February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So the maps Tim posted showed the following highs for SLE

 

Monday: 36

Tuesday: 38

Wednesday: 41

 

If that verified that is very cold for this time of year. Looks like 850's bottom out around -12/-13 for the Willamette Valley. Would be the coldest upper level airmass since December 2013.

 

I am betting the temps will be colder at the surface as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Impressive lows this morning across Oregon

 

AST 27

PDX 26

SLE 23

EUG 22

MDF 21

TDS 20

PDT 16

RDM 4

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What is the EURO showing for lows next week?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So nice to have action in the forecast inside of a week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have generated a new 7 day forecast for TigerWoodsLibido

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Through Day 15 EPS has the block axis at 150-160 W with a fairly strong signal for it and a cold trough.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What is the EURO showing for lows next week?

21 in Monmouth with thicknesses dropping close to that 522 and below threshold which would actually allow for onshore, BSF snow, esp in heavier showers/bands.

[jaya]

I see Jaya is online...what are your thoughts on the upcoming pattern?

I think the pattern transition looks like a good bet.  The details are a few days from being known, but it looks promising for cold and possibly some lowland snow. All I can say at this time. Nothing you all don't know.

[Geos]

4km GFS showing about a 750 ft snow level tonight, especially away from the water.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I have generated a new 7 day forecast for TigerWoodsLibido

 

Looks pretty plausible

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z EURO looks superb! Arctic air arrives on February 19th. Once the Arctic air entrenches itself in the Columbia River Basin it's going to be hard to scour it out without an overrunning event happening. Plus snow_wizard said late February Arctic Blast are rarely dry so we also have that going for us. Onto the 18z GFS in a couple hours and 00z model runs tonight! ❄❄❄

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021312/144/850t.na.png

[MikeInEverett]

Just realized if we do get snow on Sunday, all snow events this season will have fallen on Sunday’s (11/5, 12/24, 2/18) and be spaced out very evenly. 11/5-12/24 (50 days) 12/24-2/18 (58 days).

[Phil]

Day 15 EPS is simply beautiful. This is the type of pattern that was very common back in the 17th-19th centuries, but has been relatively rare since.

 

[TT-SEA]

Yesterday the sounding for Bremerton was -2c 850 in the afternoon with light north flow and they hit 44 my home hit 40. The temps seem warm to me shown at the surface. But it also is very hard to predict how cold the outflow will be as well. 

 

Its not linear.    There are many factors.

 

The general thinking on here was that -11C with sunshine and bare ground results in 40 for a high in mid February.  

[Farmboy]

I have generated a new 7 day forecast for TigerWoodsLibido

 

Back to BSF by next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[Phil]

The 12z EURO looks superb! Arctic air arrives on February 19th. Once the Arctic air entrenches itself in the Columbia River Basin it's going to be hard to scour it out without an overrunning event happening. Plus snow_wizard said late February Arctic Blast are rarely dry so we also have that going for us. Onto the 18z GFS in a couple hours and 00z model runs tonight! ❄❄❄

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018021312/144/850t.na.png

The 850mb temperatures over NE-Canada have been absolutely insane this month. Down to -47.7C at one point last week, just east of the Hudson Bay, on reanalysis. It’s actually not unusual to go many years without 850s coming anywhere close to -40C there.

 

FWIW, the sub -40C 850s have persisted for almost two weeks now, and they don’t look to be going anywhere until the SSW takes out the TPV late in the month. Have to look back to January 1993/94 to find anything close, and even that airmass wasn’t quite as intense at 65N. Not to mention we’re a month later into the season this time.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Doesn't get any better than this...

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

I can't remember last time I seen that much below normal. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Its not linear.    There are many factors.

 

The general thinking on here was that -11C with sunshine and bare ground results in 40 for a high in mid February.  

 

This why I love weather. Now I will be very interested to see the high. 

[Timmy]

I can't remember last time I seen that much below normal.

