Tom Posted February 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 All NAM models are consistent with a phased/strong storm. I think since the energy is onshore today near CA, as well as the northern piece, models digesting better data. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Def phased this run but I’m not agreeing or denying anything at this point. If we do get snow, then give me a phased/strong system with sick snowfall rates. Other than that, wind and heavy rain is alright with me. me no likey! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 All NAM models are consistent with a phased/strong storm. I think since the energy is in shore today near CA, as well as the northern piece, models digesting better data. Just give me that 0z NAM from yesterday. That would match my snowfall year to date in 24 hours. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Definitely some very strong dynamics on the Nam run. Thundersnow would not be out of the question for those closer to the low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Definitely some very strong dynamics on the Nam run. Thundersnow would not be out of the question for those closer to the low.Agree, heavy precipitation accompanied with 30-40mph sustained winds near the shore would be quite the scene. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Definitely some very strong dynamics on the Nam run. Thundersnow would not be out of the question for those closer to the low. Agree, heavy precipitation accompanied with 30-40mph sustained winds near the shore would be quite the scene. Them's some deep, deep blues in SWMI - wowzers 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 For my Chi-town bro's Pound-town! Verbatim, a Thursday evening thumper over my way.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 @ Tom 12km loop = Thurs evening thumper (993mb SLP kinda hesitates in NIN before shooting east) Iirc, this system in the LRC back in Oct (10/11) did the same thing! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Agree, heavy precipitation accompanied with 30-40mph sustained winds near the shore would be quite the scene. 3km snowfall 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 27, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 3km snowfall 20180227 12z NAM-3km snow map.pngWeenie run right there! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Kuchera is probably still over done verbatim. take a look at thermals http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018022712/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 NAM, ICON, and GFS, this morning, are at least bringing back a light to moderate rain event around here, plus wind. The northern wave just won't be digging enough, early enough, to wind up a biggie this far west. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Kuchera is probably still over done verbatim. take a look at thermals http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2018022712/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png Kuchy fails me more in the colder set-ups when it insists on fluffing up totals via ratios while not taking into account tiny flake size/poor dendrites. It seems to do much better imho with low-ratio events. Verbatim as depicted, this would end up similar to the 11-29-11 thumper that hit mby with 8.5" in just over 4 hrs. Concrete stuff that caused a ton of power outages in the greater Marshall area Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Kuchy fails me more in the colder set-ups when it insists on fluffing up totals via ratios while not taking into account tiny flake size/poor dendrites. It seems to do much better imho with low-ratio events. Verbatim as depicted, this would end up similar to the 11-29-11 thumper that hit mby with 8.5" in just over 4 hrs. Concrete stuff that caused a ton of power outages in the greater Marshall areaLook at thermals. There is pinging Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 12z UK is the weakest, yet, showing almost no precip at all along I-80 from Iowa to Chicago. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Look at thermals. There is pinging Shoulda just said P-type issues, then I woulda understood what you meant. On something with a classic RN->SN via dynamic cooling, at least over here, we either get-er-done, or we don't. Rarely is a mix-fest in the cards on the margins of winter (front or back). We save all that mix stuff for prime winter months. I'd call it the Lakes Affect. You guys further west that don't deal with the moderating effects of the GL's have a different scenario for better or worse Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 12z UK is the weakest, yet, showing almost no precip at all along I-80 from Iowa to Chicago. Does that model ever get amped? Seems to be the least likely of all to do so. It's like a watered-down Euro EDIT- and by that, I'm not saying it's wrong, but it tends to balance the often over-amped NAM imho Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 12z Euro Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Euro's in love with CLE to Erie - dang Nice hit for Tom's place as well. Me, I'm looking for 1.6" and that can be +SLOP on my deck ftw Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Nam crushes Chicago into MI http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022718&fh=51&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Nam crushes Chicago into MI http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022718&fh=51&r=us_mw&dpdt=Inside of two days either the biggest coup ever or biggest troll job ever. Little more phasing make a huge difference with this one 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Inside of two days either the biggest coup ever or biggest troll job ever. Little more phasing make a huge difference with this oneWhen will this fully be sampled? