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2/21 - 2/24 Powerhouse Upper Midwest/GL's Winter Storm


Tom

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28 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Turning into nothing for me.  Which is good don’t want ice.  Looks like some snow and sleet and a big dry slot.  

You wanna see "nothing", come over to Wayneland, lol. We'll show you NOTHING. It's so nothing you can totally miss it when it happens

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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5 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Clearly, the forecaster out of Minneapolis is a hockey fan… Or sports fan in general! Might be one of the best discos I’ve ever read!

MAJOR WINTER STORM, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No significant changes were made to this forecast versus the
previous forecast. A major winter storm remains on track to bring
heavy snow along with gusty winds and drifting snow across the
region. I want to put this Winter storm into into context for the
wider audience. This system has maintained remarkable consistency in
model and ensemble guidance going back several days. This itself is
a rare feat for any system. This storm is a high floor, high ceiling
event. What does that mean? There are high probabilities (75 to 90+
percent) that many locations in our forecast area will see a foot of
snow by the time it ends Thursday night. This would be considered
our "floor" or the lower limit of the potential outcomes. We`ll call
this the "if everything goes wrong" scenario. The "ceiling" or upper
limit of the potential outcomes or the "if everything goes right"
scenario. The ceiling for the entire event is around 2 feet of snow.
In hockey, every team wants to draft a prospect that has a high
floor/high ceiling because if they only hit their floor, it`s still
an impact player on the bottom 6 of your team. But, if they can hit
the ceiling, you`re getting a superstar type player that doesn`t
come around often. You know the type. Back to the Meteorology.

A high floor/high ceiling event that has remarkable run to run
consistency is an unicorn. But we`re still 48 to 60 hours out from
when W MN will see the first edge of precipitation move in from the
Dakotas so there is plenty of time for things to change with respect
to the forecast. If things trend toward the floor, it`s still a
major winter storm with significant impacts.

Just awesome. I was about to post the same thing haha. 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z Euro shows 15 inches falling at FSD in the 6-hour period ending 6AM Thursday.

index-5.png

15”/6hrs is something you’d typically see in a lake effect band or deformation band in a nor’easter. Impressive to see those rates all the way up there.

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Those "low end" amounts stretching E  into the Twin Cities are concerning. Infrastructure -- even for S.MN --- are going to be pressed to the max not neccs with the amounts - but the duration of the event. Removal of snow is basically not going to happen where it needs to be done.   

One must remember TC metro has  population near 3 million-- subs add another million or more--- this is a bigger deal than even Buffalo had few months back. And the snow doesn't melt on the next wind shift like it does out East.

infrastructure is not so "structures" -- as it seems- but more like not being able to see at a high traffic intersection because of snow piles --- many accidents due to this in NOV 1991 in the Twin Cities.  Been through it before in 1991 and 1982. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Yet another healthy snowfall heading for the mountains of AZ.  My goodness, the ski resorts of loving this years pattern and it doesn't appear its going to stop as we head into MAR.  Blessings from mother nature.  The winds are going to be blowing!

Quote

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
246 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2023

AZZ004-006>008-011-015>017-038-039-210000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WS.A.0002.230222T0300Z-230223T0600Z/
Kaibab Plateau-Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-
Yavapai County Mountains-Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Including the cities of Fredonia, Jacob Lake,
Grand Canyon Village, Valle, Prescott, Window Rock, Ganado,
Flagstaff, Happy Jack, Show Low, Greer, and Sedona
246 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2023 /246 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2023/

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 12 inches possible, with higher
  accumulations over the highest peaks. Winds could gust as high
  as 60 to 70 mph.

* WHERE...Areas near Alpine, Buffalo Pass, Doney Park,
  Flagstaff, Forest Lakes, Fredonia, Ganado, Grand Canyon, Heber-
  Overgaard, Jacob Lake, North Rim, Pinetop-Lakeside, Prescott,
  Prescott Valley, Sedona, Seligman, Shonto, Show Low, Valle,
  Whiteriver, Williams and Window Rock.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.
  The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute. Very strong winds could cause extensive tree damage.

  Snow forecast from 8 PM Tuesday to 11 PM Wednesday:

         Alpine  5 to 9  inches    Buffalo Pass  4 to 8  inches
     Doney Park  5 to 9  inches       Flagstaff  6 to 10 inches
   Forest Lakes 12 to 18 inches        Fredonia  1 to 3  inches
         Ganado  2 to 4  inches    Grand Canyon  4 to 6  inches
Heber-Overgaard  4 to 8  inches      Jacob Lake  4 to 8  inches
      North Rim  6 to 10 inches  Pinetop-Lkside  7 to 11 inches
       Prescott  1 to 3  inches Prescott Valley  1 to 3  inches
         Sedona  3 to 5  inches        Seligman  2 to 4  inches
         Shonto  2 to 4  inches        Show Low  5 to 9  inches
          Valle  3 to 5  inches      Whiteriver  4 to 8  inches
       Williams  5 to 9  inches     Window Rock  2 to 4  inches

 

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3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Those "low end" amounts stretching E  into the Twin Cities are concerning. Infrastructure -- even for S.MN --- are going to be pressed to the max not neccs with the amounts - but the duration of the event. Removal of snow is basically not going to happen where it needs to be done.   

One must remember TC metro has  population near 3 million-- subs add another million or more--- this is a bigger deal than even Buffalo had few months back. And the snow doesn't melt on the next wind shift like it does out East.

infrastructure is not so "structures" -- as it seems- but more like not being able to see at a high traffic intersection because of snow piles --- many accidents due to this in NOV 1991 in the Twin Cities.  Been through it before in 1991 and 1982. 

I have given alot of thought to this. I had the opportunity  to witness 3 heavy snows in the Mid-Atlantic  area having lived in the piedmont  at about 1050ft elevation 1983, 1996, 2016 all possibly over 40 inch events! All is paralyzed. In 2016 we went to plow for a cousins landscaping  business north of Baltimore  and without  plowing the streets and roads we couldnt even get to the businesses!  All was shut down for days! In fact on the 5th day many popular  businesses  were still closed, like pharmacies and convenience stores! In 1983 6 hours of snowfall rates  of 4 to 5 inches per hour literally  left  thousands  stranded on highways! One friends home was half mile from i-70 and he took in 30 stranded drivers! Most  Midwestern folks rarely if ever seen that, except in blizzard  conditions  in open areas. My company  could go to Minn and help but it is quite stressful. 

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This sounds fun.

 

Freezing rain and sleet before 1am, then freezing rain between 1am and 4am, then freezing rain and sleet after 4am. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 

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1 minute ago, james1976 said:

Go!

Although your area is looking to get pounded too.

My bet now would be go but the 1st wave is a wildcard to me.  Not much wind in the 1st wave so will probably hold out and see where it looks to develop late tomorrow afternoon.

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