2/21 - 2/24 Powerhouse Upper Midwest/GL's Winter Storm

[Hawkeye]

Boy, the Euro and UK have really come down with snow totals up in Minnesota over the last couple runs... by 30% for many, even 40% or 50% in a few spots.  That's a bummer.

[gosaints]

Just now, Hawkeye said:

Boy, the Euro and UK have really come down with snow totals up in Minnesota over the last couple runs... by 30%, 40%, or even 50% in a few spots.  That's a bummer.

Dry are intrusions are always a wildcard and you can really see it tomorrow.  This first WAA wing looks relatively impressive

[Icewoz]

16 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Boy, the Euro and UK have really come down with snow totals up in Minnesota over the last couple runs... by 30% for many, even 40% or 50% in a few spots.  That's a bummer.

Like I always say, decrease whatever the models say by 3/4ths and you have a good approximation of what is going to happen.

[Bellona]

16 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

You can chill out about the ice storm, they are extremely difficult to forecast and the transition line between snow and rain is so muddled with models no one really knows what's going to happen. Not even accuweather and wunderground are in agreement in the location I'm watching. None of the models have been doing really well lately so be prepared for the 

Fine, I'll just be a lurker from now on, since apparently everyone else can post 3000 snowfall maps but, hey, **** me right?

[tStacsh]

5 minutes ago, Bellona said:

Fine, I'll just be a lurker from now on, since apparently everyone else can post 3000 snowfall maps but, hey, **** me right?

You mean the constant Kuchera maps of near 30" snowfalls aren't realistic?  lol

[james1976]

Figures....last minute the Euro and Ukie start cutting totals. Hopefully not a trend.

[Money]

1 minute ago, tStacsh said:

You mean the constant Kuchera maps of near 30" snowfalls aren't realistic?  lol

If the models showed 30 inches for you constantly I think you would be pretty excited but whatever…

[Hawkeye]

1 hour ago, Bellona said:

Ice potential. Euro also never has Waterloo above freezing. Kinda wavers on precipitation there for a bit then ramps it up later on.

I've never been excited about much ice down here in CR.  Maybe we'll get a bit of glaze, but most will probably be rain.  Highway 20 has a much better chance of meaningful ice.

[tStacsh]

6 minutes ago, Money said:

If the models showed 30 inches for you constantly I think you would be pretty excited but whatever…

Yes, my point is the models ARE showing bad icing.  And like snow, it may or may not verify, so complaining about either seems silly.  

[Money]

5 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Yes, my point is the models ARE showing bad icing.  And like snow, it may or may not verify, so complaining about either seems silly.  

I agree it’s silly to complain about it but ice is way way harder to predict than snow especially when it’s marginal temps for ice 

[Madtown]

HRRR for the win. book it

[tStacsh]

12 minutes ago, Money said:

I agree it’s silly to complain about it but ice is way way harder to predict than snow especially when it’s marginal temps for ice 

For sure.  Especially when even snow maps seem to hardly verify these days! lol

[tStacsh]

Winter storm warning for sleet and ice:

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to four tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45
  mph.

 

[Money]

Ice storm warning issued for the extreme southern part of Milwaukee area 

[East Dubzz]

Winter Storm Watch here..

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total ice
  accumulations of one tenth to three tenths of an inch, with
  snow accumulations of less than one inch possible. Winds could
  gust as high as 40 mph.

I'm definitely in an interesting area for ice potential. Not sure what to think. 

[gimmesnow]

Ice storm warning here too. WSW for Portage 3-6 with ice. Only outlier saying it's going to be all snow there is Wunderground. Doesn't look too good for me and my snowboard trip. Might as well get some extra food and stuff this afternoon, for the storm, and maybe I'll be lucky enough to use it on a snowboard trip.

[WinterSquall23]

Ummm.  Not good

ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of two
to five tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb and Washtenaw
Counties.

* WHEN...From noon Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and sleet is expected to develop
around noon Wednesday and become all sleet before changing to
freezing rain late in the day. Freezing rain will continue in
the evening with significant icing occuring before tapering off
Wednesday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.

&&

 

[westMJim]

In looking at the write up I get the feeling that for some reason the NWS Grand Rapids is kind of downplaying this event. Anyway here is some information on some past ice events in southern Lower Michigan. From channel 4's Paul Gross, Meteorologist out of Detroit.