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 When will this fully be sampled?Was pretty close to at 12z. Almost fully onshore tonight 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Nam crushes Chicago into MI http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022718&fh=51&r=us_mw&dpdt=Go BIG or go home as they say. If this actually happened with the crazy snowfall rates and the wind then it would be nuts around here. I do expect that that there will be thundersnow with this system as the dynamics are there. Will see what the 0z modeling shows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Nam crushes Chicago into MI http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022718&fh=51&r=us_mw&dpdt= Again, the 3km bodes better for those of us on the southern fringe: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022718&fh=51&r=us_mw&dpdt= Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Per Hoosier: "I may be forgetting something, but from a wet snow and wind perspective, the only other storm I can think of in the past 20 years that even remotely resembles what the NAM is advertising in the LOT cwa is 3/9/98. And that one was more of a city/south storm, with biggest impacts in northwest Indiana. The 18z NAM would surpass what that 1998 storm did. This would be an entirely different beast from the GHD storms with major power outage concerns." Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Again, the 3km bodes better for those of us on the southern fringe: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022718&fh=51&r=us_mw&dpdt= Will add here that every time we've had these long warm interludes during this cold season, they've ended very abruptly, and usually with something dynamic and snowy. So, this would continue that theme imho Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Gfs coming in stronger Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Actually way stronger 995 L in the south side of LM at 45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018022718&fh=48 990 in SW MI It’s just a tad warmer than the nam so a lot of the precip is rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018022718&fh=48 990 in SW MI It’s just a tad warmer than the nam so a lot of the precip is rainThe warmth is a GFS bias. RC on Amwx said that the GFS especially tends to not handle dynamic cooling well and as such has rain falling in some places where it would be snow. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 2.2 QPF in SE WI on the 18z gfs 3.1 qpf on the nam http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=qpf_acc&rh=2018022718&fh=66&r=us_mw&dpdt= Hopefully 0z runs we start seeing the models come together I also saw that over half the ensembles on the euro had much higher frozen qpf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 GFS will be to warm north and west of the low Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 This is one hell of a nail biter, specially when the rest of my snowboarding season depends on this. If this dumps some good snow and it cools off, I might make it to St Patrick's Day weekend. GEM 12z completely cut out the snow for me, I thought this was all going downhill pretty fast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Silly NAM. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018022718/069/sn10_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Not surprising but big shift nw on the gfs ensembles Few take the low into WI (990 or lower) https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=lowlocs&runtime=2018022718&fh=42 24 HR precip map https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2018022718&fh=54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 LOT: Severalfactors will support less of a snow threat locally on Thursday thanpreviously had been anticipated as a possibility. These include themore progressive nature of this system, the track of the 850 lownearly overhead, and the movement of the surface low just south ofthe CWA. Another factor is the later and more downstream deepeningof this system from phasing of energy between the northern andsouthern streams, when the left exit region and ageostrophicdivergence aloft become better aligned with the position of thesurface low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Kuchera probably isn't the best method to use for a storm that will hover around freezing. the standard is more like it. On another note, the NAM i was surprised to see gives us some snow as well tomorrow and is quite a bit colder. Some gfs ensembles also came back way west over us as well. Definitely think it doesn't turn into much but we shall see Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 27, 2018 Report Share Posted February 27, 2018 Kuchera probably isn't the best method to use for a storm that will hover around freezing. the standard is more like it. On another note, the NAM i was surprised to see gives us some snow as well tomorrow and is quite a bit colder. Some gfs ensembles also came back way west over us as well. Definitely think it doesn't turn into much but we shall seeyou realize that kuchera is showing less than 10:1 in this case and as such is a better measure? If it were showing 12-15:1 ratios, that'd be one thing. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 28, 2018 Report Share Posted February 28, 2018 if that Kuchera model comes to fruition I can only imagine the devastation that snow would bring to those parts the sheer weight of that type of snow would be crazy...Power lines snapping roofs caving....its not going to be pretty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.