February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

The main reason it should be considered a joke at this point is because we're so far out still that it will undoubtedly change between now and then.

 

Not necessarily because they are just "usually a joke". That won't really apply in a situation like this where we, for once, aren't on the fringe (barring any changes).

 

The WeatherBell snowfall maps for the GFS looks much more reasonable and seem to take into account geography.   This looks more like how I think it would play out in a post-frontal situation.  

 

4 a.m. - 10 a.m. on Sunday:

 

 

10 a.m. - 4 p.m. on Sunday

 

 

 

4 p.m. - 10 p.m. on Sunday

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Current Version Previous Version: 1 2 3 4 5

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 

FXUS66 KSEW 140515

AFDSEW

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

915 PM PST Tue Feb 13 2018

 

.SYNOPSIS...A cold front will move southeast across the region

late tonight or early Wednesday. Expect the steady precipitation

to taper off to scattered showers behind the front. Another system

will bring more precipitation to the area late Thursday night and

Friday. A much stronger frontal system will bring wet and windy

weather to the region Friday night and Saturday.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...

There have been some snowflakes mixed in with the rain over parts

of the Puget Sound Region this evening but not anticipating any

accumulations. There will probably be a dusting on the higher

hills above the 1500 foot level. Will need to keep an eye on the

northern lowland zones (Skagit County northward) later tonight or

early Wednesday since there is a possibility that the rain could

change over to snow behind the front or when the winds switch out

of the north.

 

Meanwhile, a cold front presently over British Columbia will sweep

across the CWA late tonight or early Wednesday morning. This

front should be well east of the Cascades by late Wednesday

morning.

 

Snow levels will remain low, around 2500 ft or less. Snow may

become heavy for a time as the front pushes into the Cascades late

tonight. The flow will be strong along and behind the front which

will enhance orographic snowfall. An additional 2 to 4 inches

could fall behind the front Wednesday morning. In all, about 5 to

10 inches of snow are expected with locally higher amounts along

the volcanos. The advisory for snow remains in effect from this

evening through Wednesday morning. In the lowlands, rain tapers to

showers Wednesday with breezy winds picking up once the surface

low tracks inland north of Puget Sound.

 

A lull or break in light rain or showers is possible Wednesday night

and part of Thursday. Models are waffling on the timing of the next

much weaker short wave. The GFS/ECMWF are closer today and do skirt

the Olympic peninsula and north interior with some light rain at

times. Not much measurable rainfall expected over for inland areas

including Puget Sound until late Thursday afternoon or night.

Another warm frontal wave will bring some light rain at times on

Friday. Mercer/05

 

.LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION...

Global models all advertise a significant pattern change by the

weekend. Recent model runs continue to indicate a retrograding

ridge offshore and a cold low arriving from the northwest. Winds

may be the initial issue, possible advisory level across the area.

It will depend on if the ECMWF is correct with the deepening low

tracking near the WA/B.C. border giving tight southerly gradient

over the area. Other models agree with a system arriving Saturday

but are not as strong with the gradients and wind.

 

Virtually all models show additional energy on the back side of the

high amplitude ridge driving a modified arctic front into the north

interior as outflow winds probably develop. The air aloft is also

colder with this system which almost supports onshore snow near sea-

level. A band of showers Wednesday night could very well fall as

spotty snow around interior Western Washington. If this high

amplitude ridge does develop, cold air will drive over the mountains

and not rely upon Fraser outflow alone. Highs could be cooler than

forecast but kept Sunday and Monday slightly milder than what might

occur. It will be interesting to see how models trend this week.

Mercer

 

&&

 

.AVIATION...An upper level trof will move over the region

overnight. Strong W or SW flow aloft will weaken and become WNW

early Wednesday. Expect a cdfnt over British Columbia to move SE

across the area late tonight or early Wednesday. Expect wdsprd

MVFR CIGs and areas of MVFR VSBYs overnight.

 

KSEA...Expect MVFR CIGs (1-3K ft) to prevail thru early Wednesday

afternoon. There will be occasional MVFR VSBYs (4-6SM) overnight.

Sly winds will increase to 10-15 knots early Wednesday before

diminishing and becoming northerly early Wednesday afternoon.

Fropa is anticipated between 1200 UTC (4 AM PST) and 1500 UTC (7

AM PST).

 

&&

 

.MARINE...

A cold front extending from a 1009 mb low over British Columbia

will move across the area overnight through early Wednesday.

Moderate onshore or westerly flow in the wake of the front will

become northerly Wednesday afternoon. Light onshore flow will

return on Thursday. Expect a weak cold or occluded front to move

SE across the area on Friday.