New Year’s Eve / Day 1984-85:
Of all times to get an ice storm, New Year’s Eve has to be one of the worst. Freezing rain, light at first, moved into the area New Year’s Eve afternoon, and then became heavy overnight. I was in Lansing for that one, which was hit very hard. In fact, I vividly remember looking out my hotel room window and seeing the rain coming down as heavy as if it was a summertime thunderstorm. I then turned on The Weather Channel, and the current temperature was 28 degrees. The next morning, it took me thirty minutes to get enough ice chipped off my car just to get a door opened so I could start it and get the defrosters on. I also remember that the rain / ice line barely moved during the duration of this storm. In fact, that line hovered around 14 Mile Road, and I remember somebody telling me that the north end of the Oakland Mall parking lot was icy, while the south end of the lot was just wet!
March 13-14, 1997:
This ice storm hit the central part of our area with a lot of ice. I cannot get out of my mind how many limbs came down in my backyard as a result. It truly looked as if a bomb hit the backyard…there was that much lumber strewn across the yard, including one big limb that came down so hard that it impaled itself in the ground.

It took me about six hours to get all of those limbs cut up and dragged down to the street – my city (Farmington Hills) scheduled emergency yard waste pickup to help us all out. Otherwise, all of that would have sat there for another month. An estimated 425,000 home and businesses lost power, some for nearly a week. I was one of those, and spent that week at my mother-in-law’s condo…she had power.
April 4, 2003:
This was similar in nature to the March 1997 ice storm. A total of 500,000 homes and businesses lost power as a result of up to an inch of ice accumulation. My memory of this ice storm involves neighbors helping neighbors. A limb came down on my side of my street and took out a power line, so those of us on that side lost power. However, everybody across the street still had theirs. So we all ran extension cords across the street to our neighbors’ houses! I was without power for five days, and some in the northern half of Oakland County, which was hit the hardest, were without power for a week. Yes, by the way, it was another week at my mother-in-law’s.

Computer models have been consistent in projecting a half-inch or more of ice across especially the northern and western parts of our area. But something else to consider is the wind, which could gust near or over 40 mph overnight Saturday night / early Sunday morning. This wind adds a considerable load onto ice-laden trees and power lines, which will only bring down more limbs and lines.

And here is the bench mark ice storm in my life time.
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2016/03/great_ice_storm_of_1976.html
As I stated at this time it seems to me that the NWS is downplaying this event so maybe we will luck out.

[Icewoz]

6 minutes ago, WinterSquall23 said:

Ummm.  Not good

ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow and sleet
accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of two
to five tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb and Washtenaw
Counties.

* WHEN...From noon Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow and sleet is expected to develop
around noon Wednesday and become all sleet before changing to
freezing rain late in the day. Freezing rain will continue in
the evening with significant icing occuring before tapering off
Wednesday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. Prepare for possible power outages.

&&

 

I'm in the far SE corner of Oakland County so I doubt we'll see much from this. Way to close to the warm air. Darn it.

[jcwxguy]

[westMJim]

OK, in looking at the forecast for Grand Rapids there now looks like there is a chance of 1 to 2" of snow/sleet and up to a half inch of ice with the expected winds near 40 MPH that is not good at all

[Iceresistance]

Me, @OKwx2k4, and @Black Hole are under a Slight Risk for Severe Storms for Tonight.

[tStacsh]

20 minutes ago, westMJim said:

OK, in looking at the forecast for Grand Rapids there now looks like there is a chance of 1 to 2" of snow/sleet and up to a half inch of ice with the expected winds near 40 MPH that is not good at all

Nope,  not good.   People see 1-2" of sleet and thinks it's fine.   Also not a lot of people are aware of what over .10" can do to disrupt things.  

[WinterSquall23]

39 minutes ago, Icewoz said:

I'm in the far SE corner of Oakland County so I doubt we'll see much from this. Way to close to the warm air. Darn it.

Yeah I notice in Oakland county there are micro climates between the I96 and I59 corridors.  We live close to M59 so I am thinking we are on the high end of this.  Seems to rain south of the I96 a lot this winter. 

