Deweydog Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 They look a notch milder.Notch, click, bit or a touch? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Euro for this Saturday four days ago. Euro now for Saturday. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 VERY interested to see the 12z ensembles. Kinda warm Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 No s**t, but you guys respond like this will FINALLY get him to fly right when it comes to regional context. Thank you! We can all sleep better under our blanket of warm below average 850mb temperatures. Sounds like someone has gotten sucked into scolding the people who were sucked into scolding the troll. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Wow. SLE picked up 0.55" between 4a-10a. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Sounds like someone has gotten sucked into scolding the people who were sucked into scolding the troll.Just food for thought. Carry on my wayward son. There'll be peace when you are done. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Ironically it comes up on a wet morning. Go out and enjoy it!It’s glorious! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Offshore ridge looks a notch better on the Euro compared to the GFS, and it's a touch colder as well. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Tim wet himself over SEA's rainfall totals from the recent storm and literally made 10 posts about it. As with most things, he brought it on himself. Brought on what? We have no water issues or drought concerns up here... from Olympia northward through all of southern BC. Its all good. SW WA and Oregon has significant drought concerns. Its very different down there... IT IS WHAT IT IS. Lumping all us all together does not work. Take it up Mother Nature. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Euro for this Saturday four days ago. ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png Euro now for Saturday. ecmwf_z500a_namer_4.pngLacking moisture Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 SEA was 31 inches above normal for the 2014-17 period.And currently 2 inches below normal for 2018.Time to panic... serious situation! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Next week could be chilly. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Euro for this Saturday four days ago. ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png Euro now for Saturday. ecmwf_z500a_namer_4.png Deeper troughing is a good thing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Lacking moisture Yep. But colder and much improved pattern overall. The blocks just keep on coming. Looks like the EPO is gonna tank yet again in early December. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Brought on what? We have no water issues or drought concerns up here... from Olympia northward through all of southern BC. Its all good. SW WA and Oregon has significant drought concerns. Its very different down there... IT IS WHAT IT IS. Lumping all us all together does not work. Take it up Mother Nature. The reminders that it's been a regionally dry multi-season period. Not dust bowl dry for everyone, but certainly dry. It is what it is! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Don't think any snow actually fell. Just ended up with a soggy morning. And a deer chewing on more winter apples in the yard. Nothing out of the ordinary. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Tim wet himself over SEA's rainfall totals from the recent storm and literally made 10 posts about it. As with most things, he brought it on himself. I appreciated Tim’s posts today and thought they were very informative. There were probably some ulterial motives with them but nonetheless they were full of good weather information and I enjoyed reading and looking at 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Yep. But colder and much improved pattern overall. The blocks just keep on coming. Looks like the EPO is gonna tank yet again in early December.But the WPO???????????? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 The reminders that it's been a regionally dry multi-season period. Not dust bowl dry for everyone, but certainly dry. It is what it is! Devil is the details! There is a little below normal and then there is serious drought. Both are technically drier than normal... but so different. SEA is 2 inches below normal for 2018.PDX is about 8.5 inches below normal.SLE is about 8.5 inches below normal.EUG is almost 16 inches below normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Don't think any snow actually fell. Just ended up with a soggy morning. And a deer chewing on more winter apples in the yard. Nothing out of the ordinary. I think you are going to get some snow later this week. Looks like NWS is saying 2-4" Friday night. Then chilly early next week with highs near freezing and lows in the teens. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 I appreciated Tim’s posts today and thought they were very informative. There were probably some ulterial motives with them but nonetheless they were full of good weather information and I enjoyed reading and looking at I agree (though he didn't need to make so many about the same thing basically between yesterday and today). Personally, I just found it humorous how giddy he got that he could finally highlight SEA again, since they led the way with rain this time. By the way, does this mean we can dispel the low precip measurement conspiracy theories about SEA now? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 But the WPO???????????? Not coincidentally, no Arctic outbreak modeled for the PNW. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 I think you are going to get some snow later this week. Looks like NWS is saying 2-4" Friday night. Then chilly early next week with highs near freezing and lows in the teens. Yeah noticed even wunderground is now mentioning a decent amount of activity from this point through first week of Dec. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 When I left the house this morning I was at 6" even for the month. Very dry November, but not in record territory anymore. