September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Seasonal lag doesn’t apply to sun angles. It seems pretty common to have a warm sunny period the first week of April to me. Seems to be when we usually take our first swing at 75+ or so down here.

 

OK Jesse.     It often feels like the middle summer around here in late March and early April.   

[Jesse]

OK Jesse. It often feels like the middle summer around here in late March and early April.

You were the one making the silly sun angle comparisons. Not me. I was just adding some factual context. The rest is pretty subjective.

[TT-SEA]

You were the one making the silly sun angle comparisons. Not me. I was just adding some factual context. The rest is pretty subjective.

 

Silly?

 

At some point... the low sun angle and earlier sunset and long cool nights makes it feel like fall even when its warm outside during the day.      That happens during the last half of September up here.   Maybe a week later down there.  

 

I suppose if it was 85 degrees and sunny for a week in early April you could argue that it feels like summer.   But its usually raining and in the 50s at that time so its a moot point.  

[Geos]

Total precip per the 12Z ECMWF over the next 10 days...

 

 

 

Barely anything from Seattle southward through the weekend.   The weekend actually looks fairly and pleasant now.   

 

Rain is focused on Monday and Tuesday with lingering showers on Wednesday.    

 

Little more love for the northern Portland metro at least. 

I'll take the ~1.2".

[Jesse]

Silly?

 

At some point... the low sun angle and earlier sunset and long cool nights makes it feel like fall even when its warm outside during the day. That happens during the last half of September up here. Maybe a week later down there.

 

I suppose if it was 85 degrees and sunny for a week in early April you could argue that it feels like summer. But its usually raining and in the 50s at that time so its a moot point.

Early April 2016 felt pretty summary.

[TT-SEA]

Little more love for the northern Portland metro at least. 

I'll take the ~1.2".

 

 

Monday and Tuesday feature broad. wet SW flow... which has been completely absent for months.     It seems like all the rain in May and June (and also the recent rain events) was the result of NW flow which heavily shadows many places from Seattle southward.

 

The last time we had wet SW flow was in the middle of April.   

 

I will gladly take a couple days of periodic rain on a Monday and Tuesday... even in the summer!    Perfect timing and much needed.

[TT-SEA]

Early April 2016 felt pretty summary.

 

Yes... that was an extreme example though.    Pretty much unprecedented.  

[Deweydog]

Why don't you guys just download a reasonably inexpensive calendar app on your tablet or smart phone?

[Jesse]

Why don't you guys just download a reasonably inexpensive calendar app on your tablet or smart phone?

This site is sort of fun:

 

https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/portland-or?month=9&year=2018

[Jesse]

Heat patterns here are becoming increasingly inconsequential from a forcing perspective. It used to be that it took pretty dynamic large scale blocking to force a long stretch of 90+ here. Nowadays we can ride long stretches of 90ish weather even with our typical NW flow and stagnant summer high pressure regime. This summer barely even felt unusual from a dynamics perspective, there were relatively few days with sharp offshore gradients or thermal lows.

A northward shift of Hadley Cells/expansion of the Four Corners high is the likely culprit. Or global cooling, in layman’s terms.

[Jesse]

The ostracized EPS looks pretty good. It also wanted me to let you guys know it still considers itself relevant.

[TT-SEA]

The ostracized EPS looks pretty good. It also wanted me to let you guys know it still considers itself relevant.

 

 

12Z ECMWF also shows an elongated but dry trough later next week.    

 

That would probably look really sexy on the EPS!   

 

I remember the ECMWF and EPS also showing that for this week but it did not work out.    Remember my 'baggy trough' posts?      

[TT-SEA]

This did not exactly verify... but it looked really troughy on the EPS at that time.  

 

 

12Z ECMWF shows the very definition of "baggy trough" next week. 




Surface map shows very nice weather... lots of sun and pleasant temps. Very little in the way of low clouds and no precip at all.

 

[TT-SEA]

It became this... 

