2/21 - 2/24 Powerhouse Upper Midwest/GL's Winter Storm

[uticasnow]

14 minutes ago, Icewoz said:

DTX is the voice of reason. Just wish media outlets could understand and translate the information correctly. 
 

Today`s model cycle continues temporal consistency with the bulk
features of the southern Plains system as it migrates into the mid
MS valley during Wednesday. Opted to go ahead with a Winter Storm
Watch with this forecast issuance given the potential magnitude of
the icing event. The lead time is a bit longer than usual,
especially for a mixed precip event, and carries risk of substantial
forecast changes but is offset by the potential for a high end icing
event somewhere in southern Lower MI. The Watch starts a framework
within which we can then shuffle around precipitation type and
amounts in upcoming forecasts. Today`s forecast cycle still depicts
surface temperature trends toward the Ohio border counties as the
greatest source of uncertainty on the southward extent of freezing
rain potential. Lenawee and Monroe counties are not in the Watch but
are expected to be in a Winter Weather Advisory time window later
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Locations farther north, especially
toward the northern Detroit suburbs to I-69, have a chance to be
more firmly in subfreezing air overlapped by high precipitation
rate. The range of model soundings broadly suggest an all snow start
is possible in this area followed by a lengthy period of sleet
before changing to freezing rain. The key will be persistence of
precipitation coverage and intensity which tend to verify in a more
scattered pattern when a convective component develops. The Tri
Cities and northern Thumb then stand the best chance to hold all
snow but with intervals of sleet and freezing rain also possible.
Exceedance of warning criteria accumulation/icing is play for all
areas in the Watch but with substantial north to south adjustments
possible as assessments of the surface cold layer strength and
northward progress of the warm nose are refined in later updates.

The one trend showing up in today`s forecast cycle is a farther
north solution on the surface low during Thursday preceded by the
broad mid level dry slot. Guidance POPs appear too high for too long
Thursday as the dry slot surges in likely reducing precip to drizzle
or freezing drizzle before temperatures rise above freezing most
area in the afternoon. The continued northward trend on surface low
carries it into central Lower MI Thursday evening followed by strong
cold front Thursday night. Temperature guidance indicates single
digit low temperatures possible by Friday morning

The warm air will win out, it always does

[uticasnow]

7 minutes ago, uticasnow said:

The warm air will win out, it always does

And then the dry slot!

[Icewoz]

13 minutes ago, uticasnow said:

And then the dry slot!

That’s why I take all of this with a grain of salt. 

[uticasnow]

6 minutes ago, Icewoz said:

That’s why I take all of this with a grain of salt. 

Yeap!

[CentralNebWeather]

Would be a nice surprise if this verified around here. 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Icewoz said:

DTX is the voice of reason. Just wish media outlets could understand and translate the information correctly. 
 

Today`s model cycle continues temporal consistency with the bulk
features of the southern Plains system as it migrates into the mid
MS valley during Wednesday. Opted to go ahead with a Winter Storm
Watch with this forecast issuance given the potential magnitude of
the icing event. The lead time is a bit longer than usual,
especially for a mixed precip event, and carries risk of substantial
forecast changes but is offset by the potential for a high end icing
event somewhere in southern Lower MI. The Watch starts a framework
within which we can then shuffle around precipitation type and
amounts in upcoming forecasts. Today`s forecast cycle still depicts
surface temperature trends toward the Ohio border counties as the
greatest source of uncertainty on the southward extent of freezing
rain potential. Lenawee and Monroe counties are not in the Watch but
are expected to be in a Winter Weather Advisory time window later
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Locations farther north, especially
toward the northern Detroit suburbs to I-69, have a chance to be
more firmly in subfreezing air overlapped by high precipitation
rate. The range of model soundings broadly suggest an all snow start
is possible in this area followed by a lengthy period of sleet
before changing to freezing rain. The key will be persistence of
precipitation coverage and intensity which tend to verify in a more
scattered pattern when a convective component develops. The Tri
Cities and northern Thumb then stand the best chance to hold all
snow but with intervals of sleet and freezing rain also possible.
Exceedance of warning criteria accumulation/icing is play for all
areas in the Watch but with substantial north to south adjustments
possible as assessments of the surface cold layer strength and
northward progress of the warm nose are refined in later updates.