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 I agree (though he didn't need to make so many about the same thing basically between yesterday and today). Personally, I just found it humorous how giddy he got that he could finally highlight SEA again, since they lead the way with rain this time. By the way, does this mean we can dispel the low precip measurement conspiracy theories about SEA now? I was happy to see the unusual disparity this year between SEA and the areas to the north and east of SEA start to get erased. That is all. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 When I left the house this morning I was at 6" even for the month. Very dry November, but not in record territory anymore. Over 10 inches here now. A slightly drier than normal November. But October was well above normal so it balances out. The entire year has balanced out here to a little wetter than normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 I was happy to see the unusual disparity this year between SEA and the areas to the north and east of SEA start to get erased. That is all. #wetdreamcometrue 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Burns, OR still running a -3.7F departure on the month. Average high/low so far this month is 48/12. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 This is the wettest time of the year folks. We'll be getting less precip on average after this week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 12Z ECMWF is very dry up here for this weekend and next week... its gets wetter as you go south. Here is total precip for the next week beginning tomorrow morning (to exclude rain that has already fallen today). And total snow through next Thursday: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Over 10 inches here now. A slightly drier than normal November. But October was well above normal so it balances out. The entire year has balanced out here to a little wetter than normal. Your location outperforms everyone else, yet again. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 This is the wettest time of the year folks. We'll be getting less precip on average after this week. This is true for BC/WA, but not for OR. Peak precip is December there, and January is about the same as November. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Your location outperforms everyone else, yet again. 60dPNormWA.png SEA and WFO SEA are very close to normal for October and November as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 12Z ECMWF shows an east wind each day beginning this weekend and continuing all of next week. Highs in the mid-40s for most of western WA and OR each day. Systems split and fall apart as the approach... lots of dry weather and sun. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 12Z ECMWF shows an east wind each day beginning this weekend and continuing all of next week. Highs in the mid-40s for most of western WA and OR each day. Systems split and fall apart as the approach... lots of dry weather and sun. Sounds nice. I bet Portland gets pretty chilly. Have to love a good ol' offshore flow/inversion pattern in early December! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Suzy Chapstick weather! Ugh. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 Not terrible... Sounds like I will most likely stay in the 30’s next week. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 958 AM PST Wed Nov 28 2018 A more consolidated system will drive southeast off B.C. coastline, reaching Western Washington on Friday. Models all show this system but the track of the vertically stacked low is still somewhat in question. Most of the latest runs take the low southeast just off the Washington coast. Some models bring more rain into the interior than other models, mainly due to subtle differences with the exact track. Assuming the GFS/ECMWF are correct, some light rain should reach much of the interior. The flow will become northerly as the low shifts to our south which should cool the air mass to some degree. It still appears cold air will be mostly bottled up and will probably not line up with moisture over the area which will be tapering off Saturday. Mercer .LONG TERM...Previous discussion...Overall, confidence is low on the general pattern and details of individual systems beyond Thursday. The models seemed to agree that we will enter a colder and drier phase. However, they are not entirely in agreement in regards to the systems in the northern branch. The current forecast indicates a drying trend this weekend, with Monday and Tuesday being dry and chilly days. Highs will probably struggle to reach 40 degrees in some lowland places. It looks like there will be fairly widespread lows in the 20s on the lowlands Sunday and Monday nights. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 28, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 November 2018 high/low/mean as of yesterday.. (KLMT) High: 53.8 (+7.8)Low: 20.7 (-4.4)Mean: 37.3 (+1.8) These last few days won't really do much in terms of tipping the scales. It's going to end slightly above average, even though I had kind of a decent cold stretch earlier in the month. The spread from low to high from each day was too great to cool down the overall month. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 I agree (though he didn't need to make so many about the same thing basically between yesterday and today). Personally, I just found it humorous how giddy he got that he could finally highlight SEA again, since they led the way with rain this time. By the way, does this mean we can dispel the low precip measurement conspiracy theories about SEA now?. I’m sure if there really was an issue with the sensor then the professionals would have taken care of it or there is a reason for it. I still thinks it’s odd that all the nearby sensors on Wundermap continuously read more rain. Even yesterday when that area got more rain than areas to the north the nearby sensors still had more than SEA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 28, 2018 Report Share Posted November 28, 2018 I'm excited to see the rain guage when I get home. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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