February 5th-6th Midwest Snow Storm

[gosaints]

The 3km has money turning on his magnet

[bud2380]

The RGEM is much further south than the nam

[gosaints]

The RGEM is much further south than the nam

Nam drunk

[Tom]

The RGEM is much further south than the nam

12z ICON looks similar to the NAM...pound town in your backyard...

 

 

[bud2380]

Wow, snow is coming down good right now. I can’t inagone it will last long but it’s fun to look at

[bud2380]

RGEM

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018020412/045/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Niko]

Midweek storm needs to be watched carefully for heavy snow potential.

[bud2380]

GFS also much further south than the NAM.  I think it's safe to say the NAM run was total garbage.  

[Tom]

12z GFS...subtle shifts north compared to 00z run...

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, wtf is up with the NAM? Especially the 3k nam, which has the heaviest snow north well north of CR.  Strange.

[bud2380]

GFS shows about 2 days straight of snow at the end of the week into the weekend for a lot of Iowa and other areas in the midwest.  

[bud2380]

UK looks about the same as it has been. NAM clear outlier

[Grizzcoat]

Euro appears to have held it's own if not increased totals somewhat across the board compared to 00Z.  I believe also the entire NAM suite is an outlier.

[Tom]

12z Euro precip....placement looks very similar to the NAM...

[Minny_Weather]

Euro has been freaky consistent with bringing 3 or so inches for here on Tuesday night.

[bud2380]

I guess it depends where you live. In E Iowa the nam has the heaviest band of precip about 100 miles further north than the euro.

[BrianJK]

To believe, or not to believe...that is the question...at least its back to reality with the snow fall amounts instead of painting those 12"+ totals last night.

 

Exactly what went through my mind and I've come to a mixed consensus...  I believe it will snow, I do not believe the totals.  I'm going with 2" for our area. 

[Tom]

Exactly what went through my mind and I've come to a mixed consensus...  I believe it will snow, I do not believe the totals.  I'm going with 2" for our area. 

I'd say 3-4" is a safe bet.  All the models showing .20-.30 qpf and snow ratios will be primed with fluff factor.  On top of that, I'm seeing very solid evidence of meso scale banding so whoever can sit under one or two will cash in big.

[Tom]

12z EPS/Control rock steady cutting heaviest precip across IA/N IL...

[hlcater]

DVN hoisted an advisory for their entire CWA.  It's for 3-6", but I could see a warning hoisted once it becomes clear if and where the heaviest axis of snow will set up.

 

 

 

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the evening commute on Monday. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Illinois, west central Illinois,
east central Iowa, northeast Iowa, southeast Iowa and
northeast Missouri.

* WHEN...9 AM to 7 PM Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times and snow covered roads.

[bud2380]

In a shocking development the NAM has shifted south for tomorrow and is now in line with pretty much every other model.

[dubuque473]

Hmmm..... DVN added the wording "Heavy Snow" a bit ago for me....

[Tom]

LOT updated their snowfall totals...looks good to me...pockets of 6-8" showing up along I-80 corridor...

 

 

[james1976]

WWA here. 3-5 with locally higher. Daytime as well so much more enjoyable. I wonder if we see a few counties under a warning.

[Hawkeye]

There is still some model spread... euro/nam have the best snow through CR/IC, while others have it as far south as Des Moines to Burlington.

[bud2380]

I’m not too worried either way. Even the further south solutions have a solid 5” for CR and IC.

[Minny_Weather]

God D**n. If 18Z GFS or 12Z Euro verify that may give us a fighting chance to make up our deficit.

[Grizzcoat]

  Think I sit in a good spot. S trend apparent again. Likely focus on radar returns and HRRR / RAP from here on out. Here is to the best for everyone--- DILLY DILLY!!!1

[Minny_Weather]

If we get freezing rain tomorrow like HRRR/NAMily want to do, I'm gonna skip class.

[Grizzcoat]

[snowstorm83]

God d**n. If 18Z GFS or 12Z Euro verify that may give us a fighting chance to make up our deficit.

 

Best case scenario tomorrow is an inch and it looks like 2-3" possible Tuesday. I'd be happy with that, but it would still be a long way to go to normal snowfall.

[Minny_Weather]

Best case scenario tomorrow is an inch and it looks like 2-3" possible Tuesday. I'd be happy with that, but it would still be a long way to go to normal snowfall.

All we would need from there would be a decent storm and a few nickel and dimers. It's far fetched but not impossible. We still have all of February and March.

[Hawkeye]

[Minny_Weather]

I'll take an inch tomorrow and run with it. If we get freezing rain instead I'm quitting weather.

[Grizzcoat]

Let's give it a chance. It fits the RDPS and 18Z GFS.  First real storm I have been able to follow it with real results-- one way or the other. 

 

[Tabitha]

 I'm quitting weather.

 

It is not a hobby anyone can quit...giving up smoking would be 100 times easier.

 

NNM (or is NMM?...always get that confused) and the 18z ICON only hope here for tonight.

[james1976]

hope this thing doesn't go any further south.

[bud2380]

Rap looks solid for my area so far. Seems on track with other models

[Hawkeye]

00z NAM on track, even a bit wetter again vs last run, 0.4" from nw through ec Iowa.

 

[james1976]

NAM gettin me back on the edge of the .4" qpf. Ratios are expected to be 15 or 20. DMX mentioned potential 1"/hr rates for a brief time.