April Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

We will see. You have a cold bias so it's understandable you are downplaying it's significance.

I try my best to have a reality bias.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Careful. You're talking to the guy who called this ridging weeks ago, based on a lethal combination of gut feeling, sweaty armpits, and TWC app.

You forgot about my nutsack. Whenever it starts sagging more than usual, then I know hot weather is coming. Vice versa on cold weather, it practically retracts inside my body.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Dragon ENERGY is helping me through the day! Thanks Kanye and DJT!

[Deweydog]

I try my best to have a reality bias.

79 sounds good for yesterday.❄❄❄

[Jesse]

79 sounds good for yesterday.❄❄❄

Jesse!!!!!!!

[Phil]

We will see. You have a cold bias so it's understandable you are downplaying it's significance.

I’m not sure you should be lecturing others on “biases”.

 

We all have them. Sometimes we’re not even aware we have them. For example, I (apparently) have a cold June bias. At least according to Flatiron. Whether it’s true or not, the possibility of such a thing hadn’t crossed my mind until an hour ago.

[MossMan]

The sun just popped out for a moment! Nice day!

[Jesse]

The sun just popped out for a moment! Nice day!

 

At the new house or the family lake house?

[TT-SEA]

Interesting that the edge of the low clouds has been hanging almost in the exact same spot near Lake Samish. Hanging at 58 in Bothell here.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/wfo/sew/vis.jpg

Very common... seen it many times. Like there is some invisible wall there.

[Geos]

Cool camera view of the edge of the marine layer in between Oso and Darrington.

 

 

Sun is out along the Hood Canal now.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I try my best to have a reality bias.

I try my best as well but sometimes you have to go with your gut feeling. In real life my gut feeling has saved me on numerous situations.

[Jesse]

Very common... seen it many times. Like there is some invisible wall there.

 

They are called the Chuckanut Mountains.

[TT-SEA]

They are called the Chuckanut Mountains.

They run straight across the Sound too?

[MossMan]

At the new house or the family lake house?

The lake house. We don’t get the keys to the new house until next Friday so we are staying at the lake in the mean time. Breezy southerly winds have picked up over the last hour.

[Jesse]

They run straight across the Sound too?

 

Yes, and soundly across the Strait.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I’m not sure you should be lecturing others on “biases”.

 

We all have them. Sometimes we’re not even aware we have them. For example, I (apparently) have a cold June bias. At least according to Flatiron. Whether it’s true or not, the possibility of such a thing hadn’t crossed my mind until an hour ago.

Everybody has weather bias. I have a cold bias in the winter time and a warm bias in the spring and summer. You seem to have a cold bias year round from my perspective. Nothing wrong with that, it's normal.

 

I'm not lecturing anybody. Honestly Phil you and other people take things way too seriously on here sometimes. It's laughable but I understand you are really passionate about weather. However if it goes to the point where it boils your blood it's not healthy. Also who cares what people think of you or what you write. You don't need the approval of others in life to be successful at what you do.

[Phil]

I try my best as well but sometimes you have to go with your gut feeling. In real life my gut feeling has saved me on numerous situations.

FWIW, Jesse won the summer temperature anomaly forecast last year. IIRC, you came in 3rd, and I finished second to last (lol).

 

Speaking of which, would you guys want to do that again this year? I think it’s a pretty fun contest.

[TT-SEA]

Yes, and soundly across the Strait.

It's a strange phenomenon... the low clouds should be able to keep oozing northward. Strong south wind at BLI all day as usual with this set up too.

[Jesse]

It's a strange phenomenon... the low clouds should be able to keep oozing northward. Strong south wind a BLI all day as usual with this set up too.

 

I think the topography to the south of town does play a role. Probably other factors enhancing that, though. 

[Geos]

It's a strange phenomenon... the low clouds should be able to keep oozing northward. Strong south wind at BLI all day as usual with this set up too.

 

Must have something to do with the atmosphere mixing more as the marine air mass pushes up towards the border.

 

And what Jesse just mentioned^

[Geos]

Wow, the sun is actually coming out here. Might make 60 yet. 

[Jesse]

PDX is 32 degrees lower than where they were yesterday at this time.

