2/21 - 2/24 Powerhouse Upper Midwest/GL's Winter Storm

[Bellona]

[Stacsh]

Turning into nothing for me.  Which is good don’t want ice.  Looks like some snow and sleet and a big dry slot.  

[Bellona]

[james1976]

Major snowstorm for the MN home and potential ice storm for the IA home. Crazy 

[jaster220]

28 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Turning into nothing for me.  Which is good don’t want ice.  Looks like some snow and sleet and a big dry slot.  

You wanna see "nothing", come over to Wayneland, lol. We'll show you NOTHING. It's so nothing you can totally miss it when it happens

[Bellona]

5 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Major snowstorm for the MN home and potential ice storm for the IA home. Crazy 

It's been a while since we have had an honest ice storm here. The 30mph winds would spell some trouble too!

[james1976]

5 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Clearly, the forecaster out of Minneapolis is a hockey fan… Or sports fan in general! Might be one of the best discos I’ve ever read!

MAJOR WINTER STORM, TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No significant changes were made to this forecast versus the
previous forecast. A major winter storm remains on track to bring
heavy snow along with gusty winds and drifting snow across the
region. I want to put this Winter storm into into context for the
wider audience. This system has maintained remarkable consistency in
model and ensemble guidance going back several days. This itself is
a rare feat for any system. This storm is a high floor, high ceiling
event. What does that mean? There are high probabilities (75 to 90+
percent) that many locations in our forecast area will see a foot of
snow by the time it ends Thursday night. This would be considered
our "floor" or the lower limit of the potential outcomes. We`ll call
this the "if everything goes wrong" scenario. The "ceiling" or upper
limit of the potential outcomes or the "if everything goes right"
scenario. The ceiling for the entire event is around 2 feet of snow.
In hockey, every team wants to draft a prospect that has a high
floor/high ceiling because if they only hit their floor, it`s still
an impact player on the bottom 6 of your team. But, if they can hit
the ceiling, you`re getting a superstar type player that doesn`t
come around often. You know the type. Back to the Meteorology.

A high floor/high ceiling event that has remarkable run to run
consistency is an unicorn. But we`re still 48 to 60 hours out from
when W MN will see the first edge of precipitation move in from the
Dakotas so there is plenty of time for things to change with respect
to the forecast. If things trend toward the floor, it`s still a
major winter storm with significant impacts.

Just awesome. I was about to post the same thing haha. 

[Money]

Another consistent run with not much changes 

[james1976]

Consistently 2 feet runs for MSP. Just crazy

[Madtown]

This would be historic for sure! BRING IT ON!!!

[Phil]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z Euro shows 15 inches falling at FSD in the 6-hour period ending 6AM Thursday.

15”/6hrs is something you’d typically see in a lake effect band or deformation band in a nor’easter. Impressive to see those rates all the way up there.

[sholomar]

90% chance of 11 inches with a range of 11-17 inches for me.  Maybe my father in Ozaukee county WI might get lucky too!

 

[Grizzcoat]

Those "low end" amounts stretching E  into the Twin Cities are concerning. Infrastructure -- even for S.MN --- are going to be pressed to the max not neccs with the amounts - but the duration of the event. Removal of snow is basically not going to happen where it needs to be done.   

One must remember TC metro has  population near 3 million-- subs add another million or more--- this is a bigger deal than even Buffalo had few months back. And the snow doesn't melt on the next wind shift like it does out East.

infrastructure is not so "structures" -- as it seems- but more like not being able to see at a high traffic intersection because of snow piles --- many accidents due to this in NOV 1991 in the Twin Cities.  Been through it before in 1991 and 1982. 

[Money]

GFS

[Tom]

0z EPS...locked from SD/S & C MN and into Wisco as well as N/C Lower MI...

 

[Tom]

Yet another healthy snowfall heading for the mountains of AZ.  My goodness, the ski resorts of loving this years pattern and it doesn't appear its going to stop as we head into MAR.  Blessings from mother nature.  The winds are going to be blowing!

Quote

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
246 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2023

AZZ004-006>008-011-015>017-038-039-210000-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WS.A.0002.230222T0300Z-230223T0600Z/
Kaibab Plateau-Grand Canyon Country-Coconino Plateau-
Yavapai County Mountains-Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau-
Western Mogollon Rim-Eastern Mogollon Rim-White Mountains-
Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons-Black Mesa Area-
Including the cities of Fredonia, Jacob Lake,
Grand Canyon Village, Valle, Prescott, Window Rock, Ganado,
Flagstaff, Happy Jack, Show Low, Greer, and Sedona
246 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2023 /246 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2023/

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 12 inches possible, with higher
  accumulations over the highest peaks. Winds could gust as high
  as 60 to 70 mph.

* WHERE...Areas near Alpine, Buffalo Pass, Doney Park,
  Flagstaff, Forest Lakes, Fredonia, Ganado, Grand Canyon, Heber-
  Overgaard, Jacob Lake, North Rim, Pinetop-Lakeside, Prescott,
  Prescott Valley, Sedona, Seligman, Shonto, Show Low, Valle,
  Whiteriver, Williams and Window Rock.

* WHEN...From Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.
  The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute. Very strong winds could cause extensive tree damage.