2014

[TT-SEA]

One last beautiful day... 47 and sunny here.      

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Redmond, OR up to 49 after a morning low of 4.

 

Horse Ridge east of Bend with a 45/-16 day so far.

[ShawniganLake]

Redmond, OR up to 49 after a morning low of 4.

 

Horse Ridge east of Bend with a 45/-16 day so far.

There have been some huge swings with this airmass in the bc interior the past couple days too.

 

Puntzi mountain had a -34/20 day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There have been some huge swings with this airmass in the bc interior the past couple days too.

 

Puntzi mountain had a -34/20 day.

 

I enjoy these continental airmasses for that reason. The cold airmasses in late October 2002 and 2006 were special to me for that reason. It is hard for places like Salem and Eugene to get into the teens in mid-winter so an airmass that can allow EUG to hit 17 and 16 respectively in late October is pretty incredible and one of the key factors is low dewpoints.

[ShawniganLake]

18Z ICON really digs that trough in favourably this weekend.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18Z ICON really digs that trough in favourably this weekend.

 

3CE69B0F-407A-42B5-A507-1F0503DC0C07.png

 

The ICON only goes out to 120 hours on the 06 and 18z runs, but it looks incredible. Here is hour 120 with a close up view...Looks a lot like the 12z GEM did later on... Also a big improvement over the 12z ICON. 

 

[Deweydog]

ICON ALERT!

[Phil]

Notable NPAC circulation changes:

 

[Phil]

Even on the 1971-2000 baseline, global SSTs are close to average now. Increased tropical wind speeds (thanks to the descending -QBO and SSW reducing the static stability integral) have removed some OHC via evaporative feedback.

 

[Blizzard777]

Currently playing out on Mt Hood

Rescue mission for many climbers because of ground conditions. Looks like one may have died ( this particular climber they were preforming cpr for a long time before the chopper got him/her out...still waiting to see if this climber made it).

Amazing these choppers can get into these areas. Almost near the summit

[Blizzard777]

Katu is running a live stream from a chopper

 

Spoke to soon, live stream offline now

[Blizzard777]

Weather channel also running live coverage from there

[Geos]

12z EPS for Everett looks amazing. Seattle ends up around 2 inches. Portland ends around 3. Bellingham around 3 as well.

 

Not sure if ensembles can pick up on mesoscale features like CZs, but this lends me to believe they can considering Everett is so much higher than surrounding locations.

 

Interesting.

I have hope that we will get in on the action.

[Jbolin]

Currently playing out on Mt Hood

Rescue mission for many climbers because of ground conditions. Looks like one may have died.

Amazing these choppers can get into these areas. Almost near the summit

Hopefully this doesn't play out like the attempted rescue of climbers in 2002 where a Blackhawk crashed

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through hour 126 the 18z isn't as good yet...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully this doesn't play out like the attempted rescue of climbers in 2002 where a Blackhawk crashed

 

D**n I remember that. I think it was May?

 

GFS looks like it will be fine...

[Blizzard777]

Hopefully this doesn't play out like the attempted rescue of climbers in 2002 where a Blackhawk crashed

I remember watching that one live. Could not believe I was watching it actually play out. I remember yelling out Noooooo!

[TT-SEA]

Wander the yard enjoying the sunshine just now and took some 'before' pics and then will compare after we return.     Although this is already after a couple solid freezes the last two nights... including 26 this morning.

 

 

 

 

[Geos]

Spring plants will be put on pause for a bit with this pattern coming up.

 

GFS snowfall through 180.

 

[Esquimalt]

The 18Z GFS looks significantly less good than the 12Z.  Unfortunately, the block is further east therefore we don't have as much cold air here in the PNW.  

 

Hopefully it gets better.   

[Jbolin]

The 18Z GFS looks significantly less good than the 12Z.  Unfortunately, the block is further east therefore we don't have as much cold air here in the PNW.  

 

Hopefully it gets better.   

18Z =