 

[Jesse]

#triggered

[TT-SEA]

#triggered

 

 

Not at all.   Just musing about model tendencies lately.   

 

Although its much more fun for you to imagine otherwise.   Straw man!    

[Jesse]

Gonna be rough once it decides to actually trough here.

[TT-SEA]

Gonna be rough once it decides to actually trough here.

 

Straw man again.

 

Always the same thing with you.     You are projecting.   

 

And deep troughing can be absolutely lovely in the fall and winter and even the spring.    Way better than flat ridging at that time of year.     

[Jesse]

Today is spectacular. Although I notice some light smoke moving in from the south.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful day in the low 80s again.  Wonder if the dry streak will reach Sept 11 and get us to 90 straight days?  Already shattered the record, might as well make it really difficult to break (for another year or two).

 

Edit: Latest GFS op says the streak might break on Friday night into Sat for the Valley, which would put us at 90 days if it holds off until the wee small hours of Sunday the 8th.

[Deweydog]

Gonna be rough once it decides to actually trough here.

Especially if it's a dry one.

[Farmboy]

It can't stay dry forever, troughs are gonna trough eventually.

[TT-SEA]

It can't stay dry forever, troughs are gonna trough eventually.

 

 

Going to be wet up here on Friday into Saturday morning and the first part of next week.   Troughs are troughing!  

[Deweydog]

It can't stay dry forever, troughs are gonna trough eventually.

That kind of ignorant complacency is what got us into this mess to begin with.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day.

 

How is it possible that Jesse and I agree completely on our opinion of today??  

 

Much more fun to pretend one person wants it to rain every single day forever... and the other person never wants another rain drop to fall.    

 

This is a great analogy of the political environment in this country right now.    The other side has to be pure evil... there is no other way.   

[MossMan]

Quite the brushfire on the west side of I-5 just south of my work. Flames were shooting as high as the trees but couldn’t get a good pic of it.

[TT-SEA]

Quite the brushfire on the west side of I-5 just south of my work. Flames were shooting as high as the trees but couldn’t get a good pic of it.

 

Probably a car fire.

 

Rain prevents cars from bursting into flames.

[Jesse]

Especially if it's a dry one.

Sounds pleasant.

[Deweydog]

Sounds pleasant.

Speaking of triggered...

 

You've wrung about six posts out of that gem so far.

[Farmboy]

[Jesse]

Speaking of triggered...

 

You've wrung about six posts out of that gem so far.

I feel pretty remiss, considering you never get any mileage out of my posts.

[BLI snowman]

Probably a car fire.

 

Rain prevents cars from bursting into flames.

 

Looks more like a drought victim to me.

 

Latest updates are encouraging. Crater Lake might seriously become a thing of the past pretty soon

 

 

[MossMan]

Probably a car fire.

 

Rain prevents cars from bursting into flames.

I didn’t see any cars on fire, just brush and trees.

[Deweydog]

The most dangerous cars are the ones you can't see.

[TT-SEA]

Looks more like a drought victim to me.

 

Latest updates are encouraging. Crater Lake might seriously become a thing of the past pretty soon

 

 

20180828_West_trd.png

 

 

Hyperbole!

 

The current level is 6,172 feet.   That is 8 feet below the highest point ever in the geological history of the lake going back 7,700 years.  

 

And 10 feet higher than the level at the lowest recorded point in 1942.     

[Jesse]

Uh oh...Mark bumped tomorrow up to 90...

[Jesse]

I didn’t see any cars on fire, just brush and trees.

Someone isn’t being a very good sidekick right now.

[Deweydog]

Uh oh...Mark bumped tomorrow up to 90...

I once read somewhere he has developed a cancerous warm bias in his old age.

[Geos]

I didn’t see any cars on fire, just brush and trees.

 

Maybe someone threw their butt out the window. 

[Phil]

Haha! Phil's house on the long range EURO...

Tim would love it out here. Months of guaranteed unrelenting torching, lots of Sun, AND lots of rain to keep stuff green into November.