  Snow forecast from 8 PM Tuesday to 11 PM Wednesday:

         Alpine  5 to 9  inches    Buffalo Pass  4 to 8  inches
     Doney Park  5 to 9  inches       Flagstaff  6 to 10 inches
   Forest Lakes 12 to 18 inches        Fredonia  1 to 3  inches
         Ganado  2 to 4  inches    Grand Canyon  4 to 6  inches
Heber-Overgaard  4 to 8  inches      Jacob Lake  4 to 8  inches
      North Rim  6 to 10 inches  Pinetop-Lkside  7 to 11 inches
       Prescott  1 to 3  inches Prescott Valley  1 to 3  inches
         Sedona  3 to 5  inches        Seligman  2 to 4  inches
         Shonto  2 to 4  inches        Show Low  5 to 9  inches
          Valle  3 to 5  inches      Whiteriver  4 to 8  inches
       Williams  5 to 9  inches     Window Rock  2 to 4  inches

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Those "low end" amounts stretching E  into the Twin Cities are concerning. Infrastructure -- even for S.MN --- are going to be pressed to the max not neccs with the amounts - but the duration of the event. Removal of snow is basically not going to happen where it needs to be done.   

One must remember TC metro has  population near 3 million-- subs add another million or more--- this is a bigger deal than even Buffalo had few months back. And the snow doesn't melt on the next wind shift like it does out East.

infrastructure is not so "structures" -- as it seems- but more like not being able to see at a high traffic intersection because of snow piles --- many accidents due to this in NOV 1991 in the Twin Cities.  Been through it before in 1991 and 1982. 

I have given alot of thought to this. I had the opportunity  to witness 3 heavy snows in the Mid-Atlantic  area having lived in the piedmont  at about 1050ft elevation 1983, 1996, 2016 all possibly over 40 inch events! All is paralyzed. In 2016 we went to plow for a cousins landscaping  business north of Baltimore  and without  plowing the streets and roads we couldnt even get to the businesses!  All was shut down for days! In fact on the 5th day many popular  businesses  were still closed, like pharmacies and convenience stores! In 1983 6 hours of snowfall rates  of 4 to 5 inches per hour literally  left  thousands  stranded on highways! One friends home was half mile from i-70 and he took in 30 stranded drivers! Most  Midwestern folks rarely if ever seen that, except in blizzard  conditions  in open areas. My company  could go to Minn and help but it is quite stressful. 

[MinnesotaSnow]

….and it’s snowing 

[Money]

Don’t have snow maps for 6z euro but looks like it bumped up the QPF in some spots 

1.25-1.5 across eastern WI. 0z was less than that 

[tStacsh]

This sounds fun.

 

Freezing rain and sleet before 1am, then freezing rain between 1am and 4am, then freezing rain and sleet after 4am. The sleet could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 

[Money]

NAM with a big jump north with the first wave 

[Money]

First wave 

[gosaints]

The 1st fronto band will be narrower than modeled and a major nowcast.  

These usually end being 2-3 county wide jack zones. Honestly 12z tomorrow is when I will have any confidence in where that sets up 

[gosaints]

Wife is working in msp this week.  30 hours to decide if I stay or go....

[james1976]

1 minute ago, gosaints said:

Wife is working in msp this week.  30 hours to decide if I stay or go....

Go!

Although your area is looking to get pounded too.

[gosaints]

1 minute ago, james1976 said:

Go!

Although your area is looking to get pounded too.

My bet now would be go but the 1st wave is a wildcard to me.  Not much wind in the 1st wave so will probably hold out and see where it looks to develop late tomorrow afternoon.

[james1976]

Snowing hard currently. Wasn't expecting anything from this clipper. Eyeballing half inch. Doesn't look to last long though.

[Money]

7 minutes ago, gosaints said:

Wife is working in msp this week.  30 hours to decide if I stay or go....

Tough call because your area looks to get hit really good also 

[Money]

NAM would be a huge bust for many except MSP and points north..

[Money]

NAM whole event 

[gosaints]

16 minutes ago, Money said:

NAM would be a huge bust for many except MSP and points north..

Stay the course

[Money]

RGEM first wave hits gosaints area pretty good

[gosaints]

1 minute ago, Money said:

RGEM first wave hits gosaints area pretty good

The whole thing could definitely bust north of many areas but the NAM is the last model I would trust in this set up

[Money]

43 minutes ago, Money said:

First wave 

RGEM first wave 

[Money]

RGEM coming in similar to GFS/UKMET/Euro for the whole system 

[Money]

RGEM Final Totals 

[Bellona]

Icing looking to be quite significant along the Highway 20 corridor. 

[james1976]

Just shoveled driveway. 1 inch down from this clipper.nice appetizer. Still snowing too

[Money]

Icon also took a south jog with the first wave compared to 6z

[gosaints]

Seems to me it would be today's lead wave and where it sets up the battle zone is what the NAM is either getting correct or struggling with

[Money]

Gfs went even farther south with the first wave compared to previous runs. NAM will either score big or look foolish 

[Money]

45 minutes ago, Money said:

RGEM first wave 

GFS first wave 

[Money]

Well..Milwaukee gets nearly a foot of snow this run on the GFS

[Money]

GFS

 

 

[gosaints]

Wow.  If someone gets under.....

1. Fronto number 1

2.  Fronto number 2 

3.  The pivot 

4.  Could be very impressive for the Midwest.

[Money]

Total QPF

[Money]

GFS fzr

[gosaints]

That's a gross amount of zr

[Money]

CMC came in significantly south with the snow at least on the southern end. Had way too much sleet in previous runs 

[Bellona]

Gfs has ice further south than most. Sticks me in about 12 hours of nothing but sleet and a little snow on the end.