[tStacsh]

It's amazing how I96 and I94 in Michigan are always the dividing lines in p-type for seemingly 90% of storms.  Almost like they planned it.  

[james1976]

Started lightly snowing a couple hours. Slowly picked up to a steady snow now. Latest forecast is 16-21" total.

[Money]

Final GFS run before go time really with the first wave 

[Andie]

Wow,  It’s currently 86 at 5 pm.  
May hit 87 before the sun dips.  

Tomorrow we’ll have a 60% chance of rain and 79-80*
I suppose our snow chances are pretty low.  

[gimmesnow]

Pretty cool temp gradient.

[Stormgeek]

Got snow currently both north and south of me and radar not looking very promising...

[sholomar]

This is actually impressing me so far... looks like we'll hit the foot.. Brookings is already a huge mess with the snow we've gotten so far.  Off work tomorrow and Thursday just going to relax and enjoy the show.  Suddenly they are saying we will get 4 inches overnight tonight instead of the inch they were predicting... that first wave going further south?

 

[East Dubzz]

We’ll see if it verifies, but definitely seeming like it could get pretty nasty around here.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, jcwxguy said:

Will add this. I cannot remember ever seeing a single storm give almost every county in the entire state of MI a winter headline. Gotta be some kind of unofficial record. Closest I can think of that may have done similar would've been Jan '78 bliz. I know that included E Yoopland, but I have little data on western Yoopland headlines. 

[Black Hole]

On the southern end of this thing we have a severe weather risk Wednesday morning. SPC with a slight. Looks like a good set up for some scattered severe wind reports. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a tornado or two or some isolated hail but mostly this doesn't look like too big a deal. 

[jaster220]

Found myself in some whiteout squalls coming off of Superior this afternoon in the Yoop! Had 3-5" there overnight and the wind gusts were 35+. First time I ever drove across the Mighty Mac when it was gusty. I'm already not fond of heights but adding a buffeting wind trying to push your car towards the edge was downright scary. They were escorting high profile vehicles at 20 mph. I just gripped hard both hands no looking down! LOL

[james1976]

Eyeballing 2" so far. Been mainly a light snow event. Looks like better returns in south central and southeast MN.

[Madtown]

See how the snowboard looks come Thursday....

[Niko]

Its going to be a nightmare in Macomb County and of course plenty of other places as well.. They are calling for several inches of snow here in mby and ice accumulations on top of that. Tough forecast for sure, when it comes to ice. Temps tomorrow stay below freezing. Gotta keep an eye and see how far that WF makes it north.

Btw: Snowfall running way BN here in the DTW metro airport. Not seeing this number going too far. Currently, I think we are at 17 or 18" for the season.

 

[gimmesnow]

6 minutes ago, Niko said:

Its going to be a nightmare in Macomb County and of course plenty of other places as well.. They are calling for several inches of snow here in mby and ice accumulations on top of that. Tough forecast for sure, when it comes to ice. Temps tomorrow stay below freezing. Gotta keep an eye and see how far that WF makes it north.

Btw: Snowfall running way BN here in the DTW metro airport. Not seeing this number going too far. Currently, I think we are at 17 or 18" for the season.

 

Snowing a bit at Cascade but wunderground took out the 1 or 2 inches of accumulation for the night. But ski hills always have an advantage because the runs are usually surrounded by trees which gives the runs more snow than what officially falls. I think I'm gonna make a trip out of it, looking at next week there's half an inch of rain on monday, I think I'll take the risk of sleet and wet snow for snowboarding considering next week will definitely be icy runs.

[jaster220]

18 minutes ago, Niko said:

Its going to be a nightmare in Macomb County and of course plenty of other places as well.. They are calling for several inches of snow here in mby and ice accumulations on top of that. Tough forecast for sure, when it comes to ice. Temps tomorrow stay below freezing. Gotta keep an eye and see how far that WF makes it north.

Btw: Snowfall running way BN here in the DTW metro airport. Not seeing this number going too far. Currently, I think we are at 17 or 18" for the season.

 

Not liking the trends for our backyards friend. Just like last week's event, the last minute south move on all the models/maps have me concerned for Canton despite the current WWA forecast from DTX. We got a good glazing last week and this looks to be worse with an ISW just to our west. Another issue for me is that I'm up north and have to travel home in all this tomorrow.