3/11 - 3/12 Winter Storm

[DominicR]

Hail in Naperville.

[DominicR]

All ORD needs is over 6 inches to break for 2nd place. I think will do that officially when all done unless we can get another decent snowstorm to shatter the record.

[Sciascia]

Rain/sleet over here.

[6789]

I just don't see how this will fill in fast enough to get any where near 6" lol.

[Geos]

The radar doesn't remind me of a winter storm really. Look more like a frontal boundary in mid to late spring actually. haha

[midwest buildit]

not sure how accurate this is.

 

 

[Sciascia]

Alrighty, now guys on American are officially going for a dusting at O'Hare. Hope for an inch just because I hate the word "dab." Lol

[DominicR]

Alrighty. Now guys on American are officially going for a dusting at O'Hare. Hope for an inch just because I hate the word "dab." Lol

 

They need to relax and give it a little more time before we call it a end here.

[Sciascia]

They need to relax and give it a little more time before we call it a end here.

 

 

Chicago Storm: Call from a few days back is locked and loaded...DAB for ORD.

 

 

A-L-E-K: yep....razor gradient advertised by the HRRR materializing...going to be about 10 miles too far north here as well.

 

They seem like they've been waiting for an opportunity to have their super early predictions end up being correct. So they won't relax. And since they're two of the loudest voices there, they'll probably push down any opposite information anyone may eventually gather too.

[6789]

.DISCUSSION...

905 PM CDT
 

NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH THE CURRENT HEADLINES. THE LOW PRESSURE

HAS PUSHED EAST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUES

TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TO NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION HAS TAKEN JUST A

LITTLE LONGER TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER LOCAL RADAR INDICATES SEVERAL

AREAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION SOME CONVECTION HAS

DEVELOPED THIS EVENING AS WELL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY

SOUTH OF I-88 IN NORTHERN IL. DUE TO THE LOW TOPPED NATURE OF

THESE THUNDERSTORMS...REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL

BEGIN TO FALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW A TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW

LATER THIS EVENING. ONE ITEM THAT HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR TONIGHT WAS

TO INCLUDE THE MENTION OF SLT CHC THUNDER FOR AREAS ALONG AND

SOUTH OF I-80 IN NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT

ONCE THE STEADY HEAVY SNOW GETS GOING...THAT GIVEN HOW UNSTABLE

THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS...THAT THUNDERSNOW MAY OCCUR IN A FEW

LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST IN...JUST SOUTH OF

CHICAGO.

[Tony]

ALEK was way off on the last storm and will prob be off on this as well. Way too early to make any calls either way.

[Geos]

Skilling saying 4-8" for the warning area and only 0.5-1.5" to the north and northwest suburbs.

[midwest buildit]

Big fat flakes mixing in with the rain here.

[6789]

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/index_loop.php

 

There maybe some back building starting to show up in far Western IA, and maybe even NE but it doesn't look that impressive in all honesty. We shall see I guess, I am going with 2-6" if anything. 

[East Dubzz]

Lightning strikes as of 10 PM:

[Geos]

HRRR

 

[abhidupage]

HRRR

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-14-0-28314200-1394593637.png

are the 01z maps out? On Cod website the sim reflectivity on 01z  run seems a bit more impressive for areas north aka northern cook/dupage

[Geos]

are the 01z maps out? On Cod website the sim reflectivity on 01z  run seems a bit more impressive for areas north aka northern cook/dupage

 

I can't see it yet.

 

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t7&run_time=12+Mar+2014+-+01Z

 

Getting sprinkles here now.

[Sciascia]

Mostly cold rain here. Maybe some slight mixing, but predominantly rain.

[6789]

HRRR

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-14-0-28314200-1394593637.png

I don't know seems a little off when it gets to the East coast only the 4-6" range when they are talking about 12"+ I do think it looks good for the Northern areas, I just don't see this working out for us this time. 

[Geos]

I don't know seems a little off when it gets to the East coast only the 4-6" range when they are talking about 12"+ I do think it looks good for the Northern areas, I just don't see this working out for us this time. 

 

That's because this only goes out to 15 hours.

 

Edit: -RN with a few wet snowflakes mixed in.

[DominicR]

To bad this is developing too late and more non-linear or this be a big dog.

[DominicR]

Goes to show you how uncertain it still is..

 

NBC Chicago:

Snow predictions are literally changing hour-by-hour. Get the latest forecast from Brant Miller, which includes some good news for the rest of the week -->

 

 

[East Dubzz]

are the 01z maps out? On Cod website the sim reflectivity on 01z  run seems a bit more impressive for areas north aka northern cook/dupage

Here is the 01z..

 

[DominicR]

Here is the 01z..

 

http://oi57.tinypic.com/200ziav.jpg

 

Nice. Right near 6 inch mark.

[Geos]

Razor sharp gradient across this county.

 

Some snow showing up now, but it's not going to last long. It's not sticking either.

[Sciascia]

As each hour passes, I continue to wonder how things will look in the morning. Not feeling too great right now; feeling like its gonna be one of those "woulda coulda shoulda" events.

[6789]

Final call before going to bed 1" at most North of I-88, 1-3" South of I-80. 

[Money]

Chicago still looking good for 4+ imo

 

I'll say 5.1

[Sciascia]

EDIT: Look below. Darn iPod posting too early.

[Sciascia]

Chicago still looking good for 4+ imo

 

I'll say 5.1

I threw out a 6.3 a few hours ago, but I've been waffling on that mentally. Would love to see either my number or yours pan out over here.

[Money]

02z HRRR has 6-10 amounts over Chicago metro. 3-4 in the northern suburbs. 

[Sciascia]

Puff balls. SN!

[Tom]

Starting to changeover here...looking at the radar, I think Lake/McHenery can manage to get 1-2".  N Cook will prob get 2-3", ORD 3-4"...anyone south of there should do pretty good with 5"+ totals.  This storm is moving very fast, should be outta hear by 6:00am.  Not an ideal setup for significant accumulations.  Temps are not dropping fast enough up this way to get any good accumulation.

[bainbridgekid]

Looks like fairly heavy snow at Wrigley.

 

Road is still wet but the sidewalk is solidly white.

 

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/wrigleyfield/?cam=wrigleyfield_hd

[Tom]

D**n, it's ripping in the city right now under that band.  I'm on the northern edge of that band but I see its drifting slowly northward so I should get in on that heavier snowfall.

[Tom]

Huge fatty flakes coming down now...

[midwest buildit]

This snow is exactly what someone on here wanted. Everthing is white. Trees ,bushes, sticking to everything already.

[abhidupage]

I could've sworn I just heard thunder in Dupage County twice now (no lightning tho)! Snow's really coming down probably going to be approaching the 2"/hr if it keeps up!

[Sciascia]

Looking at radar, kinda looks like the snow just keeps feeding in this direction. Not really seeing shifting north or south.