Tom Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 We are getting into the 48-60 hour period of a possible significant winter storm shaping up for the Midwest/Lower Lakes/OV. 18z NAM coming in very robust with snowfall. DTX may be very close to breaking their all-time snow fall record this season with this storm. There still is a lot of discrepancies between the models. The storm system hasn't been sampled yet by the balloon network so expect shifts on the storm track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 Wow go NAM. WPC EPDEXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1141 AM EDT SUN MAR 09 2014THE MODELS HAVE FINALLY CONVERGED ON THE TRACK OF THE COMPLEX WAVE CROSSING THE EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH ITS MOST MARKED SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT BEING A STRIPE OF HEAVY SNOW FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 I wasent paying much attention to this but just checked 12z GFS and it's pretty close. What is ORD record? 81 inches? I think we could break number 1 with this if I am not mistaken. We are at 75 inches and 3rd place right? Get mixed up with meterological and seasonal snowfall. I think seasonal would be 89 inches is record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 ORD is at 75.5" for the season and the record is 89.7" for the season. So Dom, we may be getting real close to breaking the all-time record if we can get a significant snowstorm out of this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 D**n back to 50 on Friday. Well if we get that snowcover it will probably be lower 40s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 ORD is at 75.5" for the season and the record is 89.7" for the season. So Dom, we may be getting real close to breaking the all-time record if we can get a significant snowstorm out of this one. Plenty of chances down the line yet. Especially if GFS is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 Phasing is going to be the key ingredient here and when it phases to produce these kind of totals the NAM is spitting out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 18z GFS weaker and farther south... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 18z rgem http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 D**n a buzz kill. Still a bit to go though. A more amped phased is key as Tom mentioned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 RGEM colored map http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Looks a TAD SE of the NAM but a bit more north than the 18z GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 RGEM also looks like it is trying to phase as well. Until this comes onshore, we wont get a definitive outcome. Still about 24+ hours to go until we see model solutions come into agreement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 major difference in models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 Phil Schwartz has the heavier snow east of us with most of us in the 1-4" range. I hate it when start forecasting amounts this far out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 Saw the same thing, had 10 inches down in Indianapolis. He was using the Euro model Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 RGEM at 54hr similar to NAM.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 EURO from Phil: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 The trend has been NW with a phased system earlier which amps up quicker. Would like to see more runs before jumping on board with the NAM's totals. As Money said, 12z Euro Ensembles were NW of OP run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 9, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 I would be absolutely delighted to see a solution the Euro had about 10 days out that I posted. It would make a lot of faces happy on this forum! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 I would be absolutely delighted to see a solution the Euro had about 10 days out that I posted. It would make a lot of faces happy on this forum! Except for the24weatherman! LOL! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 The trend has been NW with a phased system earlier which amps up quicker. Would like to see more runs before jumping on board with the NAM's totals. As Money said, 12z Euro Ensembles were NW of OP run.How many models have gone NW? If it's only the NAM & Euro ensembles, wouldn't call it a "trend" just yet. Although a NAM solution would be happiness. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted March 9, 2014 Report Share Posted March 9, 2014 RGEM at 54hr similar to NAM....I always thought the RGEM only went to 48 hours... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 I always thought the RGEM only went to 48 hours... I know same here. Just found that out today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 HPC probability of 4" and 6". 3 Day Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 according to abc 7 chicago weather that the heaviest will be south and east of the city of chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 according to abc 7 chicago weather that the heaviest will be south and east of the city of chicago. Yeah, it's gonna be 70 and sunny. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 21z SREF Plumes up to 6 for Chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 21z SREF Plumes up to 6 for Chicago.That's the mean, right? Just curious, what's the range? Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 NAM looking good still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Highest: 11.93Lowest: 0.02 Mean: 5.90 Majority are over 4 with about 6 of them showing less than 2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yeah, it's gonna be 70 and sunny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Even with the NAM being weaker/south still looks like 6+ coming this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 NAM is definitely further south. Still going to be a nice hit for Chicago and Detroit though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 00z NAM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 nam still looks good for me. ill take it !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Looks like the NAM will continue to correct south on future runs. A phased, more amped solution is still possible similar to the January 4th-5th storm which models didn't show a phase until less than 24 hours from the event. Still the more unlikely scenario and the Euro and the GFS most likely have the correct track with some slight north or south shifts still possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Looks like the NAM will continue to correct south on future runs. A phased, more amped solution is still possible similar to the January 4th-5th storm which models didn't show a phase until less than 24 hours from the event. Still the more unlikely scenario and the Euro and the GFS most likely have the correct track with some slight north or south shifts still possible. Well because it has on this run doesent mean it's gonna be trend. It's awfully close. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Yet another Chicago special. My guess is MAYBE an inch here. How many times has this happened this winter? A lot! Hopefully this comes north by about 50-100 miles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 Well because it has on this run doesent mean it's gonna be trend. It's awfully close.Very true, but we have all seen this before. NAM usually the 18Z shows a extreme amped solution and future runs start to correct south. If the 00Z GFS looks more like the NAM that will definitely be a good sign. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 10, 2014 Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 RGEM is farther NW than the NAM and about 4 MB stronger through HR 24. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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