Feb 28th - March 2nd Storm System

[CentralNebWeather]

Been awhile since we have gotten one of our big March snowstorms.  The next 2 weekends are girls then boys state basketball tournaments in Lincoln.  One of those weekends usually attracts some type of storminess.  

[hlcater]

Took a glimpse at some EPS members, still a very wide array of solutions on the table. A good number of them show snow across some part of Iowa, and in general are still much further north(and snowier) than the entire 12z suite. Perhaps they are more phased, but the EPS info I have is limited.

[St Paul Storm]

Agree, whats up with that???  Well, I guess it will continue to snow where it has been of late at the MSP magnet.

Nope. You can have it. I’m supposed to be landing at MSP at that time. I’ll pass on this one.

[Money]

Lol nam is even worse than the 12z

[gosaints]

Lol nam is even worse than the 12z

You mean to tell me this isnt impressive?

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018022618/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tony]

You mean to tell me this isnt impressive?

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018022618/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Carbon copy of the Euro

[Money]

18z icon comes in more phased and has s 993 L just south of Chicago

[hlcater]

18z GFS is in line with the 12z.

[Money]

18z GFS is in line with the 12z.

Stronger/north

[hlcater]

Stronger/north

Good. I was hoping by posting that I could pull some model reverse psychology, because whenever I make a call on what a model is going to do, I end up wrong. Although the difference between the runs is only 25-30 miles

[Money]

Good. I was hoping by posting that I could pull some model reverse psychology, because whenever I make a call on what a model is going to do, I end up wrong. Although the difference between the runs is only 25-30 miles

Baby steps back maybe?

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018022618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=075

[Money]

Gfs

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022618&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=

 

One county with 12+ lol

[jaster220]

Noticed this evening that the early bulb flowers on my street are up, some already 2-3"

 

Not feeling too gung-ho that we're looking at a big event here. Could see a 2-4, 3-6" deal as realistic tho, especially if it falls at night.

 

The truly strong storms (legit bliz warned) have been way east, or way west. Once again, this middle region has been the dearth zone for dynamic storms.

[Money]

Lol nam is going way north now

[Money]

20+ inches in WI this run

[MKEstorm]

[hlcater]

20+ inches in WI this run

How'd you like the NAM?

[hlcater]

For posterity. Keep in mind this falls in less than 24 hours. Insanity.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018022700/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Money]

LOL

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022700&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[gosaints]

LOL

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022700&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=

Imagine the reaction if this was over Omaha and then went away....

[hlcater]

Imagine the reaction if this was over Omaha and then went away....

OMADOME?

[Tony]

LOL

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022700&fh=84&r=us_mw&dpdt=

From basically nothing to 36"...seems reasonable to me.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

This storm is so full of lol. Just dont have a good feeling about this measuring up to much sorry

[gosaints]

This storm is so full of s**t lol. Just dont have a good feeling about this measuring up to much sorry

Suprising

[Bryan1117]

This storm is so full of s**t lol. Just dont have a good feeling about this measuring up to much sorry

Enjoy the spring-like weather Craig... I think it's time to give up on anything decent happening or a big storm around here this Winter season. Something about this weather pattern just doesn't give me a good feeling that we will see much snow in March.

 

However I think severe weather season will be very active around here, especially in April, May and June. I am done with Winter, for all intensive purposes.  

[gimmesnow]

These models are all over, anything can happen. I just hope for 3+ inches of wet snow somewhere south of madison to milwaukee. The ski hill was looking really sad today. They are doing their best, but when you come home from snowboarding and you have wet feet, it's super depressing and you know it's almost over.

 

Regardless, this one is fun. It really is all over the place. I guess what's happening in the atmosphere doesn't happen very often, and it's confusing the models pretty good. If we could get some snow and work our way back into the 30s for highs for a week or two, I'd be really happy. The ski hill, I had a ton of fun today, but it's basically mashed potatoes on top of ice, with water in places.

[Bryan1117]

Been awhile since we have gotten one of our big March snowstorms.  The next 2 weekends are girls then boys state basketball tournaments in Lincoln.  One of those weekends usually attracts some type of storminess.  

