November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

12z does not look like it is following the positive direction of the 06z.

Wow ICON is BAD!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS moves this system into CA. The GEM and FV3-GFS want to bring it right through Oregon.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow ICON is BAD!!

 

Much warmer and drier than any other model. Tim will be on here posting every 3 hour frame momentarily.

[Jesse]

The GFS moves this system into CA. The GEM and FV3-GFS want to bring it right through Oregon.

 

That’s the 18z ICON though.

[Esquimalt]

FV3 Looks really nice and cold...a ton of cold air available around hour 280

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That’s the 18z ICON though.

 

Beg your pardon?

[ShawniganLake]

Some eye candy from two years ago. Didn't turn out quite this good, but the early December period did bring a solid 4-5" snowfall up here and about an inch in the valley from Salem north.

 

That turned into a northern centric month.

We had snow on the ground from the 5th thru to New Years in 2016

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV3 Looks really nice and cold...a ton of cold air available around hour 280

 

 

What it shows on that map I posted above would bring pretty low snow levels north of the low.

[TT-SEA]

Much warmer and drier than any other model. Tim will be on here posting every 3 hour frame momentarily.

 

Yep... that is what I do.   

 

48 frames posted for each model run... every day.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That turned into a northern centric month.

We had snow on the ground from the 5th thru to New Years in 2016

 

It wasn't bad down south either. Salem had 5" of snow on the 14th that stuck around for 4-5 days. Ended up well below average even down here. However, nothing like shown on that map came close to verifying. 

 

Just looked at Silver Falls data, what stands out is how consistently cool the month was. Never had a high over 43 there. Every day from the 9th on had a sub-40 high. I never really noticed until now, but they had a streak of sub-40 highs from December 8 - January 17th. May be a record for that location. 

[Jesse]

Beg your pardon?

ICONIC!!

[Blizzard777]

SCORE!!!!!!! ( - Portland)

 

This would cause my anxiety level to rise!!

[Bryant]

Some eye candy from two years ago. Didn't turn out quite this good, but the early December period did bring a solid 4-5" snowfall up here and about an inch in the valley from Salem north.

 

You saved an hour 324 chart? The 384 charts make much more sense now

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You saved an hour 324 chart? The 384 charts make much more sense now

 

Came up on FaceBook memories!

[TT-SEA]

Holy crap... the 12Z ECMWF shows like half a foot of snow falling just this evening from 4-10 p.m. in Pullman!   

 

This could be crazy!

 

[Esquimalt]

Massive arctic airmass about to hit us on the 12Z FV3 hour 384...I'm starting to feel good about the first couple of weeks of December. 

[Deweydog]

Massive arctic airmass about to hit us on the 12Z FV3 hour 384...I'm starting to feel good about the first couple of weeks of December.

Cool onshore flow is the new massive Arctic air mass. Ugh.

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z actaully ends up in the same place as the 06z. Actually speeds it up a little. Big Aleutian ridge.

 

Delightful!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Massive arctic airmass about to hit us on the 12Z FV3 hour 384...I'm starting to feel good about the first couple of weeks of December.

You know it's bad when we keep hanging our hats on 384 hr maps.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cool onshore flow is the new massive Arctic air mass. Ugh.

Gotta love that BSF

[ShawniganLake]

You know it's bad when we keep hanging our hats on 384 hr maps.

It’s been done this way for years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next weekend has the potential for some chillish weather.

[van city]

Next weekend has the potential for some chillish weather.

12z Euro!

[Esquimalt]

You know it's bad when we keep hanging our hats on 384 hr maps.

Good winter weather usually doesn't happen until December..

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Was busy yesterday with family so wishing everybody a Happy Thanksgiving and also a Happy Black Friday.

 

The 12z FV3 GFS shows the possibility of some wintry precipitation the first week of December.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

A very thin layer of snow earlier around sunrise but was not even measurable. 

 

And my advisory called for 2" with localized snow up to 6". I'd say that didn't go well.

 

Now back to rain showers.

[snow_wizard]

Next weekend has the potential for some chillish weather.

 

In general we are seeing a number of model runs indicating a decent chill in early December.  Looks like the lead up to something big to me.  Especially when you consider the latest MJO forecasts.

[Farmboy]

FV3 Looks really nice and cold...a ton of cold air available around hour 280

7 days from now it'll still show 'cold air available at hour 280' Lol, such is winter in the PNW, enjoy!

[snow_wizard]

Talk about an unlikely MJO forecast for a warm ENSO scenario.  A weak wave blasts through Nino friendly regions and then amplifies into a slow moving wave over the sweet 2 - 5 regions.  We could score big with this!

 

 

[snow_wizard]

7 days from now it'll still show 'cold air available at hour 280' Lol, such is winter in the PNW, enjoy!

 

You have no idea that this is true.  Some modest cold actually appears likely fairly soon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Holy crap... the 12Z ECMWF shows like half a foot of snow falling just this evening from 4-10 p.m. in Pullman!   

 

This could be crazy!

 

 

Other than this map nothing is indicating this will happen. 

[Front Ranger]

Holy crap... the 12Z ECMWF shows like half a foot of snow falling just this evening from 4-10 p.m. in Pullman!

 

This could be crazy!

 

Awesome. My brothers and I are hoping to be watching a snow bowl from the warm comfort of BWW.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Other than this map nothing is indicating this will happen.

Let's hope it's onto something.

 

You going to Reser for the Civil War?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Let's hope it's onto something.

 

You going to Reser for the Civil War?

 

No. We thought about it, but my family decided to do Thanksgiving today, so we are just going to be in Silverton. 

 

The only scenario I could see snow falling at Pullman, and probably what the EURO is showing is a stalled band of heavy precip. 44 and partly sunny in Pullman right now.

[BLI snowman]

Holy crap... the 12Z ECMWF shows like half a foot of snow falling just this evening from 4-10 p.m. in Pullman!

 

This could be crazy!

 

1992 repeat.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[TT-SEA]

Other than this map nothing is indicating this will happen. 

 

The WRF does not show it... but the ECMWF is far superior when it comes to predicting snowfall.

 

Although... I actually no idea how the ECMWF performs for far eastern WA in terms of snow.   I have never followed it closely.

[kokaneekidz]

SCORE!!!!!!! ( - Portland)

 

Convergence Blast (snow with thunder and occasional graupel!)

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Convergence Blast (snow with thunder and occasional graupel!)

Only 384 hrs away

[Front Ranger]

1992 repeat.

Doesn't fit with your 1976/2004 analog blend.