tomas Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Almost 6 p.m. and its still lots of daylight... analogs??? Bigfoot country Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 @7:30 PM near west Gresham, 39.5, dewpoint 17.5, light east wind. 00z GFS underway. This is a fairly important run. We need 00z runs tonight to trend back to the west with the block holding more firmly around 150-160 W and remaining amplified so it doesn't elongate with increased 500mb heights pushing into BC. That ends up shunting the deeper arctic air eastward and makes a secondary colder reload less favorable. A stronger southeast US ridge would also be very nice. --00z ECMWF in 2 hours 15 minutesWeird I only use metro star for gfs that starts at 9 or 10. You using a different site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Weird I only use metro star for gfs that starts at 9 or 10. You using a different site.Try Tropical Tidbits. I like that site, except for the Euro. The euro doesn't have many features on Tidbits. Not expecting anything, the cold/dry air typically scours out quickly around the island in these situations. Parts of the lower mainland should do much better with more favourable cold air damming. Same. The storm comes at the warmest part of the day, therefore, the chances of snow are greatly diminished compared to if it came let's say tomorrow morning at 6 AM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 00z GFS Day 3http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021300/072/500h_anom.na.png Day 4http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021300/096/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Near Ft. Still in Medicine Park, SW of OKC. I really enjoyed the wildlife refuge and definitely want to visit again during tstorm season. I have not been to that area. But that area of OK is prime time during storm season. Where I lived out north of Tulsa is not quite as good.We got more winter weather though. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Weird I only use metro star for gfs that starts at 9 or 10. You using a different site.https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018021300&fh=0 http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2018021300&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 On the 0z, ridge amplifies faster and the initial shortwave dropping down from AK is stronger. This slows down the progress of the shortwave as it heads south...but the more amplified ridge also looks more likely to tilt at hour 114. Should end up being a snowier run than the 18z, at least, and probably just as cold but slower with the initial shot of cold. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Day 5 block more amplified Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 We need the offshore ridge, Aleutian ridge merger to occur further west, or the block to pivot around quicker improving tilt pulling the base of the block west allowing arctic trough over BC to dig more south-southwestward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Down to 27 here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Hmmm, block is merging with high latitude block over Nunavut/arctic regions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Day 5.5 MUCH better amplification Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Slightly better than the 18z so far. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Thickness contours aligned more east to west dropping south indicates arctic trough trying to or may dig much better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Quite a bit better than the 18z through 150. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Day 6 SNOW! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Pretty large differences in the blocking ridge between 18z and 0z runs. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Nice GFS 00z run. Look like 3-4 inches in the Seattle metro area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Precip goes into Monday morning on the 00Z GFS as well. Its scattered in nature... but some people will no doubt score with that set up on Sunday night. For sure in my backyard too. I have some security cams focused on the yard so I can get an idea of what is happening here and report in. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 00z GEM is not good at all. Period. Hmmm. Weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 00z GFS Day 7 518 thickness PDX 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Legit arctic front... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 HR 186 513 thickness PDX! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 00z GEM is not good at all. Period. Hmmm. Weird. A lot like the 18z GFS. I am just watching this beautiful 00 GFS unfold. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 00z GEM is not good at all. Period. Hmmm. Weird.Trough looks titled a little too far north allowing the ridge to dig well into Washington. Southeast ridge is weaker as well... temps do get colder later in the run around hour 150 or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 The GFS is looking real cold tonight. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 00z GEM is not good at all. Period. Hmmm. Weird. That is crazy. I want model consistency. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Legit arctic front... GFS moving towards the Euro again. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Great news! The ICON is back in the cold camp! In fact the ICON is even quicker than the GFS with the arctic air with the 516 thickness like through PDX around hour 156. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Day 8 NICE!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Best GFS run yet for the period within 10 days. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Block still looks strong at hour 204. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 00z GEM is not good at all. Period. Hmmm. Weird.ICON was cold to make up for it. 510 thickness south of Seattle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 ICON was cold to make up for it. 510 thickness south of SeattleThe GEM does show about 2 inches over much of Vancouver Island from the Wednesday system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Hate to say I told you so... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 That is crazy. I want model consistency.5 or 6 days out. What’s the fun in that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Great news! The ICON is back in the cold camp! In fact the ICON is even quicker than the GFS with the arctic air with the 516 thickness like through PDX around hour 156. Who cares for the ICON, as long as you are here a I am good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 5 or 6 days out. What’s the fun in that.The GEM wasn't that bad. I mean it wasn't great, but it does still show some promise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Hate to say I told you so... Gotta keep up this reverse psychology! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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