It really does seem like it has been forever since we have had a decent March snowstorm around here. In the 90's and early 2000's, it seemed like almost every year brought a massive blizzard or at least a solid dumping of snow across most of the state of Nebraska during the month of March. For the Omaha area it's been since March 10th, 2013 (the city received 9 inches of snow from that system) since we have had anything decent snow-wise in March.  

[gabel23]

It really does seem like it has been forever since we have had a decent March snowstorm around here. In the 90's and early 2000's, it seemed like almost every year brought a massive blizzard or at least a solid dumping of snow across most of the state of Nebraska during the month of March. For the Omaha area it's been since March 10th, 2013 (the city received 9 inches of snow from that system) since we have had anything decent snow-wise in March.  

This one 12 years ago was insane. 

[CentralNebWeather]

This one 12 years ago was insane.

Nice find. Almost forgot about that storm. Very slow moving storm, lasted almost 2 days. It was over 20 inches here. So blizzards have happened this century. It did seem like in the 80’s and 90’s we had a big one every March. I will have to find information on the back to back blizzards of late March 1987 and post it.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

When your not in a bullseye of a storm, your not watching the models through rose colored glasses and being all pissed if snow misses you on a model run. You can just think more clearly if you were never in the bullseye to begin with. The fact is, no one in the Plains has a shot at seeing anything measurable unless you live in central Wisconsin or Michigan. 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Just not enough cold air. Maybe next week we can all get our shot...

[Money]

Gfs

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018022700&fh=126&r=us_mw&dpdt=

[james1976]

When your not in a bullseye of a storm, your not watching the models through rose colored glasses and being all pissed if snow misses you on a model run. You can just think more clearly if you were never in the bullseye to begin with. The fact is, no one in the Plains has a shot at seeing anything measurable unless you live in central Wisconsin or Michigan.

Why C WI or MI? Models are all over the place.

[Tom]

It's been rather comical how badly the models have handled this storm system.  Latest runs remove any chance of snow around here and move up north into C WI/C MI.  TBH, after today's low 60's, I don't how much I want to see any more snow for the season.  It would have been neat to see those heavier snow fall totals the Euro was spitting out yesterday but that is not happening any longer. 

[james1976]

Yeah i hear ya. 50s and sun over here is getting me amped for spring.

[jaster220]

It's been rather comical how badly the models have handled this storm system.  Latest runs remove any chance of snow around here and move up north into C WI/C MI.  TBH, after today's low 60's, I don't how much I want to see any more snow for the season.  It would have been neat to see those heavier snow fall totals the Euro was spitting out yesterday but that is not happening any longer. 

 

Yeah, I'm torn wrt more winter vs nice spring wx. I need just 1.6" to reach 5 ft on the season tho, so I'd gladly that much if I can score it. Then anything later on (the usual nuisance dustings on my deck) will be stat padding stuff

[Tom]

12z NAM back south with a strong 994mb in C IL...geeze, how many more times we see massive shifts???

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

 

By Thursday evening, a fast-moving northern stream impulse diving
southeast from the northern Plains will interact with the southern
stream energy. There remains some uncertainty as to how this
interaction will occur, but guidance is trending towards a phased
solution as the northern stream impulse carves out a potent
shortwave trough that will become increasingly negatively-tilted by
Thursday evening. PV analysis reveals an interesting interplay
between the northern and southern stream as phasing occurs in
vicinity of southeast Michigan amidst a tropopause fold.

Where this phasing exactly occurs will be critical to the Thursday
evening and early night forecast, as the surface low exits to the
southeast with colder air rapidly rushing in across the region. The
colder air will lead to a quick transition from rain to snow, with
confidence beginning to increase in widespread accumulations. Exact
amounts remain uncertain at this time, as the boundary layer will be
slow to cool although may be counteracted by the impressive
dynamical cooling overspreading the region.

[Tony]

12z NAM back south with a strong 994mb in C IL...geeze, how many more times we see massive shifts???

Phase or no phase...models are so lost with this.

[Tom]

Phase or no phase...models are so lost with this.

Def phased this run but I’m not agreeing or denying anything at this point. If we do get snow, then give me a phased/strong system with sick snowfall rates. Other than that, wind and heavy rain is alright with me.