 

&&

 

.HYDROLOGY...

River flooding is not expected the next 7 days.

 

&&

 

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Cascades

of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and King

Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.

 

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Coastal Waters

From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal

Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal

Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-

Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10

Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater

10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape

Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

 

Small Craft Advisory for rough bar from 9 AM to 10 PM PST

Wednesday for Grays Harbor Bar.

 

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Central U.S.

Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters

Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The

San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal-West Entrance

U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

 

&&

 

 

 

 

www.weather.gov/seattle

[MikeInEverett]

Rain snow mix!!

[Esquimalt]

Weirdly the rain seems to be moving out of the Victoria area.  In fact, the airport is reporting mostly cloudy and 41  , while Vancouver reports 33 and snow.  Perhaps a secondary band will move through the Victoria region later?  The models seemed to indicate the precipitation ending tomorrow.  

[TT-SEA]

Weirdly the rain seems to be moving out of the Victoria area.  In fact, the airport is reporting mostly cloudy and 41  , while Vancouver reports 33 and snow.  Perhaps a secondary band will move through the Victoria region later?  The models seemed to indicate the precipitation ending tomorrow.  

 

You need to add your location to your profile.  

[MossMan]

Big time snow, ground turning white!!!!!!!

[Front Ranger]

GEM. Snowy.

[TT-SEA]

Big time snow, ground turning white!!!!!!!

 

Awesome!  

[Winterdog]

Big time snow, ground turning white!!!!!!!

Same here! 35F so very wet sloppy flakes.

[Front Ranger]

I have been watching Hawaii closely in the models of course... the 12Z run is much farther north and east with that Kona low by the middle of next week and everything is shifted east along the West Coast as well compared to the 00Z run.   

 

Am I the only one who would find it fooking hilarious if a Kona low (tied to Arctic air/snowfall in the PNW, of course) ruined your Hawaiian vacation?

 

Love ya, Tim. 

[van city]

Awesome!

 

Vancouver

[Esquimalt]

Vancouvertowers-current (1).jpg

Beautiful.  So happy for you guys!

[Front Ranger]

Big time snow, ground turning white!!!!!!!

 

Nice. Off to a good start. You'll probably be one of the biggest winners with this pattern.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Mossman looks to get a few inches tonight. Just my prediction.

[TT-SEA]

Am I the only one who would find it fooking hilarious if a Kona low (tied to Arctic air/snowfall in the PNW, of course) ruined your Hawaiian vacation?

 

Love ya, Tim. 

 

Yeah... won't happen that way.   Sorry to ruin your giddiness.  

 

We will be in the driest part of the state and there is nothing major shown over the next 2 weeks.    Warm and humid with some scattered showers at best.   Pretty typical Hawaii weather.   

 

See that red area... that is where we will be staying. 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Light snow Arlington

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2014!!

Yeah exactly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Who saw the GEM. I haven't seen it yet.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... won't happen that way.   Sorry to ruin your giddiness.  

 

We will be in the driest part of the state and there is nothing major shown over the next 2 weeks.    Warm and humid with some scattered showers at best.   Pretty typical Hawaii weather.   

 

See that red area... that is where we will be staying. 

 

 

Bullet-proof!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the ensemble mean took a dip in the Sunday-Tues period.

[Front Ranger]

Who saw the GEM. I haven't seen it yet.

 

I thought I did. Turns out I did, but it was the 12z. Been a long day.

[TT-SEA]

Bullet-proof!

 

We picked that spot for a reason.   It can be raining all over the Big Island and still sunny and 82 at the resorts there.   We have seen that many times... drive away in any direction and you hit rain within 10 minutes.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I thought I did. Turns out I did, but it was the 12z. Been a long day.

 

Ahhh that's what I was wondering.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like the ensemble mean took a dip in the Sunday-Tues period.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Yep, mean is closer to -8 at 850mb instead of -7

[MossMan]

Still snowing, trying to stick to the concrete now.

Down to 32.7.

[Front Ranger]

We picked that spot for a reason.   It can be raining all over the Big Island and still sunny and 82 at the resorts there.   We have seen that many times... drive away in any direction and you hit rain within 10 minutes.   

 

Never underestimate the power of a rogue Kona low, though...

 

[TT-SEA]

Never underestimate the power of a rogue Kona low, though...

 

 

We are not in Kona though.    There is a huge difference in weather between Kona and places to the north of Kona.    Its often raining in Kona  and to the south even in a normal trade wind pattern.  

 

And even a day or two of heavy rain would not ruin a 2-week vacation.  

[Front Ranger]

We are not in Kona though.   