The one trend showing up in today`s forecast cycle is a farther
north solution on the surface low during Thursday preceded by the
broad mid level dry slot. Guidance POPs appear too high for too long
Thursday as the dry slot surges in likely reducing precip to drizzle
or freezing drizzle before temperatures rise above freezing most
area in the afternoon. The continued northward trend on surface low
carries it into central Lower MI Thursday evening followed by strong
cold front Thursday night. Temperature guidance indicates single
digit low temperatures possible by Friday morning

1 hour ago, uticasnow said:

The warm air will win out, it always does

1 hour ago, uticasnow said:

And then the dry slot!

It already has per my grid-cast. Nothing says "ice storm cometh" in my grid. Just LOL worthy headline imo

[MNTonka]

NWS point has 17-30” for my location in St. Paul. I can’t say I’ve ever seen anything even remotely close to that high end before. Just to put this in perspective, 17.1” would tie the number 5 biggest recorded snowfalls @ MSP.  30” would be the largest ever, just nudging out the Halloween blizzard of ‘91. 
 

When you factor in the strong winds that will accompany the snow on Wednesday night/Thursday, this storm has the potential to absolutely cripple the area and could become extremely dangerous for anyone on the road. Not to mention the potential for structure collapses, emergency vehicles unable to get to calls etc. The side streets in the urban core (Minneapolis/St. Pau)are still ice-rutted from the snow we had earlier in the year. I could easily envision a scenario where the street plows will not be able to navigate the side streets and graders will have to be called in. 
 

 

[Phil]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

This storm has been named 'Olive' by TWC.

Name doesn't really match the vibe of the storm but whatever. It's what we're working with.

Lol, Olive is better than Jonas, which is what they named our blizzard in 2016 which dropped 3 feet here.

I took for granted how special that storm was. Didn’t spend nearly enough time outside. Don’t make the same mistake!

 

 

[Iceresistance]

It's going to be a rainmaker for me and maybe @Andie

[Money]

Big changes on the NAM it looks like 

[Money]

NAM QPF for the second wave went from 0.2 18z to over 1.5+ for southern WI. Huge ice storm in the Milwaukee area 

[Money]

NAM ice 

 

[Money]

HRRR has temps near 50 in Chicago 

[gosaints]

I would hate to be getting paid to forecast the lead wave.

[gosaints]

Been awhile since I have peaked at the RGEM black and whites

[gosaints]

[Money]

5 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Seems like it’s pretty beefy with the QPF 

[gosaints]

1 minute ago, Money said:

Seems like it’s pretty beefy with the QPF 

Weenie run me thinks

[Money]

2 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Weenie run me thinks

That 56 mm in N IL is over 2.25 QPF 

[Money]

Sleet storm here for the most part which wastes a good amount of qpf

[Bellona]

I'm even going to pffft to that. Still even a third of that would be significant. 

[Money]

Final RGEM snow totals. Went from 7 (18z) to 11 IMBY

[Money]

First wave on the models tonight 

[Stacsh]

Decent storm.  But not gonna these totals. 

[gosaints]

3 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Decent storm.  But not gonna these totals. 

Almost always the case right?  If this is the new decent I will be impressed.  

[james1976]

Bumped up to 18-25" now. Insane

Description

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by an additional 14 to 19 inches Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. For the entire storm, total accumulations will range from 18 to 25 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph by Wednesday. WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota. WHEN...From 3 PM Tuesday to 6 PM CST Thursday. IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

[james1976]

And this. Wow!

More Information

...HISTORIC WINTER STORM SHOULD LEAD TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY... .Two primary rounds of snow are expected. The first will arrive Tuesday afternoon, tapering off early Wednesday. Accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected with round one. Round two will begin Wednesday afternoon and continue into Thursday with an additional 10 to 20 inches expected. Total snow accumulations will range from 15 to 25 inches, with the best chance for the higher end totals across east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. This is expected to reach the top 5 heaviest snow storms. The worst conditions will be Wednesday evening through Thursday, as heavy snow combines with northeast wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph. This will lead to significant blowing and drifting snow with whiteout conditions in open areas. Some drifts may be several feet deep.

[Money]

GFS

[Grizzcoat]

^^ sliver of pink W.central IA is new to the game....

[Bellona]

That gfs run would spell a sleet storm for the Waterloo area. Seems to be the only model that has the freezing rain much further south. 

