wx_statman Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Once again, computers rule the day as far as the valley snow situation right now. Pretty soon human forecasters will be obsolete. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 About the only good news for the Seattle area is it's clear tonight and it will get really cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Euro from last night did very well. You'd think they'd have learned that you shouldn't bet against it.I was about to say... The 0z last night pretty much nailed it. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Looks like we could stay in Hawaii for another month and probably still come home to multiple chances for snow. Doesn't look like a particularly snow pattern to me, but to each their own: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Full access to the ECMWF surface maps is the only reason that I pay for WB. Its like having a crystal ball in most cases. Thank God for the Europeans! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Fair enough. I just wouldn't read too much into what just happened. And I would also point out that a system moving in from the SW requires specific configurations and tracks for Seattle to score, too. Can't be too far south, can't be too far north, can't be too warm, etc. Systems coming from the southwest are less prone to rain shadowing being on the windward side of the Olympics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 I was about to say... The 0z last night pretty much nailed it. Full access to the ECMWF surface maps is the only reason that I pay for WB. Its like having a crystal ball in many cases. Thank God for the Europeans! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Once again, computers rule the day as far as the valley snow situation right now. Pretty soon human forecasters will be obsolete. Perhaps. They did have some pretty epic fails for Seattle during the weekend though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 The Euro is terrible on this run. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisa0527 Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Anyone have the Euro snowfall maps for this weekend? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Euro from last night did very well. You'd think they'd have learned that you shouldn't bet against it. The NAM did pretty well also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Full access to the ECMWF surface maps is the only reason that I pay for WB. Its like having a crystal ball in many cases. Thank God for the Europeans!I totally lean on this place for that info. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Warm 850mb temperatures on the 00Z ECMWF next week? About time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Off topic. But since Seattle got screwed I had nothing better to do than to look around the US on my accuweather app there are areas on the east coast that are sitting in the mid 60s currently at almost 2am with snow cover. That would be weird. Alot of stations will have highs in the upper 60s and lows 70s tonight and will have lows tomorrow in the low 20s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Flurries just ended here. Finished with 4.25". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Flurries just ended here. Finished with 4.25".Also impressive. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 I'm thinking the chances are at least 50% Seattle won't score a decent snow out of this entire cold snap. Tonight's Euro is really bad, but it could be wrong. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Warm 850mb temperatures on the 00Z ECMWF next week? About time. Hope we can transition into more spring-like weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 I was about to say... The 0z last night pretty much nailed it. So will tonight's 00z Euro nail it too? Looks good for tomorrow night... I know I said I wouldn't look at any more models for tomorrow but this stuff is basically crack. I can't stop. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 The rainfall downn her is chillyy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Warm 850mb temperatures on the 00Z ECMWF next week? About time. No thanks. Save that garbage for summer. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Systems coming from the southwest are less prone to rain shadowing being on the windward side of the Olympics.I get that. But any slider that is strong enough or takes the right track can deliver snow. Today's system would have produced a Seattle snowstorm if it was either 1) 100 mi closer to the coast or 2) looped inland to the south of Seattle instead of staying offshore. Either scenario can happen with lows approaching from the NW. It was not the Olympics that prevented meaningful snow in Seattle today. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Hope we can transition into more spring-like weather. I agree. The ECMWF is very nice for next week. Looks like a decent pattern for early March... 50s and sunshine during the second part of the week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Hope we can transition into more spring-like weather. I want a dry / northerly flow dominated spring. I hate the dreary miserable springs we have normally been getting lately. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 No thanks. Save that garbage for summer. It doesn't agree with the 12z EPS at all so it's probably wrong. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 No thanks. Save that garbage for summer. Very confusing post. That is an 850mb temp anomaly map which is in relation to the normal 850mb temp at this time of year. You said you don't like hot weather, but now you want only warm 850mb temp anomalies in the summer? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 The rainfall downn her is chillyy I should have ran to the liquor store like you, that way I would have been better prepared 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 I get that. But any slider that is strong enough or takes the right track can deliver snow. Today's system would have produced a Seattle snowstorm if it was either 1) 100 mi closer to the coast or 2) looped inland to the south of Seattle instead of staying offshore. Either scenario can happen with lows approaching from the NW. It was not the Olympics that prevented meaningful snow in Seattle today. Yup. There is simply no mechanism to turn the systems inland over southern WA. Snow would be a virtual lock if that could happen. Terribly frustrating to have a 150 block and not get anything out of it. In all seriousness NW OR is due to be snubbed for about 5 years while Seattle gets nailed regularly. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 It doesn't agree with the 12z EPS at all so it's probably wrong. The EPS will not depict a ULL pattern very well in the blended mean in the 7-15 day period. Don't look for much help there. The ECMWF might be wrong but it does make sense that this pattern could evolve in that direction. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Hope we can transition into more spring-like weather.No thanks. Folks up north haven’t even gotten their shot at snow yet. Luckily this is a La Niña year so it will probably be a chilly spring. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 So will tonight's 00z Euro nail it too? Looks good for tomorrow night... I know I said I wouldn't look at any more models for tomorrow but this stuff is basically crack. I can't stop. Looks like it shows 2" for Portland tomorrow night. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 No thanks. Folks up north haven’t even gotten their shot at snow yet. Luckily this is a La Niña year so it will probably be a chilly spring. You can almost bet on it now that we have had this big flip. Probably lots of GOA ridging. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 When I miss out on snow like this I just need to remind myself that there are things in this world that are way more important than snow. 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 49/27 today in Eureka, CA. Impressively cold day for any time of year. The minimum tied the coldest they have ever been this late in the winter, 27 degrees on Feb. 27th in both 1890 & 1962. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 See...the people in Oregon couldn't give a s**t about us up here. Not saying it wouldn't be the same if the situation were reversed. Simply the ugly side of human nature.What exactly should we be doing? Trust me I would love to see you guys score. I don’t see why that means we can’t enjoy it when we get snow. It’s pretty rare down here too.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 You can almost bet on it now that we have had this big flip. Probably lots of GOA ridging. So is that a spring that you and I would like? Because Jesse is probably talking about a typical wet and very gloomy PNW spring that makes you want to flee Covington and never look back. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 So is that a spring that you and I would like? Because Jesse is probably talking about a typical wet and very gloomy PNW spring that makes you want to flee and never look back.From what I remember, the 2014-16 springs had a lot of warm/dry weather. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 So is that a spring that you and I would like? Because Jesse is probably talking about a typical wet and very gloomy PNW spring that makes you want to flee Covington and never look back.Jim and I like the same kind of spring weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 From what I remember, the 2014-16 springs had a lot of warm/dry weather. They did. But Jesse is right that a very gloomy and wet spring could be in the cards this year... which is also fairly typical for the PNW. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 21, 2018 Report Share Posted February 21, 2018 Latest GFS ensemble shows 850s bottoming at around -11.5 for SEA Thursday morning. Incredible sustained 850s below -9 from Sunday through Friday morning with this event. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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