St Paul Storm Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Interesting cross section from tropicaltidbits visualizing exactly what is at fault for the extreme cutoff on the NE edge. That’s good stuff right there. Thanks for posting this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Biggest storm of the season and ill be out of state.#Pissed 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1521775589746 Marginal risk issued. Let's hope nothing severe actually does happen as I'll be in Texas and missing it. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 00z ICON and RGEM both shifted south. Neither of them gets any precip past Dubuque. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 GFS looks solid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Oh RGEM just with 17” for Iowa City. NBD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 This has been an absolutely brutal Winter for cutoffs. I feel for the CR and Twin Cities people on here cuz we had the exact same issue in Lincoln all throughout January and February and we always got the sore end of the deal. Hope this works out for you all! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 CR folks have to like the trend from the evening models. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 CR folks have to like the trend from the evening models.What is your guess for CR snow total? I’m going towards lower end of things and I think 3-4 seems likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Canadian blasts CR as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 What is your guess for CR snow total? I’m going towards lower end of things and I think 3-4 seems likely. I've been saying a sloppy 1-2", but if the UK and Euro come in the same or sw I may have to up it. Our area is right on the line, so a degree or two difference in column temp would be a big deal. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 I think 3-6” for Johnson county. Maybe 5-8” for Linn. With this heavy wet snow it can take awhile to accumulate bit of snow rates are as high as indicated it will start to pile up. And the heaviest snow should fall in the AM hours which gives a better chance to stick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 00z UK, only slight changes.... a bit wetter overall, west end of band a bit south, east end a bit north, no change in Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Hard to ignore runs this evening. Looking forward to morning AFD's. I imagine most of E IA will be upgraded to Warning. Maybe some of these higher totals will verify after all.30+ wind gusts are gonna plaster snow to everything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 00z Euro coming in even farther sw. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Wow, Dubuque gets nothing this run. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Wow. I’d say. Significant jump SW. Iowa City and CR right in the cross hairs now. This is such a narrow band though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 00z euro..... wow, big jump sw, also stronger/wetter. I didn't think I'd have to get nervous about it trending too far sw. We still have a day of possible changes to go. I mean, Dubuque just went from 0.8" of precip to zero in one run. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 00z euro..... wow, big jump sw, also stronger/wetter. I didn't think I'd have to get nervous about it trending too far sw. We still have a day of possible changes to go. I mean, Dubuque just went from 0.8" of precip to zero in one run. ecmwf_acc_snow_iowa_48.pnglol give it a days worth of model runs and this baby will be in eastern neb before we know it! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 00z Euro ensemble mean also jumped sw. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 NWS issued a winter weather advisory for my county despite the euro showing 14”. Frankly I think I’ll be upgraded later. For Cedar Rapids they issued a winter storm warning calling for 6-10” with isolated 15”. Local news channel just said 3-6” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 If this system hit during the winter months, I'll be honest, it would hurt but given it is Spring I'll be just fine. Glad to see our E IA friends about to get smashed by a winter storm. I like DVN's write up and confirm the fact that Thundersnow is a good bet...Cantore, where are you??? Looks like they upped totals to 6-12"+ in spots. .LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018Extremely dynamic, strong, early spring winter storm, a verychallenging forecast tonight and Saturday with heavy snow acertainty with exact locations still an issue.Long Term Forecast Assessment...average to below average with nearto below average confidence due to very strong evaporative coolingexpected to occur with this storm. This will likely make manylocations snow totals off by 3 plus inches depending on snowchangeover. Thunder-snow very likely with accumulation rates wellover an inch an hour at times. Heavy snowfall rates will also resulton snow covered and slushy roads with risk of heavier snow accessmaybe 30 plus miles further south for later shift to reassess.Tonight...bands of rain to mix with and change to snow over most ofthe northern 1/2 or more of the region in the evening hours. Asmentioned above, the locations for heavy snow will be a majorchallenge with large dendritic growth in strong forcing and thunder-snow almost guaranteed up to I-80 suggested. Half dollar sizedflakes will be common with snowfall accumulation rates of a halfinch to well over an inch an hour. Locations along and north ofI-80 should have mostly 2 to 7 inches of snow by daybreak witheast winds of 20 to 30+ mph. Limited blowing snow suggested due tolow snow ratios of 7 to 10 to 1. Mins tonight around 30F north toupper 30s far south.Saturday...Snow line to slide further south with evaporative coolingcontinued heavy snow rates and again risk of thunder-snow into latemorning hours. Additional snow totals of 2 to 6 inches suggested,mostly before 3 PM. Again gusty easterly winds of 20 to 30+ mph andsome drifting of heavy wet snow to be likely with roads poor due tointense snowfall rates of slush and snow. Very possible the highway34 corridor in Iowa and south may need at least an advisory forlater shifts to monitor. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s withroads likely improving with diminishing snow by late afternoon.Forcing tools suggest widespread 6 to 12 inches of snow in warninglocations with isolated 12 plus inches a real possibility. Theheaviest snow axis is currently suggested to be betweenIndependence Iowa to Clinton Iowa to Princeton but local forcingtools again with strong evaporative cooling suggest this axiscould move further south by 30 miles or maybe even more. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 It’s stil American models vs. the world. Gfs and nam remain much futher northeast than Canadian Euro and UK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 At least the NWS acknowledges they may need to shift the forecast further south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 6z CMC just blasts my area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 6z CMC just blasts my area. FDF6D2D9-5B45-4A36-8C7B-4AC45F94D43E.jpegI like where you sit Bud, as well as, Haweye and the rest of you in E IA. Finally, the IA "Low Magnet" is delivering the goods... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 I’m glad this is going to miss by more than one county. Grids down to less than 0.5” of snow. Good luck Iowa peeps! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Euro with over a foot for me. Just wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Holy cow the overnight model runs are extremely juiced and DVN has me pegged at 10?!?! inches. It’s becomjng apparent that whoever is under that band is going to get absolutely ripped on. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 The NAM finally joining the party and moving the southern edge further south. It's still further north than the Euro, Canadian, and UK, but better than the 6z and 00z runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 E IA crush job in the works...I could see records being broken...why not??? Some spots will catapult towards seasonal norms if those higher totals do in fact materialize. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 NAm shows 1.7" qpf for Iowa City and 13" of snow. The largest storm I have recorded since I moved to North Liberty in 2004 was 12", which happened two or three times (i'd have to check my records). So if we got 13" it would be a new record for me. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018032312/033/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Thundersnow signal baby...this will be a solid 12-14+ hour snow event with 1-2"/hr snowfall rates one can come to a conclusion that those 8-10"+ totals are looking like a good bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 12z HRRRx coming in south as well. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 The regular HRRR has a bullseye over Iowa City already. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018032313/017/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 I can't find a total precip/snowfall map for the HRRRx, but the 12z loop on Tropical Tidbits is perfect for Cedar Rapids. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Gosh, if we had some warm air to work with I feel like this would be a major severe wx producer over here. Too bad we're not supposed to reach 60 today. Oh well, HRRR shows some good spring thunderstorms tonight moving through, can't complain about that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 RGEM is looking good through 21 hours so far on Pivotal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 The last time we had a decent March snowstorm was March 28, 2009. I don’t remember how much snow I got from that but most of it melted the next day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 23, 2018 Report Share Posted March 23, 2018 Good lord, RGEM.... http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018032312/039/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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