[james1976]

Pretty much every single run of every model has 2 feet of snow up here. And now the NWS is actually teasing the 2 feet mark. Incredible. And the official warning goes for 51 hours straight.

[Bellona]

La Crosse has issued for their counties in Northeast Iowa. 6 inches of snow and up to a quarter inch ice. That snowfall seems a bit high unless you are very close to the border.

 

[Bellona]

Just now, james1976 said:

Pretty much every single run of every model has 2 feet of snow up here. And now the NWS is actually teasing the 2 feet mark. Incredible. And the official warning goes for 51 hours straight.

This is going to be an amazing storm for you!! I'm still thinking the ice potential for your house down here and myself still looks good. 

[Bellona]

Since sleet doesn't come up much....are their methods for sleet accural like snow? 10:1, 5:1? Or is it more of a whatever falls type of thing?

[Bellona]

Woo...my gosh.

[Grizzcoat]

Comparing to 1991 Halloween Blizzard - the benchmark for Twin Cities and a lot of Minny-

Records tied or broken during the Halloween Blizzard

Twin Cities[14]
Most snow on October 31	8.2 in (20.8 cm)	0.4 in (1 cm) (1954)
Most snow on November 1	18.5 in (47 cm)	3.6 in (9.1 cm) (1941)
24‑hour snowfall in any season	21.0 in (53.3 cm)	18.5 in (47 cm) (January 23, 1982)
Most single storm snow total	28.4 in (72.9 cm)	20.0 in (50.8 cm) (Jan 22–23, 1982)
Most snow in October	8.2 in (20.8 cm)	5.5 in (14 cm) (1905)
Earliest 8 inch snow	8.2 in (20.8 cm)	8.5 in (21.6 cm) (Nov 8, 1943)
Most snowfall in any month	46.9 in (119.1 cm) (Nov, 1991)	46.4 in (117.9 cm) (Jan, 1982)[17]
Earliest autumn below zero low	−3 °F (−19 °C) (Nov 4)	−1 °F (−18 °C) (Nov 11, 1986)

 

[CentralNebWeather]

13 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Comparing to 1991 Halloween Blizzard - the benchmark for Twin Cities and a lot of Minny-

Records tied or broken during the Halloween Blizzard

Twin Cities[14]
Most snow on October 31	8.2 in (20.8 cm)	0.4 in (1 cm) (1954)
Most snow on November 1	18.5 in (47 cm)	3.6 in (9.1 cm) (1941)
24‑hour snowfall in any season	21.0 in (53.3 cm)	18.5 in (47 cm) (January 23, 1982)
Most single storm snow total	28.4 in (72.9 cm)	20.0 in (50.8 cm) (Jan 22–23, 1982)
Most snow in October	8.2 in (20.8 cm)	5.5 in (14 cm) (1905)
Earliest 8 inch snow	8.2 in (20.8 cm)	8.5 in (21.6 cm) (Nov 8, 1943)
Most snowfall in any month	46.9 in (119.1 cm) (Nov, 1991)	46.4 in (117.9 cm) (Jan, 1982)[17]
Earliest autumn below zero low	−3 °F (−19 °C) (Nov 4)	−1 °F (−18 °C) (Nov 11, 1986)

 

Great blizzard here also on Halloween 1991. Postponed it for a week. If I recall we had 15”, so this map lines up perfectly. 

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

GEM, GFS, FV3, NAM, and RGEM for Noon Wednesday.

There is a clear odd one out here. Not sure why the NAM is struggling so much with this setup.

Because it’s the NAM. Only thing it’s useful for here is cold air damming. Serves no purpose otherwise.

[Grizzcoat]

Will be interesting not how the  snow amounts add up in the Twin Cities- but if there is a lull. Will Tuesday's snow amounts be counted in the storm(event)  total if it stops snowing for several hours (speaking officially for the record book)-

Pretty sure it never stopped snowing from 11:30AM on OCT 31th till sometime around noon on NOV 3rd- 1991 =72 hours.

[Grizzcoat]

High / Low - melted precip ( WOW 2.83)  -- daily snow and 6am snow depth for Halloween Blizzard KMSP 1991-10-31 32.0 28.0 0.85 8.20 0.00 1991-11-01 32.0 23.0 1.85 18.50 14.00 1991-11-02 23.0 15.0 0.10 1.10 23.00 1991-11-03 18.0 8.0 0.03 0.60 23.00