 

And even a day or two of heavy rain would not ruin a 2-week vacation.  

 

True happiness is found in accepting and embracing whatever situation one finds oneself in.

[seattleweatherguy]

According to the radar it's snowing north of marysville

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Went to Kona about 10 years ago with the family. Great time, but beaches are tough to ocme by. Nevertheless, my oldest son, who was 17 at the time, had a tooth ache. That evening, we were going to go to the movies, so on the way, I got some Anbesol while everyone else went to get tickets. When I got to the movies, I handed the Anbesol to my son and told him to hold it because I was being paged by my youngest son to watch him play a video game in the lobby.

 

bout a minute later, when the game was over, I asked my son for the Anbesol, and he said he drank it already. Just as the words left his mouth, he started panicking because his mouth went numb and he said he couldn't breathe--so we ended up calling the Fire Department. They arrived about 5 minutes later, checked him out and said he was okay--but they told us if they could tell the story, they would not charge us for the trip. We told them to tell the story to whomever they wanted.

 

And my 19 year old daughter (who gets her PhD in 3 months), labled him the Anbesol Imbecile.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter Weather Advisory just posted here. 1-3" expected between 1am-7am.

[Jbolin]

Winter Weather Advisory just posted here. 1-3" expected between 1am-7am.

Biggest bust since 2005

[TT-SEA]

Went to Kona about 10 years ago with the family. Great time, but beaches are tough to ocme by. Nevertheless, my oldest son, who was 17 at the time, had a tooth ache. That evening, we were going to go to the movies, so on the way, I got some Anbesol while everyone else went to get tickets. When I got to the movies, I handed the Anbesol to my son and told him to hold it because I was being paged by my youngest son to watch him play a video game in the lobby.

 

bout a minute later, when the game was over, I asked my son for the Anbesol, and he said he drank it already. Just as the words left his mouth, he started panicking because his mouth went numb and he said he couldn't breathe--so we ended up calling the Fire Department. They arrived about 5 minutes later, checked him out and said he was okay--but they told us if they could tell the story, they would not charge us for the trip. We told them to tell the story to whomever they wanted.

 

And my 19 year old daughter (who gets her PhD in 3 months), labled him the Anbesol Imbecile.

 

Scary. 

 

Hapuna Beach is the best... also in the driest and sunniest part of the island.    But a 30-minute drive north from Kona.  

 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is running!   

 

Snowfall maps will be posted shortly.  

[Timmy]

Winter Weather Advisory just posted here. 1-3" expected between 1am-7am.

lucky!

[Front Ranger]

Went to Kona about 10 years ago with the family. Great time, but beaches are tough to ocme by. Nevertheless, my oldest son, who was 17 at the time, had a tooth ache. That evening, we were going to go to the movies, so on the way, I got some Anbesol while everyone else went to get tickets. When I got to the movies, I handed the Anbesol to my son and told him to hold it because I was being paged by my youngest son to watch him play a video game in the lobby.

 

bout a minute later, when the game was over, I asked my son for the Anbesol, and he said he drank it already. Just as the words left his mouth, he started panicking because his mouth went numb and he said he couldn't breathe--so we ended up calling the Fire Department. They arrived about 5 minutes later, checked him out and said he was okay--but they told us if they could tell the story, they would not charge us for the trip. We told them to tell the story to whomever they wanted.

 

And my 19 year old daughter (who gets her PhD in 3 months), labled him the Anbesol Imbecile.

 

Glad your son was ok. Scary stuff...though not as scary as rain on a Hawaiian vacation.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Weirdly the rain seems to be moving out of the Victoria area.  In fact, the airport is reporting mostly cloudy and 41  , while Vancouver reports 33 and snow.  Perhaps a secondary band will move through the Victoria region later?  The models seemed to indicate the precipitation ending tomorrow.  

 

There was never going to be much here tonight, wrong pattern. The lower mainland will be the big winners out of this, but lots of snow on the ground up there would help when the outflow starts to pour in on Sunday. On another note, the temperature has been steadily dropping here, down to 37.5F.

[Front Ranger]

Shortwave beginning its journey south from AK is further west at day 3, compared to last night's 0z.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim just seen on news... Hawaii is closed.

[TT-SEA]

Glad your son was ok. Scary stuff...though not as scary as rain on a Hawaiian vacation.

 

Nobody said rain in Hawaii is scary.   But we would prefer to not be on the wet side of an island given that we are coming from Seattle.   We want something different than daily rain.   That is usually how vacations work.   

 

You are making something out of nothing just to be a jerk.   I did not even bring up Hawaii tonight.