2/21 - 2/24 Powerhouse Upper Midwest/GL's Winter Storm

[Money]

GFS ensembles are identical to 6z. Placement and snowfall almost identical 

[uticasnow]

18 minutes ago, Money said:

Ukie on the other hand..

Can you post this with a more east view of the map please?

[Money]

[uticasnow]

Just now, Money said:

Thanks

[Money]

Euro is a tad south with the first wave 

[Money]

Euro coming in colder as well with the second wave. Snow all the way down in Milwaukee..Michigan gets hit good this run 

 

maps will be up soon 

[gimmesnow]

Thanks Money

[Money]

Euro 10:1 maps 

[Money]

Here was 0z..

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Euro brings snow farther south into Nebraska. This would be a nice refresher. 

[Money]

Pretty similar to Ukie for the most part although Ukie is farther south with the snow on the southern end 

[james1976]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Looks like Wednesday morning will be your best chance to shoot up there. The lowest 6-hr period that I could find ends at Noon on Wednesday, at least per the 00z Euro. Although from Noon-6PM it shows only an inch or so falling at MSP. Then it really starts cranking after 6PM. 06z GFS showed less of a lull in that afternoon slot and it's lowest 6-hr period was also the time slot ending at Noon.

So definitely seems like prior to Noon is your best bet on both models.

 

Thanks for the detailed reply! Appreciate it. My plans have actually changed and it looks like I won't be going to IA at all now so I'll be up here for the entire event.

[Money]

22 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z Euro brings snow farther south into Nebraska. This would be a nice refresher. 

Can you post Kutchera one for the Midwest?

 

thanks

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, Money said:

Can you post Kutchera one for the Midwest?

 

thanks

Here you go. 

[sholomar]

I'm in Brookings County South Dakota but my father's in Ozaukee County WI. He's been disappointed by the snow this season and wants a big one, so this one will definitely be interesting given how close the snow line it is to that location.

[james1976]

That 29.6 is very close to my location. Wow. The consistency is crazy 

[Stormgeek]

Looking like this should be a fun ride. Still plenty of time left, but pretty incredible model consistency. Just a few miles north of the outer loop of Minmeapolis here and looking good. Trends seem to be favoring just south of here for the maximums at this point, but man this looks like it will be a fun one. Curious to see what the watches say when they are released. Let it snow!

[gimmesnow]

Good thing most of the ride between my place and Cascade is via highway or else I don't think I'd be making it home Thursday night from Columbia county. If this really happens it's going to be one of the craziest snowboarding days I've ever had in Wisconsin. Euro has cascade more or less right on the 12in line right now. And it's not going to snow where I actually live which means the drive won't be bad. Hope it can be dry and nice snow.

[Money]

EPS QPF 

[Money]

NAM is back south with the first wave 

[james1976]

Just issued. Awesome!

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of greater
  than 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph and
  lead to areas of blowing snow, blizzard conditions possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central,
  southeast and west central Minnesota and northwest and west
  central Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commutes. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could
  cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will be two main waves of this event.
  The first Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning will see
  totals of 4 to 8 inches of snow. There will be a lull before
  snow picks up again Wednesday evening where an additional 8 or
  more inches of snow could fall.

[hawkstwelve]

Got a WSW just posted for here as well. 

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations of
  9 to 16 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible.
  Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Minnesota and east central and
  southeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.
  The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute. Strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees and
  power lines. The cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero Thursday
  could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30
  minutes.

[Icewoz]

Detroit area peeps, don’t get too excited about this storm…here it is…huge, informative right up by DTX only to be ended with this paragraph:

 Forecaster Reasoning

000
FXUS63 KDTX 192057
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
357 PM EST 

“A notable trend shows up in today`s data for the late week period. A
more aggressive dry slot over southern Lower MI could shorten the
event by Thursday morning along with a farther north surface low
position in Lower MI in the afternoon. This also keeps deformation
snow farther north in the Great Lakes”

[uticasnow]

Of course, we would not expect anything else....

[Money]

GFS nudged south again with first wave 

[Money]

GFS joined the euro/Ukie for second wave. Milwaukee area will like this. Maps in 5 mins or so 

[hawkstwelve]

GFS keeps trending snowier for FSD. Over 20 inches for both FSD and MSP. Wow.

[Money]

18z GFS

[hawkstwelve]

Further east...

[Money]

Ice 

[MKEstorm]

11 minutes ago, Money said:

GFS joined the euro/Ukie for second wave. Milwaukee area will like this. Maps in 5 mins or so 

Ya, it looks like I’ll be staying in the cold precip throughout this storm…some snow..then sleet! Looks the the freezing rain is trending south of MKE. That’s all I need is snow, then sleet on top of that. Not too fun too shovel

[Bellona]

Gfs would be nearly all sleet here. Yuck. 

[gabel23]

Clearly, the forecaster out of Minneapolis is a hockey fan… Or sports fan in general! Might be one of the best discos I’ve ever read!

