February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

The new 00z GFS looks excellent! Cold with plenty of snow chances throughout the run. The 00z ICON came in even colder! Onto the 00z King EURO! Let's go!

SCORE!!!!!

[snow_wizard]

The ensemble is notably colder than the 18z.  Wow!

[snow_wizard]

1990...

 

Ok, I'll stop. 

 

1990 was a fabulous event that kind of gets overshadowed by 1989.  1988-89, 1989-90, and 1990-91 all had major events.  Pretty amazing run.

[snow_wizard]

You don't see this every day!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

New Euro Weeklies are...... well....... you be the judge

[Jbolin]

The Ecmwf will be east bound and down.

Loaded up and truckin'

 

It's goin' do what they say can't be done

[snow_wizard]

New Euro Weeklies are...... well....... you be the judge

 

Maybe this will be the northerly flow dominated spring we are so overdue for.  At any rate we might have several opportunities to pick up some snow over the next few weeks.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Bigtime improvements over the 18z

[snow_wizard]

What in the world is Jesse waiting for I wonder?

[TT-SEA]

What in the world is Jesse waiting for I wonder?

 

He is busy with school and a research project... he will probably be back soon.   

[snow_wizard]

A couple of the top analogs are 1962 and 1955.  Pretty good company!

[van city]

What in the world is Jesse waiting for I wonder?

He has time out.

[Front Ranger]

1990 was a fabulous event that kind of gets overshadowed by 1989.  1988-89, 1989-90, and 1990-91 all had major events.  Pretty amazing run.

 

Yeah, after the Feb/March 1989 combo the previous winter, Feb 1990 kinda seemed like small beans, I'm sure.

 

I vaguely remember a little bit of snow with that in Tacoma as an 8 year old kid...the Dec 1990 event made a much larger impression on me, of course.

[Dave]

30 degrees here. Could get chilly tonight. Nice to see some cold members. Significant shrinkage expected.

[seattleweatherguy]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018021300&fh=0

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2018021300&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt=

Thanks this helps. Hope I can read these right. The euro on this too as well as other models?

[BLI snowman]

A couple of the top analogs are 1962 and 1955. Pretty good company!

A lot of years that feature cold at this point tend to have pretty prolonged or recurring patterns like that. Mid February into March is like all or nothing time. Usually dead but occasionally a barrage of cold opportunities.

[Front Ranger]

He has time out.

 

I think he just wanted to feel missed.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 2 - block notch further west, Kona low several notches southwest

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021300/048/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 looks better than previous runs

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021300/072/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Thanks this helps. Hope I can read these right. The euro on this too as well as other models?

You're welcome. Yep, all models.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021300/096/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021300/120/500h_anom.na.png

[MikeInEverett]

It's a few notches east!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yep the 00z not nearly as good... baby steps backwards out to hour 120.

[Karl Bonner]

Don't tell me it's goin' east on us again!!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Don't tell me it's goin' east on us again!!!

It is trying... we shall see.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021300/144/500h_anom.na.png

[Timmy]

Looks cooler and drier than last nights euro at day 6

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z tonight

 

 

 

00z last night

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Can’t win em all fellas!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 meh

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021300/168/500h_anom.na.png

[liquidsnow]

Day 7 meh

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021300/168/500h_anom.na.png

Well ****....

 

*gunshot*

[TT-SEA]

All the precip is done by early Sunday morning on the 00Z ECMWF.   

 

Here is total snow from Friday morning through Sunday morning...  

 

 

 

It actually shows that its sunny and in the mid to upper 30s by Sunday afternoon... and 40s farther south.  

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Day 7 meh

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021300/168/500h_anom.na.png

Looks fine to me. Still plenty of cold air makes it in.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021300/168/850t.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 elongated block, not holding or remaining amplified. However, the block axis is good and it's real possible the next run is colder.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021300/192/500h_anom.na.png

[TT-SEA]

Day 7 highs... warmer than previous run.    Likely because there is no snow on the ground in the lowlands on this run.  

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021300/216/500h_anom.na.png

[TT-SEA]

Day 8 highs...  with system sliding down the coast.

 

 

Does not come inland any further... sliding straight south and gone by the next frame.  

 

[MossMan]

Day 7 highs... warmer than previous run. Likely because there is no snow on the ground in the lowlands on this run.

 

Looks like we will be getting our boats ready for early summer fun!

[Deweydog]

We're f*cked.