September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Pleasant 66 outside right now. We shall see if we make it into the mid-40s like the weather mate app says (pretty sure they use MOS)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

When I drove through the Paisley/Summer Lake area there was a pretty large fire burning up on the escarpments above the region. Pretty large camp of several hundred fire fighters on a ranch outside of town. I'd say the fire line in the mountains was 10-15 miles long, some parts didn't look active, some were putting up a ton of smoke. 

 

Looks like it is 95% contained though. Burned 58,000 acres, and I don't think it was ever mentioned on the news... Lonely country.

https://www.klamathfallsnews.org/news/wildfire-update-watson-creek-fire-20180905

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim not on here gloating about the 00z models showing dry and warmth has me curious...I'm going to go check them out.

[Jesse]

00z looked wet. Noticed it’s a wet outlier on the ensmbles, but there’s good agreement on 850mb temps.

[Jbolin]

When I drove through the Paisley/Summer Lake area there was a pretty large fire burning up on the escarpments above the region. Pretty large camp of several hundred fire fighters on a ranch outside of town. I'd say the fire line in the mountains was 10-15 miles long, some parts didn't look active, some were putting up a ton of smoke. 

 

Looks like it is 95% contained though. Burned 58,000 acres, and I don't think it was ever mentioned on the news... Lonely country.

 

https://www.klamathfallsnews.org/news/wildfire-update-watson-creek-fire-20180905

That's out towards Summer Lake and Christmas Valley right? 

 

GF and I came back through Paisley on our way home from Reno last summer just to see what that area looked like and yes it is very desolate and sparse. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim not on here gloating about the 00z models showing dry and warmth has me curious...I'm going to go check them out.

 

Yeah... Fall definitely arrives on the 00z GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's out towards Summer Lake and Christmas Valley right? 

 

GF and I came back through Paisley on our way home from Reno last summer just to see what that area looked like and yes it is very desolate and sparse. 

 

Yes, and believe it or not that area is heavily populated compared to the areas east of Lakeview towards Hart and Steens Mountain, south and east of Steens is even more desolate. I drove from Adel, OR to Denio Jct., Nevada and the first house was about 50 miles into the drive. There may have been 1-2 more houses closer to Denio in the final 30 miles...But I'm not sure if they were inhabited or not. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z looked wet. Noticed it’s a wet outlier on the ensmbles, but there’s good agreement on 850mb temps.

 

Noticed that on the ensembles...It's funny. I didn't even have to look at the models to know they trended wetter/cooler.

[Jbolin]

Yes, and believe it or not that area is heavily populated compared to the areas east of Lakeview towards Hart and Steens Mountain, south and east of Steens is even more desolate. I drove from Adel, OR to Denio Jct., Nevada and the first house was about 50 miles into the drive. There may have been 1-2 more houses closer to Denio in the final 30 miles...But I'm not sure if they were inhabited or not. 

There's a creepiness to the area but astoundingly beautiful at the same time especially as you drive north on the west side of Summer lake eventually making your way up the east slopes of the Cascades on the way to La Pine back into modern civilization. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There's a creepiness to the area but astoundingly beautiful at the same time especially as you drive north on the west side of Summer lake eventually making your way up the east slopes of the Cascades on the way to La Pine back into modern civilization. 

 

My brother and I camped out in Big Indian Gorge on Steens Mountain 9 summers ago. Was so eerie all alone out there in the desert night. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

My brother and I camped out in Big Indian Gorge on Steens Mountain 9 summers ago. Was so eerie all alone out there in the desert night.

Can't imagine what it would have been like to just live under the stars like that back in the 1800s.

[Jesse]

Noticed that on the ensembles...It's funny. I didn't even have to look at the models to know they trended wetter/cooler.

It’s always easy to tell.

 

Euro must be good too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Can't imagine what it would have been like to just live under the stars like that back in the 1800s.

 

I know right. That area, especially the Fort Rock Valley, were homesteaded in the late 1800s/early 1900s. Most people didn't last long though...

[jakeinthevalley]

 

When I drove through the Paisley/Summer Lake area there was a pretty large fire burning up on the escarpments above the region. Pretty large camp of several hundred fire fighters on a ranch outside of town. I'd say the fire line in the mountains was 10-15 miles long, some parts didn't look active, some were putting up a ton of smoke.

 

Looks like it is 95% contained though. Burned 58,000 acres, and I don't think it was ever mentioned on the news... Lonely country.

 

https://www.klamathfallsnews.org/news/wildfire-update-watson-creek-fire-20180905[/quote

That fire never really made the news. Weekend before last, I was in Mitchell, OR and was talking to a store owner who said her son was deployed to that fire from the Jennie Butte Fire near the John Day River, as it had been contained.

There was a large fire camp near Paisley. No structures were threatened, so that's why it never made the "news."

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunset Sunday evening from near the summit of the Steens.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unfortunate no EURO maps are available because someone wanted to take their ball and go home because it showed to much rain.

[TT-SEA]

I fell asleep at 10... just woke up to go to the bathroom now and should not have checked here.

 

00Z ECMWF was drier... and much warmer later next week. Glad I was not up to post maps. It certainly did not trend colder and wetter... your theory is BS.

 

I posted frame by frame this morning from the 12Z run which kept the rain going all week and was the wettest and coldest run yet here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I fell asleep at 10... just woke up to go to the bathroom now and should not have checked here.