 

85 to 53. Pretty impressive.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW, Jesse won the summer temperature anomaly forecast last year. IIRC, you came in 3rd, and I finished second to last (lol).

 

Speaking of which, would you guys want to do that again this year? I think it’s a pretty fun contest.

I don't think I played last year but not totally sure about that. Maybe I did.

 

I'll play this year for sure. Right now I think I got a really good feel on how this summer is going to play out.

[jcmcgaffey]

A recap:

 

-Second warmest January on record in 2018.

 

-Record warmest February set in 2015 then broken in 2016.

 

-Record warm March in 2015.

 

-Record warm April in 2016.

 

-Second warmest May on record in 2016.

 

-Warmest June on record (by nearly 3 degrees) in 2015.

 

-Second warmest July on record in 2015. Fifth warmest in 2014.

 

-Warmest August on record in 2017, second warmest in 2014, fourth warmest in 2015.

 

-Warmest September on record in 2014.

 

-2014 and 2015 tying for warmest October on record.

 

-Warmest November on record in 2016.

 

-Fifth warmest December on record in 2014.

Wow that is crazy.

[James Jones]

Very common... seen it many times. Like there is some invisible wall there.

 

The 18z looks cooler and wetter. Thank God. Things are getting very dire down here in Oregon, looks like a tinderbox out there. This relief is just temporary though, we're going to be in some serious trouble without a July 1993 repeat.

[Jesse]

18z looks much more normal for early May.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A recap:

 

-Second warmest January on record in 2018.

 

-Record warmest February set in 2015 then broken in 2016.

 

-Record warm March in 2015.

 

-Record warm April in 2016.

 

-Second warmest May on record in 2016.

 

-Warmest June on record (by nearly 3 degrees) in 2015.

 

-Second warmest July on record in 2015. Fifth warmest in 2014.

 

-Warmest August on record in 2017, second warmest in 2014, fourth warmest in 2015.

 

-Warmest September on record in 2014.

 

-2014 and 2015 tying for warmest October on record.

 

-Warmest November on record in 2016.

 

-Fifth warmest December on record in 2014.

 

This is why I worry that our lowland snowstorms will be a thing of the past pretty quickly.

[Farmboy]

18z looks much more normal for early May.

 

As is the case with our winter weather, normal sucks.

[Jesse]

As is the case with our winter weather, normal sucks.

Well you should be happy then. As those updated monthly rankings show, the weather around here has been anything but normal the past four years.

[Farmboy]

Well you should be happy then. As those updated monthly rankings show, the weather around here has been anything but normal the past four years.

 

 

Well, it would be nice to rack a warmest May on record this year....

[Jesse]

Well, it would be nice to rack a warmest May on record this year....

Seems reasonable.

[Farmboy]

Seems reasonable.

 

The record will crack eventually, why not get that monkey off our backs now, instead of delaying the inevitable....

[Jesse]

The record will crack eventually, why not get that monkey off our backs now, instead of delaying the inevitable....

Same could be said for record wettest May.

[TT-SEA]

Same could be said for record wettest May.

 

Very unlikely in the Seattle area.

 

The wettest April is usually not followed by the wettest May. 

[Jesse]

Very unlikely in the Seattle area.

 

The wettest April is usually not followed by the wettest May.

Might as well get it off our backs. It’s bound to be broken sooner or later.

 

#airtightlogic

 

#scratchthat,watertightlogic

[TT-SEA]

PDX is 32 degrees lower than where they were yesterday at this time.

 

85 to 53. Pretty impressive.

 

 

That is just about as impressive as it gets actually.  

[Jesse]

That is just about as impressive as it gets actually.

They spiked to 58 at some point between hourly readings because they are PDX, but still an impressive crash.

[Front Ranger]

Very unlikely in the Seattle area.

 

The wettest April is usually not followed by the wettest May. 

 

It hasn't been the wettest April for the Seattle area, just for some unofficial little station near you.

 

SEA is still over 1" shy of the record.

[BLI snowman]

Wettest April since 2017 here. Fairly epic.

[Front Ranger]

This April will pull off the rare feat of featuring more rain than Feb/Mar combined many places. That's only happened 1 or 2 other times for most stations.

 

But still had a lengthy dry spell, unlike most other wet Aprils.