PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Snowdome]

Huge flakes now in Oregon City. 

[T-Town]

13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Pretty hard to take the 2.6” the gfs spits out this weekend seriously. It’s possible there could be more lowland snow coming up…but getting harder for it to happen each passing day below 500’. I don’t expect we see any more snow in the next couple weeks. 

Yeah. Fool me 1000 times, shame on you GFS. But fool me 1001 times, shame on me. 
 

Not falling for it!!!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Yeah. Fool me 1000 times, shame on you GFS. But fool me 1001 times, shame on me. 
 

Not falling for it!!!

But maybe this time it will be right!  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Based on the radar it appears that @ShawniganLake is getting hit hard and @VancouverIslandSouth is in on the action now as well as that deformation band has rotated to the SE.    

And that is all heading towards Randy.  

Woke up to about 4" of fresh snow. It's still coming down lightly.

 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Yeah. Fool me 1000 times, shame on you GFS. But fool me 1001 times, shame on me. 
 

Not falling for it!!!

The models were pretty much right on the money for the snow Sunday morning. Gfs had 1.4”, euro 1.2” and we ended up with 1.1”. That’s weird considering that was a very complicated set up…maybe more complicated than this morning. 

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

But maybe this time it will be right!  

I will not be sucked back in!!!

But seriously, do you think so?

[MossMan]

Plowing done! Power is still out, and it’s dumping snow again 

Edited February 28, 2023 by MossMan

[SouthHillFrosty]

I am officially done posting GFS snow maps for the year. I have been burned to many times this year 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

I will not be sucked back in!!!

But seriously, do you think so?

Every time I think I know which model will be best something different happens.    ECMWF is usually the best bet and it showed snow on Saturday on its last run so there is a decent chance.  

[MikeInEverett]

Bummer. Got almost a perfect CZ but it’s just a bit too warm. Nothing really sticking. Can’t win! Looks like it’s gonna mostly hit central Snohomish Co. as Everett is on the south end of it.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Euro says I get more IMBY on Thursday, but it has terrain bleed written all over it.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

This looks more like actual snow. Marginal temperatures, as is standard for March, so could easily be cold rain or a mix.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Euro says I get more IMBY on Thursday, but it has terrain bleed written all over it.

Idk….temps looks good for you up there. Completely doable in the range of 32-35

[MossMan]

Hey Tim…Where did my Friday CZ snow go? 

[BurienSnowGlobe]

Can’t tell if that blob up north is expanding south or just breaking up at the south end per the UW Radar

[LowerGarfield]

43 minutes ago, MWG said:

2" which all fell during 5am till around 7:30ish. Still snowing very lightly but temps are at 33F.

That's great for you to get off the schneid as they say in baseball. You did have that half inch earlier but two of course is much more impactful and fun. At two inches it is enough to play in.

[MossMan]

I just shoveled the deck and it’s already getting covered again. Temp up to 33.3 but it doesn’t seem to be much different yet. Still snow and still sticking, not really any melting. DP 32.7

[Ray]

[Rubus Leucodermis]

And that's about all she wrote. Still coming down, but it's so heavy and gloppy that it's compacting as fast or faster than it accumulates. 3.9" total for this storm.

[MWG]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

That's great for you to get off the schneid as they say in baseball. You did have that half inch earlier but two if of course much more impactful and fun. At two inches it is enough to play in.

Yup! The doggy was zooming all over the backyard! 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Hey Tim…Where did my Friday CZ snow go? 

Waiting for 12Z ECMWF to come out.   06Z run still showed it happening on Friday morning and its been consistent on every run.

[seattleweatherguy]

Hailing here now 33 degrees

[Rubus Leucodermis]

35.4" for the season, almost to the 3' mark. Even a dusting on Saturday might get me there.

About 6" on the ground.

[Canadian guy]

26 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

Woke up to about 4" of fresh snow. It's still coming down lightly.

 

We had about 2-3 inches in the Gordon head area of Victoria .  Your elevation and being away from the water definitely helped you. 

[MossMan]

Wow it’s puking snow again!! 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Wow it’s puking snow again!! 

I was noticing that on radar... the back edge keeps building back over your area.  Nature wants to make sure you get enough.   

[T-Town]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Every time I think I know which model will be best something different happens.    ECMWF is usually the best bet and it showed snow on Saturday on its last run so there is a decent chance.  

Yeah I was trying to make another joke. Didn’t work out. 

[LowerGarfield]

6 minutes ago, MWG said:

Yup! The doggy was zooming all over the backyard! 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ktvl.com/amp/news/local/school-closure-and-delays-this-morning-three-rivers-rcc-rogue-community-college-dunsmuir-grants-pass-rogue-saint-anne-catholic

Enjoy your snow day. Lucky kids in Medford, Ashland, and nearby areas have no school today.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

35.4" for the season, almost to the 3' mark. Even a dusting on Saturday might get me there.

I’m at approximately 30” now for the season. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, MossMan said:

I’m at approximately 30” now for the season. 

You have been doing a great job of catch-up after your slow start.

[MikeInEverett]

Just now, MossMan said:

I’m at approximately 30” now for the season. 

You’ve almost tripled my total

[LowerGarfield]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wow it’s puking snow again!! 

At Mossman's the question is...when isn't it? Lol. Randy you'd better take the day off to enjoy it haha. Is Stanwood on late start?

[Winterdog]

A little over 3” here but looking like it’s slowing down.  Nothing like Mossmans but I’ll take it.  33F 

[Cloud]

Seems like to me the lack of precipitation for the Seattle is to blame for this forecast bust. I think it was cold enough for snow given the DPs, but forecast models were calling for 1-3" and even higher at some locations with 2-4. 1/10 of precipitation equates to roughly ~1" of snow. For the overnight period, SEA picked up about 0.16-0.18" -- that should be good enough for about 2" had it been cold enough. 

BFI on the other hand picked up 0.11", should be good for about an 1"

I think this is was way less than what the models had picked up. 

[MikeInEverett]

Yeah, good looking CZ and it looks like it has quite a bit of life left. 

[MWG]

1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/ktvl.com/amp/news/local/school-closure-and-delays-this-morning-three-rivers-rcc-rogue-community-college-dunsmuir-grants-pass-rogue-saint-anne-catholic

Enjoy your snow day. Lucky kids in Medford, Ashland, and nearby areas have no school today.

Yeah, all Jackson County and I think Josephine county too are on snow day! Thank you! 

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

A little over 3” here but looking like it’s slowing down.  Nothing like Mossmans but I’ll take it.  33F 

So glad for you since you've been also in the screw zone this winter.

[MossMan]

Jesus Jones! 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

You have been doing a great job of catch-up after your slow start.

Big time! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

A little over 3” here but looking like it’s slowing down.  Nothing like Mossmans but I’ll take it.  33F 

Finally a decent score! I thought this storm might be the one for you. Most every model map had Skagit County solidly blue yesterday.