 

00Z ECMWF was drier... and much warmer later next week. Glad I was not up to post maps. It certainly did not trend colder and wetter... your theory is BS.

 

I posted frame by frame this morning from the 12Z run which kept the rain going all week and was the wettest and coldest run yet here.

 

I fell asleep at 10... just woke up to go to the bathroom now and should not have checked here.

 

00Z ECMWF was drier... and much warmer later next week. Glad I was not up to post maps. It certainly did not trend colder and wetter... your theory is BS.

 

I posted frame by frame this morning from the 12Z run which kept the rain going all week and was the wettest and coldest run yet here.

 

How dare you get a restful nights sleep!

[Jbolin]

Looking at recent SST data, past climo (and other factors) anyone else thinking the forecast El Nino may develop into a "modoki"?

[Jesse]

Nice to see the Saturday system getting resurrected in the home stretch. Bodes well for the heavier precip next week.

[TT-SEA]

Nice to see the Saturday system getting resurrected in the home stretch. Bodes well for the heavier precip next week.

 

I don't see any any change in the models.   The 00Z ECMWF and the 06Z GFS show the same dribs and drabs that all the runs have shown recently.    It was never totally dry... but only a couple hundredths at best.   Even up here.    It will rain a little everywhere but its a ghost of what it once looked liked.  

[Jesse]

I don't see any any change in the models. The 00Z ECMWF and the 06Z GFS show the same dribs and drabs that all the runs have shown recently. It was never totally dry... but only a couple hundredths at best. Even up here. It will rain a little everywhere but its a ghost of what it once looked liked.

There has been a small uptick in amounts down here. I will take it!

[ShawniganLake]

I don't see any any change in the models. The 00Z ECMWF and the 06Z GFS show the same dribs and drabs that all the runs have shown recently. It was never totally dry... but only a couple hundredths at best. Even up here. It will rain a little everywhere but its a ghost of what it once looked liked.

I’m hoping for a dry weekend on the 14-16th. Charity ball tournament. Could you please make some reservations for the east side. That seems to do the trick. Thanks.

[TT-SEA]

I’m hoping for a dry weekend on the 14-16th. Charity ball tournament. Could you please make some reservations for the east side. That seems to do the trick. Thanks.

Too funny... we actually did that yesterday. But this time we are going regardless of the weather. Going on wine tasting trip with my parents.

[Geos]

GFS takes Olivia right into the Hawaiian Islands. 

 

 

Nice morning. Currently 52 under calm winds and sunny skies.

[Blizzard777]

GFS takes Olivia right into the Hawaiian Islands. 

 

 

Nice morning. Currently 52 under calm winds and sunny skies.

Ouch!

Norman this morning has just begun its Northerly turn

[Jesse]

Still can’t believe we might actually see appreciable precip in just 4-5 days. Expecting something to change at the last minute, especially with those hurricanes in the Pacific.

[Jesse]

Yesterday’s heat spike pushed PDX from -1.1 to +0.5 for the month to date.

 

Today and tomorrow will continuing adding to the positive side. Beyond that up in the air.

[TT-SEA]

Still can’t beliece we might actually see appreciable precip in just 4-5 days. Expecting something to change at the last minute, especially with those hurricanes in the Pacific.

Will be approaching mid September... becoming a given soon. This is not California. It will not stay dry.

[Jesse]

Will be approaching mid September... becoming a given soon. This is not California. It will not stay dry.

Plenty of years that we stay fairly dry into mid-October or so down here.

 

We do not average two weeks of dry weather a year like you do up there. This is a different climate.

[Farmboy]

Still can’t beliece we might actually see appreciable precip in just 4-5 days. Expecting something to change at the last minute, especially with those hurricanes in the Pacific.

Beliece it when you see it.

[Jesse]

Beliece it when you see it.

You just made me a beliecer!

[TT-SEA]

Plenty of years that we stay fairly dry into mid-October or so down here.

 

We do not average two weeks of dry weather a year like you do up there. This is a different climate.

Indeed.

[Geos]

Arctic blast still there on the 6z GFS.

 

Looks like widespread 40s for lows next Thursday night.

 

 

Even cooler Friday night.

 

 

Snow up in BC, AB

 

[Blizzard777]

The weather dice are loading up with other symbols besides DRY/HOT/SMOKE

 

Although I wouldn’t mind summer extending a bit longer

[ShawniganLake]

Too funny... we actually did that yesterday. But this time we are going regardless of the weather. Going on wine tasting trip with my parents.

Haha. Hopefully it works again.

[Jesse]

Haha. Hopefully it works again.

Only works when he eventually cancels the reservations.

[TT-SEA]

Only works when he eventually cancels the reservations.

 

 

I was thinking the same thing.   

 

The fact that we are going for sure probably means it will be wet on this side this time.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Arctic blast still there on the 6z GFS.

 

Looks like widespread 40s for lows next Thursday night.

 

 

Even cooler Friday night.

 

 

Snow up in BC, AB

 

Cool!

[Front Ranger]

Had a nice thunderstorm one morning while we were in Hvar, Croatia, but otherwise warm and sunny with low to mid 80s.

 

On a train now from Dusseldorf, Germany to Amsterdam, and there's been light PNWish drizzle off and on all afternoon. Very green here!