MAJOR WINTER STORM, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No significant changes were made to this forecast versus the
previous forecast. A major winter storm remains on track to bring
heavy snow along with gusty winds and drifting snow across the
region. I want to put this Winter storm into into context for the
wider audience. This system has maintained remarkable consistency in
model and ensemble guidance going back several days. This itself is
a rare feat for any system. This storm is a high floor, high ceiling
event. What does that mean? There are high probabilities (75 to 90+
percent) that many locations in our forecast area will see a foot of
snow by the time it ends Thursday night. This would be considered
our "floor" or the lower limit of the potential outcomes. We`ll call
this the "if everything goes wrong" scenario. The "ceiling" or upper
limit of the potential outcomes or the "if everything goes right"
scenario. The ceiling for the entire event is around 2 feet of snow.
In hockey, every team wants to draft a prospect that has a high
floor/high ceiling because if they only hit their floor, it`s still
an impact player on the bottom 6 of your team. But, if they can hit
the ceiling, you`re getting a superstar type player that doesn`t
come around often. You know the type. Back to the Meteorology.

A high floor/high ceiling event that has remarkable run to run
consistency is an unicorn. But we`re still 48 to 60 hours out from
when W MN will see the first edge of precipitation move in from the
Dakotas so there is plenty of time for things to change with respect
to the forecast. If things trend toward the floor, it`s still a
major winter storm with significant impacts.

[sholomar]

New Keloland projections. They tend to be pretty accurate.

 

[hawkstwelve]

18z Euro shifted slightly south vs 12z. FSD went from 12 to 17 inches. A nice little improvement for parts of NE too.

[Money]

Keep it coming 

[Madtown]

yuck that's no good

[Bellona]

[Money]

0z NAM with a decent shift south with the first wave 

[ATW]

5 hours ago, james1976 said:

Just issued. Awesome!

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of greater
  than 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph and
  lead to areas of blowing snow, blizzard conditions possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central,
  southeast and west central Minnesota and northwest and west
  central Wisconsin.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commutes. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could
  cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There will be two main waves of this event.
  The first Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning will see
  totals of 4 to 8 inches of snow. There will be a lull before
  snow picks up again Wednesday evening where an additional 8 or
  more inches of snow could fall.

This could end up a top 10 snow storm for you. 

[Bellona]

[Stacsh]

Turning into nothing for me.  Which is good don’t want ice.  Looks like some snow and sleet and a big dry slot.  

[Bellona]

[james1976]

Major snowstorm for the MN home and potential ice storm for the IA home. Crazy 

[jaster220]

28 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Turning into nothing for me.  Which is good don’t want ice.  Looks like some snow and sleet and a big dry slot.  

You wanna see "nothing", come over to Wayneland, lol. We'll show you NOTHING. It's so nothing you can totally miss it when it happens

[Bellona]

5 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Major snowstorm for the MN home and potential ice storm for the IA home. Crazy 

It's been a while since we have had an honest ice storm here. The 30mph winds would spell some trouble too!

[james1976]

5 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Clearly, the forecaster out of Minneapolis is a hockey fan… Or sports fan in general! Might be one of the best discos I’ve ever read!

MAJOR WINTER STORM, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No significant changes were made to this forecast versus the
previous forecast. A major winter storm remains on track to bring
heavy snow along with gusty winds and drifting snow across the
region. I want to put this Winter storm into into context for the
wider audience. This system has maintained remarkable consistency in
model and ensemble guidance going back several days. This itself is
a rare feat for any system. This storm is a high floor, high ceiling
event. What does that mean? There are high probabilities (75 to 90+
percent) that many locations in our forecast area will see a foot of
snow by the time it ends Thursday night. This would be considered
our "floor" or the lower limit of the potential outcomes. We`ll call
this the "if everything goes wrong" scenario. The "ceiling" or upper
limit of the potential outcomes or the "if everything goes right"
scenario. The ceiling for the entire event is around 2 feet of snow.
In hockey, every team wants to draft a prospect that has a high
floor/high ceiling because if they only hit their floor, it`s still
an impact player on the bottom 6 of your team. But, if they can hit
the ceiling, you`re getting a superstar type player that doesn`t
come around often. You know the type. Back to the Meteorology.

A high floor/high ceiling event that has remarkable run to run
consistency is an unicorn. But we`re still 48 to 60 hours out from
when W MN will see the first edge of precipitation move in from the
Dakotas so there is plenty of time for things to change with respect
to the forecast. If things trend toward the floor, it`s still a
major winter storm with significant impacts.

Just awesome. I was about to post the same thing haha. 

[hawkstwelve]

00z GFS shows 2 inch/hr rates from midnight to 3AM Thursday for FSD and roughly 6AM-9AM for MSP. 

[Money]

Another consistent run with not much changes 

[hawkstwelve]

Some Canadian trends. Overall a shift south from it's 12z and closer to it's 00z run from last night.