PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

At Mossman's the question is...when isn't it? Lol. Randy you'd better take the day off to enjoy it haha. Is Stanwood on late start?

Closed! All the area schools are except Marysville which is 2hrs late. 

Edited February 28, 2023 by MossMan

[Perturbed Member]

33F and steady moderate snow here. Roofs, cars and grass starting to turn white again. 

[MikeInEverett]

Looks like it’s gonna expand south here in a little bit. Back to decent snowfall at my place after it got sloppy for a little bit! Starting to see some sprinkles/flurries here in Edmonds.

 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Seems like to me the lack of precipitation for the Seattle is to blame for this forecast bust. I think it was cold enough for snow given the DPs, but forecast models were calling for 1-3" and even higher at some locations with 2-4. 1/10 of precipitation equates to roughly ~1" of snow. For the overnight period, SEA picked up about 0.16-0.18" -- that should be good enough for about 2" had it been cold enough. 

BFI on the other hand picked up 0.11", should be good for about an 1"

I think this is was way less than what the models had picked up. 

It all came down to the track of the low... that deformation band over Randy was originally shown over King County.   But the low ended up farther north.  

[Winterdog]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

So glad for you since you've been also in the screw zone this winter.

Thank you!  I guess my complaining paid off.

[PuyallupChris]

Woke up to my kids telling me it snowed last night! They were not excited.

 

I’ve now reached official “shocked” status with how bad the models have been this year. For weeks now we’ve seen snow maps that defy logic, and time and time again I’ve seen “snowing now” reports from weather apps that are blatantly wrong. 
 

I’m a weenie because I’ve been skunked so much this year, but it’s pretty pathetic to model ride for a week and a half and get…this as a result.

[BurienSnowGlobe]

Icy precip in Central District 

[MossMan]

Temp back down to 32.5 and it’s just puking…My goodness! 

[TacomaWx]

Hail in Redmond. 

[TT-SEA]

Interestingly... the ECMWF shows precip right over Seattle at 4 p.m. this afternoon well after the stuff farther north has faded away.  

[SnowySeeker50]

3 nights of disappointment have now occurred. Time to move onto spring. 40 degrees and sunny.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF snows a little snow in the band near Seattle late this afternoon.  

[TT-SEA]

Here is the precip loop from the ECMWF... you can see the activity now around Seattle fades but then comes back later this afternoon for a little while.  

[MikeInEverett]

Shows how much of an elevation based winter this is here. We’re probably less than 10 miles apart yet he has triple my total for the season!

[Winterdog]

16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Temp back down to 32.5 and it’s just puking…My goodness! 

I'm over 4" now, not puking but feeling nauseous.  33F with a DP of 32F.

 

[Cold Snap]

Graupel falling front the sky!

[BurienSnowGlobe]

The band right at I90 has expanded a bit and now getting heavier precip in CD

[MossMan]

Dogs in snow. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF snows a little snow in the band near Seattle late this afternoon.  

This afternoon? More like a slushy rain band at best unless you have some elevation.

[LowerGarfield]

This picture is my melting snow is oddly satisfying. It perfectly matches the contours of my neighbors' shade.

[fubario]

Well, that sucked.

[TT-SEA]

Randy... c-zone is still there on Friday on 12Z ECMWF.   Looks like you might be one of the people getting significant snow that morning.   Keep the plow ready!   

[PuyallupChris]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Randy... c-zone is still there on Friday.   Looks like you will be the only one getting snow that morning.   Keep the plow ready!   

There is actually a little Pierce county snow there that isn’t terrain bleed.

It’s not gonna happen, of course. Not sure why models have the south end so snowy so consistently while conditions are clearly not conducive for winter precip.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another 1/2” before leaving the house. The neighbors at the end of the road were shoveling snow off the flat part of their roof. Looks like some more snow Thursday night. 

[ShawniganLake]

Suns out now.  Measured a snow depth of 15-17” in the sheltered spots in my yard. 
 

[MikeInEverett]

Based off radar and how much there looks to be right now looks like I’ll end up with 1-2” at home from the CZ! Really saved the day for me. Still snowing at a decent clip at home and looks to continue for a bit. Wish I was at home to experience it but at least there will be some snow on the ground!

[Requiem]

All snow! Everything is once again covered in white

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Requiem said:

All snow! Everything is once again covered in white

How much accumulation so far?

[Winterdog]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Randy... c-zone is still there on Friday on 12Z ECMWF.   Looks like you might be one of the people getting significant snow that morning.   Keep the plow ready!   

That shows me with 6" too!  Not likely but that would put a nice cherry on top of this fading winter. 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF still shows snow for the Seattle area and for the Portland area late Friday night into Saturday morning.   Next trough digs down offshore and pulls up moisture and the timing is favorable at night and early morning.    This is very consistent with its 00Z run... but a little less than that run showed in the same time frame.

[Cold Snap]

Well this is nice.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

 

[TT-SEA]

Here are temperatures at 4 a.m. Saturday

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF still shows snow for the Seattle area and for the Portland area late Friday night into Saturday morning.   Next trough digs down offshore and pulls up moisture and the timing is favorable at night and early morning.    This is very consistent with its 00Z run... but a little less than that run showed in the same time frame.

Holy shhit 

[Cold Snap]

Absolutely dumping graupel! It looks like snow falling in the video.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In Salem now, looks like an inch in the NE part of town. Plus whatever has melted. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Here are temperatures at 4 a.m. Saturday

Hmmm… maybe not terrain bleed after all.

[Perturbed Member]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF still shows snow for the Seattle area and for the Portland area late Friday night into Saturday morning.   Next trough digs down offshore and pulls up moisture and the timing is favorable at night and early morning.    This is very consistent with its 00Z run... but a little less than that run showed in the same time frame.

Appears to be all phantom snow in the lowlands based on temps. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Appears to be all phantom snow in the lowlands based on temps. 

Maybe, but Salem had 1-2” in the low parts of town and I don’t think SLE ever got below 33-34.

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Randy... c-zone is still there on Friday on 12Z ECMWF.   Looks like you might be one of the people getting significant snow that morning.   Keep the plow ready!   

Wow!!