February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

I'm thinking most of that will miss Central Sound areas and instead hit points further south. Could be wrong though.

  <_>

[wx_statman]

Interesting.  One of my analogs going this winter was 1921-22.  Too bad the middle of the winter didn't work out like that one.

 

Yeah, I don't think any of the old time analogs worked out for this winter. The only similar progressions that I'm seeing are all more recent, i.e. 1989-90, 1993-94, 2005-06. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a reflection of the low-frequency regime change we've seen since the 1970's. 

[HighlandExperience]

The radar looks decent now, just nothing falling from sky. 

[TT-SEA]

Do you have any snow on the ground?

 

 A little bit... maybe an inch in the spots that do not get direct sun.  

[TT-SEA]

This all started with a poorly timed post two nights ago.

 

Told you so! Told you so!

 

I know for a fact that the most guaranteed way to score lowland snow is for me to make a declarative statement that it will not happen and it will be warming up.   It works every time!  

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, I don't think any of the old time analogs worked out for this winter. The only similar progressions that I'm seeing are all more recent, i.e. 1989-90, 1993-94, 2005-06. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a reflection of the low-frequency regime change we've seen since the 1970's. 

 

1893-94 is reasonably similar, albeit with a better January. It even had an early November snow event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 A little bit... maybe an inch in the spots that do not get direct sun.  

 

It seems like the only time I really do a lot better than your location with these events are when they are later in the season.

[seattleweatherguy]

Lots of virga so far

[MossMan]

Just saw a snowflake fly by in the southerly breeze! 29 degrees currently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen is totally calling the NWS on their BS. Not only that...On his blog post he stated he believes snow levels will rise to 2000' by 10pm before dropping back down to about 1500' as cooler air aloft works in later tonight. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Really glad the region finally got the goods.

[MossMan]

Snowy up there!

[Deweydog]

It all started with their WSW on 12-1-05...

[wx_statman]

1893-94 is reasonably similar, albeit with a better January. It even had an early November snow event.

 

Yeah, that's a good example. January is what blows up most of the old analogs. I'm not seeing much in the way of -ENSO progressions that featured blockiness/dry weather in December, followed by a January torch, followed by February action prior to the modern era. In recent decades, 1989-90, 2005-06 & this winter have pulled it off. I think January used to find a way to be cooler in the old days even under similar forcings, which is not surprising considering the background climate was cooler. 

[MikeInEverett]

A few flurries here.

 

Snowing moderately now, looks to be a short lived shower though.

[Brennan]

Snowing moderately here in Glenhaven. Temperature stuck at 30*f. Everything turning white.

[wx_statman]

It all started with their WSW on 12-1-05...

 

....and Mark Nelsen launching his blog the previous day. 

[wx_statman]

Mark Nelsen is totally calling the NWS on their BS. Not only that...On his blog post he stated he believes snow levels will rise to 2000' by 10pm before dropping back down to about 1500' as cooler air aloft works in later tonight. 

 

Not this first time this has happened. He'll be right.

[snow_wizard]

EXCELLENT dynamics with that stuff moving onto the coast.  I am very hopeful now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

....and Mark Nelsen launching his blog the previous day. 

 

I like how Mark will point out when the NWS or other PDX area mets are being ridiculous. He has some well remembered whiffs like 12/29/09, but overall he is the best TV met in Portland and its not even close. I don't mind Zaffino, he is pretty good, but not as good as Mark. 

[Geos]

Temp jumped up to 35, sat there for a while, and now is back down to 33.

 

Temp hit a ceiling at 31-32 here. Been there for an hour now. Virga storm definitely in progress.

[MossMan]

Snowing!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And BTW, all these posts about how its not going to snow in the lowlands are in reference to PDX-south...I don't know if its going to snow in the Seattle area. Looking at the models it might...Just don't want anyone up there to think I am trying to rain on their parade.

[Deweydog]

....and Mark Nelsen launching his blog the previous day.

I think we all knew it but just didn't want to believe it:

 

It's Mark Nelsen's fault.

[snow_wizard]

I'm not sure Mark Nelson is right about Portland.  Radar shows snow almost right up to the coast ad in some cases a bit off the coast.

[Geos]

Flurries now in Bothell.

[wxmet]

NAM 18z shows the rain shadow filling in by 4pm.

[snow_wizard]

The temp has stopped rising at a "toasty" 32.7.  This will be the coldest day of the event here.  Who would have thought....

[Brennan]

Weird to see BLI at 30*F and snow with a 20mph SE wind. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not this first time this has happened. He'll be right.

 

The NWS twitter feed about 1-2" an hour snowfall rates hitting Salem at 830pm on Tuesday night is going to be something I laugh about for a long time. It was pretty obvious by early evening that was going to be a non-event at the valley floor south of the Metro area. Yet they stuck to their guns til the bitter end. 

 

Their winter weather advisory for the foothills tonight is ridiculous too... 5-10" of snow with "highest amounts above 1000'." Forget there may be a period of rain in there, I don't see enough precip with this system to deliver that kind of snow with what will probably be 7:1 ratios due to being very wet snow. 2-5" seems more appropriate. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40 and still somewhat pleasant.  Can almost see the sun through the increasing clouds. The WWA is indeed asinine.  Dewpoint here is 33 and with southerly flow there is no way there is any wintry precip around Salem below 500' and maybe even 1000'.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, that's a good example. January is what blows up most of the old analogs. I'm not seeing much in the way of -ENSO progressions that featured blockiness/dry weather in December, followed by a January torch, followed by February action prior to the modern era. In recent decades, 1989-90, 2005-06 & this winter have pulled it off. I think January used to find a way to be cooler in the old days even under similar forcings, which is not surprising considering the background climate was cooler. 

 

If we can get January back we will be just fine.  The other months have been doing ok as of late.  I'm hoping the VERY low solar next winter can help us.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Good shadow pattern for sure.

[seattleweatherguy]

Flurries now in Bothell.

Nice coming to me soon hopefully

[snow_wizard]

This is beginning to look potentially serious now.  Major slug of precip moving inland now.

[MossMan]

Moderate snow now!

[snow_wizard]

Good shadow pattern for sure.

 

Not for long.  People need to look really close at that coastal radar.  Shear.

[Deweydog]

I'm not sure Mark Nelson is right about Portland. Radar shows snow almost right up to the coast ad in some cases a bit off the coast.

Mark Nelsyn will be right. Not a particularly difficult call.

[ShawniganLake]

Not for long. People need to look really close at that coastal radar. Shear.

We are definitely getting shadowed here. Flurries falling but the sun is shining brightly through the clouds at times.

[Brennan]

The heaviest I've seen it snow all winter. Sitting on the couch staring out the window in amazement. YES!