SNOW!

[Front Ranger]

Pretty large differences in the blocking ridge between 18z and 0z runs.

 

 

[wxmet]

Nice GFS 00z run. Look like 3-4 inches in the Seattle metro area. 

[TT-SEA]

Precip goes into Monday morning on the 00Z GFS as well.   Its scattered in nature... but some people will no doubt score with that set up on Sunday night.   For sure in my backyard too.   I have some security cams focused on the yard so I can get an idea of what is happening here and report in.  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM is not good at all. Period. Hmmm. Weird.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 7 518 thickness PDX

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Legit arctic front...

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 186 513 thickness PDX!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z GEM is not good at all. Period. Hmmm. Weird.

 

A lot like the 18z GFS. 

 

I am just watching this beautiful 00 GFS unfold. 

[Esquimalt]

00z GEM is not good at all. Period. Hmmm. Weird.

Trough looks titled a little too far north allowing the ridge to dig well into Washington.  Southeast ridge is weaker as well... temps do get colder later in the run around hour 150 or so.  

[FroYoBro]

The GFS is looking real cold tonight.

[TT-SEA]

00z GEM is not good at all. Period. Hmmm. Weird.

 

That is crazy.    I want model consistency.  

[Front Ranger]

Legit arctic front...

 

GFS moving towards the Euro again. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Great news! The ICON is back in the cold camp! In fact the ICON is even quicker than the GFS with the arctic air with the 516 thickness like through PDX around hour 156.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 NICE!!!!

[Front Ranger]

Best GFS run yet for the period within 10 days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Block still looks strong at hour 204.

[ShawniganLake]

00z GEM is not good at all. Period. Hmmm. Weird.

ICON was cold to make up for it. 510 thickness south of Seattle

[Esquimalt]

ICON was cold to make up for it. 510 thickness south of Seattle

The GEM does show about 2 inches over much of Vancouver Island from the Wednesday system.  

[Deweydog]

Hate to say I told you so...

[ShawniganLake]

That is crazy. I want model consistency.

5 or 6 days out. What’s the fun in that.

[van city]

Great news! The ICON is back in the cold camp! In fact the ICON is even quicker than the GFS with the arctic air with the 516 thickness like through PDX around hour 156.

 

Who cares for the ICON, as long as you are here a I am good.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Esquimalt]

5 or 6 days out. What’s the fun in that.

The GEM wasn't that bad.  I mean it wasn't great, but it does still show some promise.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hate to say I told you so...

 

Gotta keep up this reverse psychology!