Tom Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Let’s do it. It would get MSP to 50” officially on the season and ensure a ‘normal’ annual total for the first time since 2013-14.I think your going to see more snow in April the way things are trending over the next 2-3 weeks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 the NAM remains further north and much stronger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 the NAM remains further north and much stronger. Yep, sticking with a Decorah to Dubuque band of snow. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Here are some maps from the 00z EPS...some pretty big hits... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Hawkeye, what's with the snow depth change maps and not the accumulation maps like Kuchera? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Here are some maps from the 00z EPS...some pretty big hits... Can we put that map over iowa? I didn't even know there were any snow chances for yesterday. Been busy following severe wx as of late, even though none of the events were particularly noteworthy. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Canadian is a bit further NE than the GFS, ICON remains further SW than the other models. Ukie up next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Hawkeye, what's with the snow depth change maps and not the accumulation maps like Kuchera? Tropical Tidbits doesn't have any kuchera maps. It only has 10:1 maps and the snow depth change maps. I figure in this case the snow depth map would be a better representation of actually amounts as it seems to cut down on the bogus totals. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 This system will have some pretty heavy snowfall rates and should be some surprise totals when its all said and done. GFS is no longer shearing this out and models are expanding the precip field farther north with each run. I believe we will see the models become wetter again with each run as we are in March now and there is plenty of available moisture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Wish i was gonna be home! Im sure my backyard will get dumped on now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 There should be some decent power outage potential given the wet snow and gusts maybe in the 30-40 mph range. Obviously if higher end amounts like the Canadian pan out, that is going to be an enormous problem for the power grid. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 impossible to tell for sure ptypes on this map, but UK looks further SW. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Does Hawkeyes still have those nice Ukie precip maps? Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 850s plenty cold enough on the UK for snow. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_072_0850.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Canadian with 20" over Clinton, IA. If that happens, I'll drive to Clinton just to witness this. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018032112/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Does Hawkeyes still have those nice Ukie precip maps? Only difference vs the last run is the current run dialed back the overall precip intensity. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 I continue to be directly on the cutoff line here. I need a 30-50 miles shift further west or SW. As it stands it looks like I could get a couple inches, but just miss out on the 6"+ totals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 The only change from the 12z euro is something a few other models have also shown this morning.... a lessening of the rain totals in the sw part of the band. If only this thing could sag one more county southwestward. This could end up dumping several inches just barely northeast of Cedar Rapids, while CR itself gets a sloppy inch. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 one more county SW would be perfect. We're still 60 hours out so plenty of time for some wobbling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 30 more counties NE will be perfect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 30 more counties NE will be perfect You drunk or just a typo?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buzzman289 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Both bud and hawkeye would be fine with those maps, just panicking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Im gonna get a foot just cuz i wont be home Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just need a little more wobble north to be in the game...consider it done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 GEOS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 GEOS I'm coming back for a visit for an early Easter with my family. I've been eyeing this system for about 3 days now. Will be interesting watching it unfold. Luckily I won't be flying into O'hare on Saturday during this. 3 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 I'm coming back for a visit for an early Easter with my family. I've been eyeing this system for about 3 days now. Will be interesting watching it unfold. Luckily I won't be flying into O'hare on Saturday during this.What you been up to bud? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 I'm coming back for a visit for an early Easter with my family. I've been eyeing this system for about 3 days now. Will be interesting watching it unfold. Luckily I won't be flying into O'hare on Saturday during this.Welcome back to the forum...your magnet has been missed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 12z EPS...did nudge north a bit.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 I'm coming back for a visit for an early Easter with my family. I've been eyeing this system for about 3 days now. Will be interesting watching it unfold. Luckily I won't be flying into O'hare on Saturday during this. Welcome back to the forum...your magnet has been missed! Can say that again! Wish he'd come at Christmas and dropped it off @ Tom's place for safe keeping. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 12z EPS... 12z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 I'm coming back for a visit for an early Easter with my family. I've been eyeing this system for about 3 days now. Will be interesting watching it unfold. Luckily I won't be flying into O'hare on Saturday during this.How has the west coast been treating ya? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 What you been up to bud? Welcome back to the forum...your magnet has been missed! I never left the forum. I just in the west subforum since I live in that region now. Work brought me out here. Can say that again! Wish he'd come at Christmas and dropped it off @ Tom's place for safe keeping. Lol. Yeah I guess you could have used it then. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 How has the west coast been treating ya? Just fine. Climate is nice except I don't see snow at my feet where I live too much. I have to travel 30-45 minutes to see appreciable amounts. Taken up snowboarding since I've been here the last year and a half. It does suck that there isn't many thunderstorms here outside of the mountains. The microclimates from one location to another are fascinating though. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 I guess this thing is trending a little northeast? Or is it too early to tell if it is just model wobbles. Those are some really impressive totals in the Quad Cities area down towards Champaign. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 NWS DVN has updated the point forecasts. Calling for 2" for my area. 4" for Cedar Rapids. 6" for areas northeast of CR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 I guess this thing is trending a little northeast? Or is it too early to tell if it is just model wobbles. Those are some really impressive totals in the Quad Cities area down towards Champaign.I'd rather be on the northern end of the snow maps than on the southern end. If this system is as strong as progged, then I'd say there is room for a tick north. This system has that feel of a juiced up Alberta-like clipper in late March! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Nice wording from LOT: Guidance also signaling the potential for strong mesoscale forcingas a sloped region of strong F-gen overspreads portions of the CWAtopped by a region of negative EPV and steep mid/upper levellapse rates which will allow for a deep vertical response to theforcing. The combination of strong forcing and instability willset the stage for heavy snowfall rates, which will likely be inthe form of large aggregates at times as soundings show a deepregion of saturation cutting across a broad temperature range. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 21, 2018 Report Share Posted March 21, 2018 Winter Storm watches issued for parts of North Dakota and far western MN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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